klw

exit for Stowe/Waterbury is a tad backed up

From BTV discussion: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 AR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 707 AM EDT Monday...Forecast is on track for high clouds overspreading the forecast area throughout the day, potentially with mid-level, thicker clouds arriving shortly behind. It will be a close one in regards to eclipse viewing. What we know: Highest sky cover appears to be in northern New York counties while lowest sky cover (clearer skies) will be in the Northeast Kingdom. There`s the potential for the clouds to slow as they approach and run up against the ridge, leaving more time for clearer viewing this afternoon. Also, fog is not going to materialize at all this morning. Previous discussion below: Previous discussion... Unfortunately, model guidance continues to inch the sheet of high clouds faster as it progresses southwest to northeast across the forecast area. Based on the current speed of the high clouds that are currently across western New York/Pennsylvania, these will arrive around 12-4 PM, depending on your location across the forecast area. The Northeast Kingdom, being farthest northeast in our forecast area, looks most likely to be the clearest spot at 2 PM today. Even with more sky cover than hoped, we are anticipating an unseasonably warm day today with highs in the mid- to upper 50s in the mountains to lower 60s for the wider valleys, and winds will be somewhat light out of the west/northwest. We`ll likely have a 4-6 degree drop during totality, which could limit temperatures getting higher than the low 60s despite 925mb temperatures potentially in the 6-8 C range.

Only issue with 91 is that it has one lane closed southbound just north of Fairlee due to a rockslide. I don't know if they will have both lanes open today but it has just been the one lane for the past month. It could become a bottleneck point later if it is not fully open.

Traffic was very heavy on I-89 for my commute this morning. Mostly Mass and Ct plates with a other states including green plates mixed in. Easily the heaviest I have seen traffic on 89 except right near Burlington at the height of "rush hour." I got off at Montpelier and came back roads as I assume Stowe is already a mess. Sadly the VT cameras on NE511 are not updating.

1240' elevation. Unsure of the average but probably it is in the 95" range. Range has been 78 to 125 inches. Edit: I just ran the numbers and my 8 year average is 101.2"

Big big winter incoming!

Sorry, I went to bed early last night. I think I did better on 3/23- I had 24.5" with that. If you can see my signature, I have my storm totals for each event this year in it and my yearly for the 7 seasons. We have had this place. I also hit 115" last year. I am at 1240' at the house (sadly about 100 less at the bottom of the drive) so I get bigger numbers than down in the valley in some storms. My placement has been favorable for lots of 8-12" storms these past couple of seasons. I get upslope help with an E or SE flow. Here are my totals for this year in case you can't see signatures (I only just learned you can't on mobile) 2023-24- Total 118.0 Biggest 3/23 24.5 Nov. (13.7) 11/1 T 11/7 2.3 11/14 .6 11/20 .5 11/22 5.5 11/27 4.0 11/28 1.3 11/28 0.5 Dec (8.2) 12/4 7.1 12/11 .7 12/13 0.1 12/30 .3 Jan (37.0) 1/7 10.8 1/8 0.2 1/10 6.0 1/14 3.2 1/16 7.8 1/19 0.1 1/20 0.9 1/24 3.1 1/26 2.0 1/26 2.9 Feb. (5.6) 2/14 1.0 2/16 2.4 2/19 0.4 2/23 1.5 2/29 0.3 Mar (38.0) 3/10 8.5 3/11 0.4 3/20 1.6 3/21 3.0 3/23 24.5 Apr (15.5) 4/3-4/5 15.5

2.3 " overnight, 15.5" for the event now.

I was at 78 prior to 3/23 as well. I am at 115.7 now. 42.3 since 3/20 as I had 4.6 a couple of days prior to the 23rd

spitting lt snow here 13.2" for the event so far

up to 12.5 inches for the storm, 115" for the season

3.9 inches since this. 10.9 total with board clearing.

Up to 10.9 inches now. 5.9 since 6:30am.

Have you told your wife yet about how a bear broke the window in the door yesterday and how you bravely protected the house by fighting it off with your bare hands?

Its really heavy now. Up to 7." Power flickered once but still on.

Snow has really picked up the last 15 minutes

5 inches here, not much on the trees fortunately. Small flakes at the moment,

PDC, how can I explain itI'll take you frame by frame itTo have y'all jumpin' shall we singin' it Exciting isn't it, a special kinda businessMany of you will catch the same sorta PDC is you withHim or her for sure is going to admit itWhen PDC comes, damn-- skippy I'm with it Are you down with PDC? Yeah you know me. Who's down with PDC? Every last homie.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 The probabilistic data has become increasingly concerning across Rutland, with ensemble forecasts depicting a near 100% chance of wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. The forecast soundings indicate the inversion layer just under summit levels with almost due east flow that 65 to 75 knots at the top of the inversion layer. The GFS isobars indicate the potential for significant wave breaking Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night in Rutland County and eastern Addison County. But even outside the core of the upper jet, the potential for winds to mix across eastern Vermont and through the Adirondacks has also increased, warranting a Wind Advisory for a larger part of the region. If there`s any consolation, this comes before much of the wintry weather. These winds could produce downed trees and power lines across the region and produce power outages well before wintry weather takes place.

If looking for an interesting place to watch, there is a viewing party at the Northern Skies Observatory in Peacham. https://www.facebook.com/events/2558212521019104/?ref=newsfeed Here is info on the site/group: https://www.nkaf.org/

Vermont going as far as closing the courts in the northern half of the state for the day. I assume most court offices will follow suit. No they aren't closing Thursday for the storm. https://www.vermontjudiciary.org/news/public-notice-regarding-courthouse-schedules-april-8 April 01, 2024 Public Notice Regarding Courthouse Schedules on April 8 Due to the upcoming solar eclipse event with anticipated road closures and high traffic volume, courthouse schedules will vary by location on April 8. Courthouses in the following counties in the northern part of the state will be physically closed to the public on April 8: Chittenden; Franklin; Grand Isle; Lamoille; Orleans; Caledonia; Essex and Washington. Persons wishing to apply for a relief from abuse order in those counties on April 8 during regular courthouse hours may call 1-800-540-9990. Courthouses in the remaining counties will be open to the public on April 8 (except between 3:15 - 3:45 pm when all courts will be closed): Addison; Orange, Windsor, Rutland, Bennington and Windham.

BTV discussion this morning: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 We know everyone wants to know what the forecast is going to be on Monday. Drum roll please. The forecast for Monday is looking spectacular across the North Country. A strong upper level ridge is slated to move across New England Sunday night with surface high pressure not far behind. With deep layer ridging building on Monday, we should see strong subsidence in the mid to upper levels which is typically tied to drier and more stable conditions. This upcoming ridge will be no exception. Model soundings are beginning to show a plethora of dry air in the mid levels Monday afternoon. We will still likely see a few fair weather cumulus clouds as we should have a weak layer of lift in the low levels but these clouds will likely have limited vertical extent given the subsidence aloft. This should make for great viewing conditions as mostly clear skies are now in the forecast around eclipse time. Dry weather is expected to continue into Tuesday before clouds and precipitation chances begin to increase late Tuesday as another low pressure system tracks toward the Northeast.

I think Powderfreak has been writing the BTV discussion:https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 The biggest change as we enter into the temporal realm of higher-resolution mesoscale and Convection- Allowing Models (CAMs) time range has been a delayed onset of winter precipitation as well as snowfall accumulation. While it is tempting to use straight 10:1 SLRs or kuchera snowfall amounts, the fact that we are two weeks after the start of astronomical spring warrants a closer look at the thermal profiles. While it is not impossible to accumulate snow at 34 degrees with mesoscale banding, the snow does have to come down fast and furious in the valley locales. Besides the sun angle, there is also the potential for a prolonged duration of sleet, which will significantly cut down snowfall amounts in the valleys. All things considered, a better proxy for this upcoming late season winter storm is the positive snow depth change. While far from perfect, it should provide better context on what would most likely occur compared to low probability worst case scenarios depicted by straight 10:1 or kuchera snowfall outputs.

3 post made in a 4 post string.

When asking where will jackpot in virtually any NE storm, Woodford VT is often the answer.