Greg

Funny, usually when most of us think of Southeast Mass, we just refer that to Plymouth and Bristol counties. Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket are usually just referred to just the Cape and Islands, not just Southeast, MA in general..

Nah, for us we need a track a few tics south of what the 18Z GFS says, then we'll have something a little more interesting for this time of year on our hands.

I agree what you trying to get at James but it is 6.5 days away right now. That's the whole idea.

It can happen but it is rare. Not sure about 125 years of weather records being an anomaly, but it does show you the state of what the climate in November has been since then. Both Boston and Worcester can get, as we have seen once and a while, 3"-6" and 4"-8" storms. Those are more potentially viable with the right set up as you have alluded to. The only storm in history I have seen in records is the Portland Gale of November 26-27 1898 with a foot or so in Boston proper and about 20" in Worcester.

I remember the news saying they recorded 40" in Hamden. Not sure how accurate it was with the blowing a drifting. Not sure if people used the six hour snowfall increment method or not in that, that makes a difference, but a very potent band was over them for several hours which can be seen on past radars imagery. Very intense!

Yes, for most of us as Will has alluded to earlier, you want that jet streak to be just a tad or two stronger in the upper air flow to keep this thing suppressed just a little bit more.

The Euro is definately for 1st place but infallible it is not.

Haven't spoken with you in a while. Have to admit also quite a spread in the models even considering the bias of them. Just a quick question, when is the best time frame in which the Euro is ideal to look at? Just curious, thanks.

Me thinks it wont be a repeat of last year.

I'll take this potential step down process anytime.

No two patterns are the same.

I think the it's going to be mostly an Enso Neutral Winter but with a slight bias toward positive territory. Just my take on things so far. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I wouldn't say many of course, but if you go back in the record books for the last 60 years or so, this is not unheard of for mid October.

Update: Previous forecast matching up with current expectations so no wholesale changes with this. Watching some rotating convective elements on KOKX radar but as these features move north into the cool sector lose their rotational features. Any severe storms will hinge on how far north warm sector can track. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-3km CAPE remaining south of Long Island and this seems reasonable with offshore buoys in the warm sector with winds veering more to the SSE and dew pts well into the 60s. Mesoanalysis indicates secondary low bombing out near Sandy Hook NJ with pressure down to about 986 mb. However a meso low appears to be forming farther to the southeast well offshore. This meso low may pinch off warm sector and preclude better instability from advecting north. This would lower the probability of severe storms here overnight but can`t discount the risk given mesoscale processes in play here and associated low predictability. Thus will continue to monitor low top convection as it comes onshore into CT/RI and southeast MA overnight.

Nantucket, now that's a place you want to be to see this.

This situation sort of reminds me about in the winter when storms do hit us but because of the super dry airmass or positioning/strength of the high pressure, the snow just has a hell of a time reaching the ground or at about half of it gets eaten up overall. I hope this isn't a harbinger of things to come.

Not sure what you mean but even the Euro had some decent rain in here also. The Euro was never really that dry.

Slightly AN and not for long. I predict October will come in slightly below normal for the temperature when the month is done. But I'm always ready admit that that prediction can still go wrong.Now let me enjoy my light rain/sprinkles.

Radar seems to be starting to fill in now in Eastern Mass all the way to the Northshore. Trekking inland nicely. I will be very curious about what the final amounts will be. Just trying to figure out which model has the best handle on this at this time.

I've been on here for years but I'm well aware of what you mean.

Why? The bigger stuff for us comes in tonight into tomorrow Just like many coastal storms do..

Nah, there would be a rain snow line developing on the far South Shore and would end up tampering expectations just like they do in the true winter months.

You want to really know who's going to see some Sci-Fi action with this storm? Try being right on the Great Guana Cay north of Abaco Sunday at 1PM. Now that is a place to be to see Dorian it's most deadliest. Try your best to take pictures a BE SAFE!!!

I haven't been on here since this past Winter but great to hear from you. But yes, I agree. I fear this Summer will be exactly like this past Winter (Book Ended). The begining, which is now and the end around Late August Early September. By then Fall is around the corner in a good couple of weeks. As I alluded to in my post this will kinda, sorta be one of our traditional wetter Summers with breaks of Sun with Temps mostly in the 70's and 80's. I don't see wide spread 80's and 90's with wall to wall sunshine which some on this board (Not ME) would like to see.