Greg

Probably not the QPF in 1992 nor 1997. But those were different storms.

I do NOT have a "Jack POT" fetish or an IMBY mentality. I have seen these models not just how they performed this year, but others, and this trend has continued. Believe what you must but I have lived and seen this many times before.

Even the Euro and GFS have their collective biases that need slight correcting my friend. This is fairly well known. The GFS is still a little too far southeast with its tracks and tends to overdo the extent of its precip shield. the Euro, has a tendency to have a slightly over amped bias, not quite like the NAM of course, and tends to very slightly overdo the "LE" Liquid Equivalency. So, all these things need to be kept in a reasonable perspective.

Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.

We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind based on the output I see.

Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.

True, but I believe this storm won't be an 18–24-hour event either. IMHO, I think it will be between a 15–18-hour storm. But we'll see.

Winter Storm "Grayson" January 3-4, 2018, had a Pressure around 953/954. This potential storm has some similarities to that not to mention a couple of other things.

I violently agree.

I think you do better than that of course but I am thinking at this moment slightly heavier totals eastward.

I was actually thinking a similar situation.

1.0" here. Nice to see it look like winter again.

44.7F Partly sunny.

27F still just cloudy here. Don't expect much here at all. Maybe a couple of inches, tops.

Wilmington / Cloudy 20.0F

They are. They're slightly warmer aloft.

Same here.

Makes me wonder a little if we should take the "Positive Depth Change map" and average the "forecast map" together and the truth of what really falls may lie somewhere between there. Just a mere tongue and cheek thought.

There is one more type of map we don't really talk about or go over much on these forums but the 12KM and 3KM have a "positive Snow Depth Change" feature. Not sure how accurate it is or what its' algorithms take into consideration but, it shows a lower amount of snow left over than the snowfall forecast. Not sure either how much it has verified in the past. Just brought it up because many want to know how much snow will be left after the rain or any sleet at all. So, check it out if you want, even post them if so. Just another tool to merely look at.

Not sure either. It could go from a heavy snow to rain without much sleet getting in at all. Interesting situation. The duration of the true snowfall rates of the front end and rain will be paramount to how it all plays out.

I know.. Read what I wrote.

The 3KM clown map seems to be the realistic outcome on this storm. It takes the sleet into consideration here.