Greg
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Everything posted by Greg
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Better looks don't translate to realism. Use the 10:1 instead. -
Heights will crash better than the Jan 6-7th this time, which is very good for those who have missed out on the most part of this winter, Places like Bedford, Mass Blue Hills (Milton), Boston, Northern Rhode Island, Hartford to Poughkeepsie, NY in that sort of line/corridor should do well in this one and catch up in the snowfall department.
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Misspoke. My bad on that. However, the rest of my statement are indeed correct.
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Of course it's strong. Strongest I have ever seen here is 2.5 Enso in the 2016 Winter. That was extreme on the scale.
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Enso Neutral Negative. (-0.4)
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To me a 0.1-0.4 is Enso neutral positive, 0.5 is Beginning weak. 0.5-1.0 is Weak to Mod, 1.0 is solid Mod, 1.0-1.5 Mod - Strong, 1.5 Beging Strong, 1.5 - 2.0 Strong to very strong, and 2.0 + or higher Super/Extreme whatever floats one's boat for a description.
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Not sure 1.8 for an average is solid strong but moderate to strong for sure depending on the definition. But yes, Big East Coast storm for all the big I-95 cities and suburbia.
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I still mostly use the traditional average ONI's for the main determinant variable. However, the other variables such as the SOI and so forth can help to modify/subvert certain elements in a strong El Nino winter where one can "Buck the trend' in certain circumstances.
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Correct! Thank you sir.
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I did indicate 1983 as you saw I stated. Depends upon one's definition of a big storm. and what area coverage.
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Looks somewhat similar to the swath the January 6-7 storm brought us earlier.
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Not sure I agree totally with that. '78 was a week el nino, '69 was a moderate, 2005 weak, 2015 weak. Only Feb 1983 was strong.
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Not happening this winter. Take what you can get in this strong El Nino.
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Euro would be the storm most in both Central and Southern New England would be waiting for the entire winter.
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18.3 So far on the season.
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You'll get a slight thump of sorts that's for sure.
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I would have been rain the last storm if it was correct.
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Perfect track for the majority here. Excellent, I agree fully.
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Both the Reggie and the GEM have a Canadian warmer bias, this is fairly well known. If those models were correct about the Jan 7th storm we had, I would have been rain through most of the storm, which of course I wasn't.
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With the GEM "Warm Bias" and the GFS "Cold Bias", an in-between compromise would actually be in order here. Euro model will help be the decider.
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Just curious Scott. How far off sure is deemed a good track to you, just curious not trolling. Personally, my favorites are just at to slightly "inside" the Benchmark. This gives us the opportunity for two things. 1. Heaviest precip shield and 2. Close enough but at the same time far enough away from the center to have a mostly if not all snow event with the exception of the "far" South Shore and Cape and Islands.
