Greg

Oh No!

Would really like to see this trend continue.

0.5" as of 8:00 AM this morning here in southwest Wilmington. Not a bad surprise. Thought we would get only a trace the way things were looking on radar last night. Nice to wake up to.

The high pressure to the north was weaker this time.

Personally, I'll give this to about the 00z models tonight.

Pretty constant here with the light flurry activity. At least the atmosphere is saturated and primed but no steady intensity to be found.

Seen a couple of flurries in the flood lights but nothing solid here.

Snowing here at my house in Wilmington, MA, not sticking yet.

Happy Thanksgiving! Hoping this thing in future runs can curl under us and blossom a little bit.

Like I said guys, you want that to pop off the southeast NJ coast, be flatter/ less amped, and then we'll be seeing something more interesting taking shape.

You want the GFS to be slightly flatter than amped like this. Then we'll talk turkey.

Just saw that to. First trace.

I wish I could meet you guys in person. Unfortunately, I have other arrangements for that very day.

Pray that One-Eyed Pig does not stake a claim in late Fall. Although, I personally don't think that will materialize like that.

I always use to say it depends on the specific data sets and range your looking at for averages.

3.3" Total. Looks nice! 25F

3.1" Coming down Nicely. 27F

1.1" down Moderate 26F

I guess the forecast is depending on a combination of good ratios to make up for the 0.2" - 0.4" of LE predicted.

If one excludes the GEM/RGEM, storm-total liquid-equivalent precipitation remains rather remarkably consistent across the deterministic and global ensemble guidance at around 0.3-0.4". Other than across Cape Cod and the South Coast where rain may mix in, this would ordinarily only support an Advisory-type snowfall around 3-5" at SLRs of 10 to 13:1. However, both 00z NAM and GFS indicate a zone of 850 mb speed convergence and associated W-E band of 850 mb frontogenetic forcing with some -EPV lifting N/NE from central CT/central RI this afternoon. This should support the development of localized bands of moderate to potentially heavy-intensity snows for a few-hr period near and north of the Mass Pike, coinciding with the PM commute. These bands are supported by 00z HREF 1-hrly snowfall progs, which suggest inch per hour snow rates could be achievable in the winter storm warning area, with low visbys to boot. In addition, WPC runs experimental Snowband Probability graphics which depict the potential for mesoscale snowbands, and a number of members indicate the potential for such bands during the 19-23z timeframe. These are often challenging to pinpoint and it`s not out of the question areas in northern CT and northwest RI could get in on these bands as well; Omega in the snow growth region is also a lot less, which should keep us from seeing the intense snow rates we saw from e.g. Sunday. But, snow amounts were increased around 1-2" inches in the winter storm warning area to around 5-7" (isolated/local higher in persistent steady-state bands), around 3-6" across northern CT, Providence County in RI and up towards Norfolk and the Greater Boston area. Amounts taper further south and east to the 2-4" range for southeast MA into central RI, and generally 1-3" near the South Coast/Cape where rain may mix in at times.

A few tray flakes just started here. 25F

I have to admit, that radar looks a little paltry if some of the amounts forecast are to come.

MYV and ACK are always included when talking about the Cape, always where. By the way, I never gave any indications depending on which forecasters you watched at the time, how correct or incorrect they where in their forecast. Personally, I say the Mets where off and the Cape and joined in the fun of getting blasted. This was more like a 24 Hour storm for many. But down by the Cape it appeared that ocean effect snow formed off the Bay where for about 12 more hours snow fell. This may be why there is a difference in the totals. It appears some Coops counted the 24 hour storm as one separate piece and the lingering ocean effect as another separate piece while other spotters just lumped together the two as one long 36 hour duration storm. That may be where the disconnect/misunderstanding may be.

I remember the report quite vividly, Maybe it was just a quick mix at the very onset or something along those lines. Not taking any snow away from them down there. Just that some recollection's are different than others. It's a little like how Will can remember snowstorms to a "tee" with many others including my self, having to look up.