Geoboy645

What, a rain event overperfoming? In the year 2024? That's so crazy!

An impressive stat about yesterday. The average of the day ended up at 73.5 degrees at Madison. It beat the latest daily average above 73 degrees by 8 days. The average date of last day this warm is September 11th, so yesterday broke that average by 48 days(!). To put it in perspective, in spring the earliest date this warm was April 16th, and the average first day this warm isn't until May 26th. The significance of a daily average of 73 at Madison is that it's warmer than the 30-year daily average for the average temperature of the warmest stretch of summer from July 2nd to 30th. So even in the peak of summer, a daily average of 73.5 would be considered an above-normal day. And we had a day with that on October 29th. That's pretty crazy.

Madison reached 81 today, tied with 10/29/1937 for the latest 80 degree day on record.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1845213325338214901 Well if this is any accurate, pretty bad. If that holds true, things could get rough for drought across the region come spring.

Drought Monitor updated, and it is starting to look really rough for the areas that have missed out on the last couple of events. The Northwoods especially is looking rough, that's a large area of D2 added this week with no real precip chances in sight. Definitely an increased chance of wildfires up there as we continue on into October and November.

Despite it not really feeling like it, it is in fact October. Nothing really too exciting in the near-future, just continued 60s/70s and sunny for the region. As long as we can keep these conditions for the comet from the 9th-20th, we'll be alright. Biggest concern for the first half of the month otherwise is the continuing drought conditions in the areas that missed out on the rain on 9/22 and/or from Post-Helene, especially in the Northwoods where it has been pretty dry for a while now. Otherwise, not a whole lot going on.

Looks like the final total will be 3.97" for today at Madison. Breaks the daily and monthly record set on this date in 2009, and is a top 5(!!!) daily rainfall in Madison. This feels like the rain equivalent of 3/25/23 where nothing was really expected to happen and we end up with a top 10 daily precip-type record.

Madison is up to 3.20" for a daily total so far, with a few more hours of rain to come. This makes this year one of only four years to record multiple 3"+ days in year with 1869, 1878, and 2007 being the other ones. This also puts us over 40" of rain for the year, which makes this year a top 15 wettest on record. Notably before 1990, we only recorded 40" of rain in a year in the 1880-85 period and 1959. And now this is the 8th time in the last 34 years that we have recorded 40"+. We have recorded almost as much rain since Midnight as we had recorded in the over two months prior. Crazy.

Welp, I guess the drought is over up here. Widespread 1-3" over most of Southern Wisconsin, with pockets of 4"+. Including an area of up to 6" (!) between Rio, Dekorra, Wyocena, and Poynette. It can't ever just be a little rain anymore, it either has to be no rain at all or a major rain event.

Today feels like June or July 21st, not September 21st with the afternoon popup-style, and occasionally severe storms. Very strange feeling to say the least.

To put in perspective how much of a flip this has been for precipitation. In the two months from 5/16-7/16, Madison recorded 20.87 inches of rain (11.22 in to 32.09 in). In the two months from 7/16 to today, we have recorded 3.82 inches (32.09 in to 35.91 inches).

After experiencing the 5th wettest summer on record, we are now in abnormally dry conditions. Talk about a change.

What? We start going well above average again as soon as we leave summer? Color me shocked!

Just like that it's September again. The most pleasant month of the year for the region, and at least the first week or so looks to be that way this year. Can't complain about 70's and sunny at all this time of year, as the clock starts to slowly tick down to the beginning of cold season in a month and a half. Notably, the colors and everything getting that September crispness seem to be just a bit ahead compared to normal rn with the mostly cool and dry August. Definitely going to try and enjoy this month.

Yeah the next week to 10 days look like a pretty typical early September forecast. No complaints here at all. It'll be interesting seeing how the first part of fall evolves here, as in some ways it already feels like we made the switch from summer to fall conditions even before the heat of the last couple of days. Notably, even with the drier August we are still running at #5 YTD for precip, so it'll be interesting seeing if that continues or not.

It definitely was a shock walking out of work last night into the 86/75 degree air at 8pm with it practically dark out. That's the weird thing about heat like this at this time of year. This is pretty close to the same level of sunlight that we have in early April when we get stuff like 4/2 earlier this year and 4/13/18.

Normally a heatwave like this would feel more like a nuisance than anything at this point in the summer, but because we have been so cool for the last like 6 weeks that this is going to be a bit of a shock for a couple days. Cannot complain about the last 6 weeks though, it's been a really pleasant, if boring, stretch of weather.

Yeah no real complaints here from a temperature perspective, it's been great! The excessive rain got to be very annoying, but even then that stopped about a month ago. The last month has been one of the better month-long summer stretches in a while it feels like. And the fact is we could go another 2-3 weeks of this at least considering this is pretty much the average kind of weather for September.

So a blob popped up here after the main MCS moved through and just like that it's dumped another 2-3 inches on top of the prior rainfall and triggered yet another couple of FFWs. Well the dry weather was nice while it lasted.

As of rn this is looking pretty similar geographically to Ike's remnants in 2008. With potential a similar intensity in regards to rainfall in some areas. Granted, the wind threat should not be there basically at all unlike Ike. But still, the potential is there for probably the most significant rainfall from tropical remnants in the Midwest since Cristobal, if not Ike.

At least that part of the region has been pretty dry this summer so far, so it should be alright for flooding as long as things don't get too heavy. We can't take any of it up here at this point so it needs to stay down there. Although the Mississippi being in flood stage because of the flooding in the upper basin and the Missouri basin could throw a wrench into that a little bit.

I am so tired of the rain. Since the flooding on the 22nd and 23rd, we have had a few more rain events, including tonight. While none have caused the amount of flooding as 6/22, everywhere has high water rn. We desperately need a break and it just keeps coming. It doesn't help it's like an inch to two inches of rain everytime. And with today's rain, a bunch of the local fireworks shows got postponed to Saturday. And the forecast continues to look wet. And depending on what happens with Beryl, we could be in for a remnants event sometime later next week. This is what 1993 must have been like, which btw we are currently ahead of rn with precip. Which is incredible, with the caveat that 1993s big flood events weren't until July on WI for the most part. The only reason this isnt fully 1993 is the leftover effects of the drought last year. Which by the way, we have surpassed not only the entirety of last summers rainfall in the last month, some areas by Baraboo and Portage have almost certainly tied or exceeded the annual amount for last year just in the last 60 days. Those areas got around 20 last year and they have had that in the last 60. And the thing is, we theoretically could keep doing this for the rest of the summer. It just never ends.

Crazy on a day that was supposed to be on the lighter side we still managed to get that much rain

I am not enthused by this at all. With how wet our soils are, and how most of our vulnerable trees, being the EAB ash trees, are either still in or have been in water. We are highly vulnerable to significant wind. And with it coming through at like 1am, that could cause even more issues. Even 60mph winds could cause issues tonight, let alone anything stronger than that.

FFW in effect for a dam failure S of Mankato. The Rapidan Dam on the Blue Earth River has failed after erosion of the earth on its W side. Fortunately it's not that big of a reservoir behind it, but still. Just an incredible amount of water flowing into the Minnesota River rn. In other news around here, the rivers have appeared to have crested, for now. However, with this potential MCS tonight we could have another 1-2 inches, which would be a major blow rn. The rivers are going to take a while to come down as is, and we can't take anymore than maybe a half inch at this point. Even fields on top of hills have water in spots, that's how wet it is. And we still have whatever is going to happen this weekend.