Greg

It's not a minimum of 12"+ wide spread, at least not yet. 8-16" seems to be reasonable at this point. Read the BOX from the National Weather Service I posted earlier.

I think the bottom line of the conversation is that elevation helped in that storm.

Location: Ashford, CT Elevation: 702ft

Generally it's a moderate to heavy snowstorm for many places but major or blockbuster, no. Can't change the definition, based on the impact.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights * A significant winter storm capable of producing heavy snowfall late Wed into Thu afternoon across our region is expected. * The potential exists for at least part of our area to receive over a foot of snow. However, the overall pattern is progressive, which means it is hard-pressed to see snowfall accumulations much over 12 inches. * If the low pressure tracks a little further north, areas towards the south coast and the Cape/Islands will have mixing issues, which will cut down on the snow totals. * The biggest concern with the system will be heavy snowfall rates and given the antecedent cold air mass, snow will accumulate immediately on all surfaces upon onset. A significant winter storm capable of heavy snowfall across much of the region is becoming more likely, with abundant southern stream moisture and antecedent cold air in play for potential significant, plowable snowfall. Mesowest obs show widespread dew points in the single digits with a few spots even below zero, indicative of a fresh injection of cold, dry air mass. The exceptions are the Cape and Islands and areas towards the MA/RI immediate South Coast, where it will mix with and change over to rain. Some uncertainty still remains, however, on the northern edge of heavy snowfall. The 12z guidance has shown a northward trend with the heavy precipitation, which is why we have expanded Winter Storm headlines to include our western and northern zones. Looking at the 12z suite of guidance including the HREF, the system is forecast to remain fairly progressive as the H5 low crosses from NJ into SNE. There are some hints that the H5 low could weaken a little slower between 12z and 18z, but very little to suggest bumping up the current forecast too much. Also, the track of the H5 low is a little further north and its track along the MA/RI south coast would suggest that areas towards and along the MA/RI south coast, including the Cape & Islands will mix likely with and change to rain after an initial thump, which will cut down on snow totals. This also means that areas further N&W will also come into play for heavier snow accumulations, which is why we expanded the Winter Storm Watches to our entire CWA with the morning update. A potential red flag against some of the eye-popping totals shown by deterministic guidance is the relative lack of deepening of the secondary low. Ensemble members keep the low in the high 990s or low 1000s, which indicates a lack of deepening or cyclogenesis required for the system to have more staying power and reduce the potential for totals much higher than a foot at this time. Also, this reduces the chance for blizzard conditions though it will still be quite windy with the pressure gradient thanks to the 1035 mb high to our north. Overall, given the progressive pattern and the deamplifying H5 shortwave, we are inclined to go with a widespread 8-12 inches for our CWA with lesser amounts towards the S Coast. Could some locations get more than a foot? Absolutely, but it is hard pressed to see amounts over 15 inches at this time. The H5 upper low that will play a critical role in the Nor`easter has shown up the water vapor satellite imagery over the Texas Panhandle. A cursory glance seems to suggest that the GFS and NAM have initialized rather well. A closer look suggests that the NAM may have initialized the ridge over the Northern Rockies a little too much. These are very fine margins and subtle differences, but could have an outsized role downstream and storm impacts on our area. Overall, we are becoming more confident of a significant, but not blockbuster winter storm. Widespread accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are forecast, with lesser amounts towards the MA/RI south coast and the Cape and Islands, where it is expected to mix with and change over to rain after the initial thump of snow.

The "Man" loves his work

It does hold more weight though than the others.

0.5" of increase in an air column like that translates to better things for us unless you believe that the dendrite formation will be poor when it hits the ground.

Actually look closer, it did.

Euro brings people back to reality...

Once it gets to a certain Latitude it jerks east/ northeast fast so how far north will it make it.

That's actually not a bad call at this stage. Very close to what I was thinking at this time.

Never say never.

Don't deny the se correction in the end. Seen it many times with these.

The Euro will probably take down the over amped Canadian and NAM solutions and put reality in perspective. Pretty sure of it. It does have its own slight amp but nowhere near those other models.

Actually, Ray in that particular model output is on the line but actually just inside the better banding. The dry slot is actually a little bit north of him verbatim on this.

Usually the Canadian Regional (RGM) is more amped than the Canadian Global (GEM).

I would wait for the big guy "EC" before updating.

You can use the Kuchera but it is a little misleading with the fluff factor potential. It usually over does it. But fun to look at none the less.

You posted it too early my friend. Go to about 66 Hours. That's when the storm is done in all.

We all have to be a little more reasonable on this board for crying out loud. I've seen this happen for years now. Everybody knows the NW bias of the Canadian and NAM models at this juncture. The north tics are obviously there, but not like that where it takes the omega to northern New England in one shift. Come on now! Do many of you think the National Weather Service Mets Boston/Norton, MA are going to take that verbatim? Seriously.

That Storm was lacking a High to the North. This storm has one this time to keep the cold air in.