Greg

James may end up tainting a little bit more than previously thought with these very last minute tics and current observations.

Happy anniversary! Blizzard of 1978! North Station, Bunker Hill Community College, and Copley Square.

No

More likely north of the pike / west of 495.

While we are confident in a plowable snow across most of southern New England, the uncertainty exists on whether or not higher amounts advertised by certain models will be realized. Also, the northwest extent of the heavier amounts is also uncertain. There is a battle amongst a lot of the global vs. high resolution model guidance. The tendency is for a lot of the high resolution data to be heavier with the snow amounts and also further northwest compared to the global models. It is quite evident even comparing the 3 KM to 12 KM NAM model. Given the differences we somewhat blended the guidance together. While we think some of the high resolution guidance may be too heavy with the QPF & as well as being too far northwest; there are a few things we need to consider. There are some indications of a band of pretty intense 700 mb frontogenesis and good snow growth on the northwest side of the storm. We also should mention there are decent mid level lapse rates and a -EPV signature. This may result in 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates for a time especially late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. In addition, a period of good SLR/s would occur in this band especially if it is able to reach northwest of I-95, where surface temperatures will be colder.

Waiting for the 1PM Euro for verification this close in. Still thinking Nantucket and Central Cape gets some taint. Temps on the Cape will be in the low to mid 30's. The far South Shore like Taunton, Rochester, Plymouth, Middleborough, and Wareham looks around 8"-10" as of now.

True. I'm telling ya, if that GFS ever was 2-3 tics further west, we all would be singing a different tune.

Don't look at the ICON please.

I know by the next run it will probably tic back southeast some but man, what snowy run.

With that track verbatim, at least that.

Have to admit, that's a pretty conservative printout.

Looks more like an Eastern CT, RI to Southeastern MA dry slot verbatim on that RPM model.

+ 20.0" NEW 2/2/21 46.7" YTD

Make sure my friend you check the roof of your house now and again like I do. This stuff can start to weigh down and cause problems. Otherwise good storm around these parts. East Acton 21.8 700 AM 2/02 Ham Radio Hudson 20.9 659 AM 2/02 Ham Radio Littleton 20.4 805 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter LOWELL 20.1 836 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter Wilmington 20.0 221 AM 2/02 General Public Dracut 19.6 737 AM 2/02 Ham Radio Tewksbury 19.5 635 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter Townsend 18.2 931 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter Burlington 18.2 1131 PM 2/01 Trained Spotter Winchester 18.2 744 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter

I know because that 20" amount was taken close to 2:30 AM this morning. With Bedford at about 18.0", Acton at 21.8", Methuen at 18.3" and Lowell at 20.1", and the way that Coastal Front behaved, those amounts seem pretty spot on. East Acton 21.8 700 AM 2/02 Ham Radio Hudson 20.9 659 AM 2/02 Ham Radio Littleton 20.4 805 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter LOWELL 20.1 836 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter Wilmington 20.0 221 AM 2/02 General Public Dracut 19.6 737 AM 2/02 Ham Radio Tewksbury 19.5 635 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter Townsend 18.2 931 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter burlington 18.2 1131 PM 2/01 Trained Spotter WInchester 18.2 744 AM 2/02 Trained Spotter

That map looks a little undercooked.

The ground was pretty cold leading up to this so I would think the 900 were just a degree or two too warm. that may be the difference right there. As of now, I have very close to 20" right now but a little gun shy to report it to the National Weather Service. Concerned it may look too high or a little aggressive with the surrounding areas. But, I'll wait a little bit.

So close, so close right now. A few more hours of this into the very early morning hours and I think we can just about do it.

Even I actually thought you would do better than that.

Just watched Harvey Leonard on channel 5. Indicates up to 20" in the Worcester County and Merrimack Valley just west and northwest of Boston.

I just measured about 16.0" It's incredible out here.

Boston, Especially Logan International, is right on the water and Taunton is actually a decent way inland from the waters edge. In tight situations like this, Placement from the immediate waters edge is everything even at almost exact temperatures.

Still Snowing at a moderate to heavy clip, still strong wind gusts once and a while.

I second that thought. It did do fairly well with other short range regional models.