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Negnao

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Everything posted by Negnao

  1. Negnao
    It’s the only model that matters. Toss everything else.
  2. Negnao
    That’s 6z not 12z
  3. Negnao
    Those details don’t matter. Just enjoy it.
  4. Negnao
    Hrrr long range is a a solid 5-6 inches for dc metro before any mixing. One part of the storm we need to produce is the thump so that’s reassuring even though it’s the hrrr at range.
  5. Negnao
    Where do we sign? Great run for dc.
  6. Negnao
    Rgem is better for the northeast and NE md (for our forum) and about the same or so for dc and south. Maybe a little worse dc and south.
  7. Negnao
    That’s why I liked the euro runs with a weaker coastal that went E rather than NE up the coast from our latitude. Wasn’t a blockbuster but it was clean.
  8. Negnao
    I guess it all depends on where you live but for dc proper the 6z Euro run and more suppressive look was cleaner.
  9. Negnao
    Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right.
  10. Negnao
    This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro.
  11. Negnao
  12. Negnao
    Good run but the primary holds on a little longer than 18z. Nice thump then we mix.
  13. Negnao
    Nice thump but these are some ugly 850s
  14. Negnao
    I meant ppl in this forum. We use state lines as arbitrary lines but our climate is closer to Philadelphia than Richmond for much of the forum but we don’t bark when Richmond ppl chime in.
  15. Negnao
    Washington Dulles annual snowfall is 22 inches which is the same or more of than Philadelphia International airport. We have ppl in Richmond and they get much less snow.
  16. Negnao
    It’s hard to ignore seasonal trends and yesterdays storm is certainly a prime example. And kudos to you for sticking to your guns. After 0z I was convinced this was a typical miller b screw job and we were going to have to watch nyc and Boston get clobbered. That was always my concern but they can’t like this run. Let’s hope it stays right where it is at 18z and I think all of us will be happy.
  17. Negnao
    Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right?
  18. Negnao
  19. Negnao
    Big improvement on the 6z eps. Control as well. Just pretend you never saw 0z.
  20. Negnao
    Agree with this but there is still variability among the individual members so the mean should be taken with that in mind.
  21. Negnao
    Not out yet
  22. Negnao
    It’s all relative to expectations. For those who saw the euro and banked it, this is a disappointment. Also, it’s salt in many wounds here as this perfectly portrays how a miller b can leave us on the outside looking in. This snow map presupposes we also accumulate from the back end band. A lot has to go right for this to verify. I think we would all happily take it though given where we’ve been the last few years. Some in here just want that euro run.
  23. Negnao
    Tarot cards come to mind.
  24. Negnao
    I’m watching how much latitude the storm gets before reaching the coast. Too far north and the transfer misses us and we’re in the ripoff zone. Of course too far south and you get those suppression scenarios we saw in the eps members.
  25. Negnao
    Icon behaving like a miller b in a Nina. Best snow to the NE.
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