Greg

Jet Streak and spacing influence of the storm to the north and strength of the SLP.

Then if that is true the temperature would have to be a ratio that would be poor to dendrite formation. The temp here in Wilmington would be 29F or something like that. Doesn't make too much sense to me.

That's actually off a little bit based upon the LE map we just saw if you scroll above. Go out to about 70 hours then do the 24-Hour total for snow, the map will match up better. Can't have 4.4" of snow in Lowell/Lawrence with a 10-1 ratio and 0.5" LE unless the temperature is above 32F based on that output.

Titanic.

It's ok! The more, the merrier.

As much as I'd love to see these models come to wishing, I always remain guarded when the amped 18Z come in like this. We all know or should know for that matter that the 00Z suite will end up keeping things reasonably in check.

It's possible he may do that at the 11:00 PM news cycle if the trends continue.

C

I'll take the NAM 3KM for 400 please.

FROM WEATHER SERVICE NORTON, MA *Thursday night through Friday... Coastal low-pressure system will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night and make it`s way toward southern New England during the early hours of Friday. This system will likely produce widespread snowfall, but is not forecast to be a major storm. Right now there are a couple of ingredients lacking with this system that will limit both impacts and snow accumulations. First, there isn`t expected to be strong enough forcing to generate intense snowfall rates. Second, there is no downstream blocking that will slow the system allowing it to produce snowfall for a longer period of time. At this point an advisory level event is the most likely scenario. The jury is still out on the track of this system, but latest ensemble guidance has the storm tracking just south and east of the 70/40 benchmark. This would mean a higher snowfall potential for the southeastern portions of southern New England and a lower potential for the northwestern portions. The consensus among the global model ensembles is for a swath of 4-6 inches of snow across the east/southeastern areas including Boston and Providence. West of I- 495 would be more likely to see amounts in the 2-4 inch range. While 4-6 inches doesn`t fall into the category of a major winter storm it certainly should not be ignored. Latest trends suggest the heaviest snowfall would be in the early to mid morning hours Friday, thus the modest snow accumulations could impact the morning commute. Latest trends support the snowfall ending in the early to mid afternoon. Finer details will be ironed out in the next 12-24 hours as the exact track of the system becomes more clear.

Do you just see things black and white like that? We also said there was "Central" part to it. Not just west or east. There's an in-between area you know.

I would generally tell you that around and east of the 495 belt is mostly considered Eastern Mass, anything a little west of that to the Worcester area is considered Central Mass. CT River Valley west is considered Western Mass.

A lousy LA Nina pattern can do this sort of thing to snow lovers.

I'm on Hr 48 of the 0Z NAM right now.

Don't go with only one model but we'll see if the 0Z models tonight start to trend like it. Here's crossing my fingers.

Yup.

Out to 75 hours on the NAM here.

Not looking too bad.

Not a bad first guess. Personally, I would expand that 6-12" zone towards the far South Shore and give the Cape and Islands the Mix zone ending with 4-8". Just my mere opinion.

Rain to Maine sort of deal.

Curious to see what the afternoon Euro depicts here. Just merely curious how it behaves to this 12z model suite.

"A BM NE to east of the tip of NS does not" Ironically, this track that you don't like is what actually many of the good ones for both CNE and especially SNE (With exceptions on the far South Shore/Cape and islands) and majority on this weather board.