klw

not this season

BTV comments on the rate in its new AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Snow: A widespread 6-14" still looks great, with the lowest amounts near the Canadian border. Eastern slopes of the southern Greens, like Ludlow or Rochester, and parts of Essex County, New York, like Keene, Elizabethtown, and Schroon have the best chance for 11-16". This tracks with QPF values, which indicates about a 0.50"-0.75" of liquid in the valleys, and 1.00-1.50" of liquid for favorable eastern slopes. Ratios will likely be lower due to fragmentation of dendrites, but do expect a slight increase during the day as the jet weakens. On the other hand, the impact of a March sun angle will likely keep SLR values a bit lower. Combined with the winds, there could be some blowing snow early along western slopes, but by mid-morning this should subside as north winds trend towards 5 to 10 mph. Snow will continue Saturday afternoon, but warming temperatures will likely limit much accumulation and bring some improved travel conditions. Snowfall Rates: Will add a section to highlight the rates. The 12z data rolling in has some impressive numbers that haven`t been seen this winter. The time frame of heaviest snow is likely between 06z (1 AM) and 12z (7AM) Saturday. Notable is that the eastern slopes feature a greater than 50% chance of 1"/hr snowfall rates for about 6 hours, with a narrow window of 50% or greater of 2"/hr noted. Based on some high res ensembles, it seems possible that eastern slopes of the Adirondacks in Essex County, New York and parts of the southern Greens may even approach 3"/hr snowfall rates in that 06z to 12z Saturday window of time. After 12z, better forcing moves east, and we should see a decline in snowfall rates.

Do you plan on driving out to the airport at sunrise to see it verify?

So you're saying I have a chance:

I am at 77.7" for the season.

Clown map of all clown maps:

Mass folks need to call Lock It on the 12Z GFS before the next model run comes through.

BTV AFD this morning https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Snow: Overall, widespread totals of 6-14" are expected with the lowest amounts occurring along the Canadian border, and highest amounts along the southeast facing slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks. High snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected across the region from midnight through 10 AM Saturday, and areas of blowing snow are likely along the western slopes of the Greens as well. While model QPF amounts have come up by a tenth to quarter inch, our forecast snow amounts were adjusted only slightly upward as uncertainty continues in regard to snow-to-liquid ratios given the height of the DGZ and strong vertical wind shear below it. This will likely contribute to snow crystal fragmentation during the first half of the event tonight, where we`ve kept ratios closer to 10:1. As upper low migrates overhead and the low-level jet weakens, higher snow ratios should be observed on Saturday, though the overall intensity of snowfall will be weakening.

I measured 3.0 new when I got home this evening. So 4.2 for the day. I wonder how much it was before compacting the las 8 hours.

Wow what an awful commute this morning! We started snowing about an inch per hour at home about 5:30am. I left the house at 6:30 and had 1.2 new in that time but was in a slight lull. From getting on I-89 at Exit 2 (mm 13) to exit 5 (mm 41 or so) it was snowing at least 1 inch per hour. At one point north of Randolph visibility was down to about 1/20 of a mile. After exit 5 it lightened almost immediately with almost no snow at all. There were multiple cars off the road as well

BTV's take on the system from the AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean? Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT. Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south.

6.6 " for a total here. My dogs managed to run through 2 of the 3 measuring spots but I think the total is good.

1.1 so far today.

7.0 seems to be the final total here. No sleet ever mixed in so it was a breeze to clear the driveway. very light mist going on but not enough to glaze anything.

I think it was both on Tuesday for a bit though I can't find the HRRR run off hand. It was in this timeframe I think, BTV cut back its snowfall forecast for my area for a brief time in that frame citing the mesos.

They may have gotten the warm tongue eventually but didnt NAM and HRRR show sleet to Canada just 35 to 48 hours out?

6 inches on the nose as of 5:30am

Nah it is more like this:

We briefly warmed up to -18f after the dogs left a couple of steaming piles close to the sensor. Now back to -20.

-20f off a low of -22. We often drop at dawn so I will look to see if we go down over the next couple hours. With this not being a radiational based event where the valley is colder than here, I doubt that will be the case.

The station around the corner from me is sayin -18.9. Our cheap thermometer says -17. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTNORWI24

Kevins is only used as a scale for the measurement of dews.

That is 249.8 Kelvin, however, which sounds much warmer.

Why don't we ever hear TV mets say "It is not the lack of heat, it is the lack of humidity."