Greg

Thank you.

The other New Yorker that said ,"look the model gives 15" to New York City but 12" to Boston." I was showing him a temperature contrast.

Relax my man. I just don't like arrogant comments when no real thought is put into them.

Thank you for posting that. You just proved my point. New York stays 15" but Bedford, MA goes up about 5". See, Not a forecast but a hint at the potential and where the fluff factor may be greater.

They give you an idea of the fluff factor potential if everything broke right but are not an exact forecast.

I said if you read carefully Kuchera "Like" not just Kuchera. Air columns do matter here regardless. Can't avoid it in this one.

If we do a kuchera like situation, you would be normal to wetter in the ratio department, Boston would be fluffier but it is negligible here. however you are close to that sleet line/ battle zone.

That's an Eastern MA Coastal Blizzard. But I digress, I'm with ya.

I'm staying up for the Euro.

Eastern, Mass is actually still snowing for a few hours after that. So that makes it interesting to say the least in that HREF model output.

On the 3k NAM, the 8" amount of sediment that Ray dreads seems to be geared towards the Portsmouth, NH area on this one.

Looks good Ray if we take the NAM12k Verbatim.

I don't think it cracks 30F in Lowell at all.

If this model is now in range then it would be a little more than a 12 duration storm. Not a forecast, just an observation from this latest NAM. Seems to slow it down for a Classic Northeaster. Talk about an Eastern Mass Blitz....

I know.... That's what I was sharing with you.

AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 645 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Tonight and Wednesday are quiet and cold. A coastal storm will bring heavy snow, strong winds, and minor coastal flooding to the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds in for late in the workweek into the weekend. Colder than average temperatures for late in the week begin to moderate by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 645 PM update... Diminishing north winds tonight as high pres builds to the north. Just some high clouds overspreading SNE this evening but clouds are thin and shouldn`t have much impact on low temps tonight. Lows ranging from the single numbers north central and west MA to teens elsewhere, except 20s outer Cape and ACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights * A significant winter storm capable of producing heavy snowfall late Wed into Thu afternoon across our region is expected. * The potential exists for at least part of our area to receive over a foot of snow. However, the overall pattern is progressive, which means it is hard-pressed to see snowfall accumulations much over 12 inches. * If the low pressure tracks a little further north, areas towards the south coast and the Cape/Islands will have mixing issues, which will cut down on the snow totals. * The biggest concern with the system will be heavy snowfall rates and given the antecedent cold air mass, snow will accumulate immediately on all surfaces upon onset. A significant winter storm capable of heavy snowfall across much of the region is becoming more likely, with abundant southern stream moisture and antecedent cold air in play for potential significant, plowable snowfall. Mesowest obs show widespread dew points in the single digits with a few spots even below zero, indicative of a fresh injection of cold, dry air mass. The exceptions are the Cape and Islands and areas towards the MA/RI immediate South Coast, where it will mix with and change over to rain. Some uncertainty still remains, however, on the northern edge of heavy snowfall. The 12z guidance has shown a northward trend with the heavy precipitation, which is why we have expanded Winter Storm headlines to include our western and northern zones. Looking at the 12z suite of guidance including the HREF, the system is forecast to remain fairly progressive as the H5 low crosses from NJ into SNE. There are some hints that the H5 low could weaken a little slower between 12z and 18z, but very little to suggest bumping up the current forecast too much. Also, the track of the H5 low is a little further north and its track along the MA/RI south coast would suggest that areas towards and along the MA/RI south coast, including the Cape & Islands will mix likely with and change to rain after an initial thump, which will cut down on snow totals. This also means that areas further N&W will also come into play for heavier snow accumulations, which is why we expanded the Winter Storm Watches to our entire CWA with the morning update. A potential red flag against some of the eye-popping totals shown by deterministic guidance is the relative lack of deepening of the secondary low. Ensemble members keep the low in the high 990s or low 1000s, which indicates a lack of deepening or cyclogenesis required for the system to have more staying power and reduce the potential for totals much higher than a foot at this time. Also, this reduces the chance for blizzard conditions though it will still be quite windy with the pressure gradient thanks to the 1035 mb high to our north. Overall, given the progressive pattern and the deamplifying H5 shortwave, we are inclined to go with a widespread 8-12 inches for our CWA with lesser amounts towards the S Coast. Could some locations get more than a foot? Absolutely, but it is hard pressed to see amounts over 15 inches at this time. The H5 upper low that will play a critical role in the Nor`easter has shown up the water vapor satellite imagery over the Texas Panhandle. A cursory glance seems to suggest that the GFS and NAM have initialized rather well. A closer look suggests that the NAM may have initialized the ridge over the Northern Rockies a little too much. These are very fine margins and subtle differences, but could have an outsized role downstream and storm impacts on our area. Overall, we are becoming more confident of a significant, but not blockbuster winter storm. Widespread accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are forecast, with lesser amounts towards the MA/RI south coast and the Cape and Islands, where it is expected to mix with and change over to rain after the initial thump of snow.

It's not a minimum of 12"+ wide spread, at least not yet. 8-16" seems to be reasonable at this point. Read the BOX from the National Weather Service I posted earlier.

I think the bottom line of the conversation is that elevation helped in that storm.

Location: Ashford, CT Elevation: 702ft

Generally it's a moderate to heavy snowstorm for many places but major or blockbuster, no. Can't change the definition, based on the impact.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights * A significant winter storm capable of producing heavy snowfall late Wed into Thu afternoon across our region is expected. * The potential exists for at least part of our area to receive over a foot of snow. However, the overall pattern is progressive, which means it is hard-pressed to see snowfall accumulations much over 12 inches. * If the low pressure tracks a little further north, areas towards the south coast and the Cape/Islands will have mixing issues, which will cut down on the snow totals. * The biggest concern with the system will be heavy snowfall rates and given the antecedent cold air mass, snow will accumulate immediately on all surfaces upon onset. A significant winter storm capable of heavy snowfall across much of the region is becoming more likely, with abundant southern stream moisture and antecedent cold air in play for potential significant, plowable snowfall. Mesowest obs show widespread dew points in the single digits with a few spots even below zero, indicative of a fresh injection of cold, dry air mass. The exceptions are the Cape and Islands and areas towards the MA/RI immediate South Coast, where it will mix with and change over to rain. Some uncertainty still remains, however, on the northern edge of heavy snowfall. The 12z guidance has shown a northward trend with the heavy precipitation, which is why we have expanded Winter Storm headlines to include our western and northern zones. Looking at the 12z suite of guidance including the HREF, the system is forecast to remain fairly progressive as the H5 low crosses from NJ into SNE. There are some hints that the H5 low could weaken a little slower between 12z and 18z, but very little to suggest bumping up the current forecast too much. Also, the track of the H5 low is a little further north and its track along the MA/RI south coast would suggest that areas towards and along the MA/RI south coast, including the Cape & Islands will mix likely with and change to rain after an initial thump, which will cut down on snow totals. This also means that areas further N&W will also come into play for heavier snow accumulations, which is why we expanded the Winter Storm Watches to our entire CWA with the morning update. A potential red flag against some of the eye-popping totals shown by deterministic guidance is the relative lack of deepening of the secondary low. Ensemble members keep the low in the high 990s or low 1000s, which indicates a lack of deepening or cyclogenesis required for the system to have more staying power and reduce the potential for totals much higher than a foot at this time. Also, this reduces the chance for blizzard conditions though it will still be quite windy with the pressure gradient thanks to the 1035 mb high to our north. Overall, given the progressive pattern and the deamplifying H5 shortwave, we are inclined to go with a widespread 8-12 inches for our CWA with lesser amounts towards the S Coast. Could some locations get more than a foot? Absolutely, but it is hard pressed to see amounts over 15 inches at this time. The H5 upper low that will play a critical role in the Nor`easter has shown up the water vapor satellite imagery over the Texas Panhandle. A cursory glance seems to suggest that the GFS and NAM have initialized rather well. A closer look suggests that the NAM may have initialized the ridge over the Northern Rockies a little too much. These are very fine margins and subtle differences, but could have an outsized role downstream and storm impacts on our area. Overall, we are becoming more confident of a significant, but not blockbuster winter storm. Widespread accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are forecast, with lesser amounts towards the MA/RI south coast and the Cape and Islands, where it is expected to mix with and change over to rain after the initial thump of snow.

The "Man" loves his work