etudiant
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Everything posted by etudiant
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Honestly doubt that the quantum world uncertainties will impact our mundane weather and climate issues. Right now, afaik, we cannot even model the impact of earth's spin along with the daytime and nighttime on the atmosphere all that well and nor has any model generated the Roman or the Medieval climatic optimum, so we are still groping with the basics. Lots of room for humility in climate science, imho.
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The site is surrounded by a 10' cyclone fence with razor wire on top, so it takes determination to vandalize these instruments. Actually, the Park is pretty well cared for at the moment, vandalism is down to its lowest levels in decades. However, the tree cover is also at its fullest in decades and surely skews the readings. I'd not thought of the trades driven by cooling degree days, but there is a very active market in that supporting the natural gas futures. Possibly there might be a legal liability here.
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Thought that tree rings measure warm season moisture, rather than temperature. Separately, I have to question this graph, if only because the Briffa tree ring data showed a decline since the mid 1900s, which is not reflected here.
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So we need lots of electric generating capacity to power all those cheap electric cars. Is that why the price of coal has gone way up recently?
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Japan, whose population is falling, has been the precursor country for all of the industrialized world, in Europe, the Americas and Asia. Their populations too are aging, with way below replacement birth rates. China and increasingly India are on the same trajectory Overpopulation is getting to be a regional issue, mostly in Muslim communities.
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Sad to say, no confidence at all in any of these 'forecasts'. Here in sunny Manhattan, the forecast changed in minutes from weekly nighttime lows in the high 40s to the mid 30s . Clearly there remains great uncertainty. Imho, forecasts will not improve until forecasters are compelled to post their prior forecasts as well. Right now, the past is completely opaque, no weather channel afaik allows one to go back a day to see what actually happened. This unwillingness to honestly face up to what worked and what did not is probably a result of TV/net channel pressures, the effect remains the same. Those unable to learn from the past simply make the same mistakes again.
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Not sure that name plate power rating gives a full story. Nuclear is pretty much what it says on the tin, apart from re-fueling breaks. Solar at peak should be derated by about a factor of 4 to 6 to account for the night time outage and the less than full sun seasonal and daytime intervals. Wind is similarly intermittent, except that too strong also halts the turbines, so at least similar derating as solar. In theory, those issues can be solved by very dispersed siting and massive interconnects, but those discussions are nowhere near the needed depth, much less close to getting political support.
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Please be a little patient. No winter cancellations before Nov 21rst. After that, it's open season.
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Afaik, ketchup is considered a vegetable serving, so an essential element in a balanced diet. Has there been a recent change in the guidance?
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Central Park is weird currently, buried under a canopy of shrubs and trees. I don't see how anyone can take the measurements from there seriously. You are probably better served using the Upper West Side site from the AMNH, there is actually a real person there who takes the data and the place has been there for more than a century, so the environment is pretty stable, in contrast to Central Park.
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The videos do not show it, but these centipedes have a very impressive set of fangs with poison glands under their second segment. As long as they don't get excited, say by dropping on you from an overhanging shrub, you should be OK. Otherwise, the good news is that the bites are not fatal to humans, albeit very painful.
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Well, AOC was pretty clear that she needed to hold the infrastructure bill to shield the larger reconciliation. Think that is why she voted against it, because with it passed, she has no leverage. The bookies agree with her, they are not stupid either.
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Feral Monk Parakeets are well established residents in the NY area. They build large communal nests, often around transformers which then act as central heating during the winter. Con Ed is consequently not fond of them.
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Hey Liberty, that is seriously not good. These inexpensive heaters are a huge risk for fires. My recommendation is switch to one of the Intertherm heaters, they are decent quality and, most important, have no red hot elements. (Looking for them on Amazon, it seems they are replaced (renamed) as Farenheit. Not sure they are the same.) The concept is that the heating element is sealed in a non flammable silicon oil, which heats the room by convection. It looks like a baseboard heater, so very unobtrusive. I use a couple and have had them for maybe 20 years, so they last pretty well.
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Note that this was before the Spotted Lantern Fly arrived on these shores....;
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The virtues of the classics, one remembers what septuagenarian actually means.... That said, it is a condition to be avoided, if possible, don't ever fall while in that state, you will regret it seriously.
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So I can count on you to sponsor the event? Will Rutgers's Spotted Lantern Fly eating contest. A NY/New England ecological action. I'll happily front the initial $100 prize. Double it if 200 are eaten.
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No worse than shrimp, plus they only feed on pure juices, unlike shrimp that will eat anything. Maybe baked, with a nice Chianti??
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Thank you, Don, for these reminders that fall is wonderful, beautiful flowers and wonderful insects, birds and mammals.
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That is exactly what the US govt researchers fear, that once the preferred prey species has become too scarce, the Lanternflies become less choosy. There is no impediment to them sucking the lifeblood from other trees, just habit, which hunger will modify.
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Spiders are usually pretty protective of their eggs, you may have seen them lugging their egg sack around, so think that your mouth is safe. That said, exotic pests get free global transportation courtesy of world trade. The early examples of Dutch elm disease and Chestnut blight were not sufficient to cause us to reconsider the wisdom of a one world approach. Instead, the process is accelerating, think Spotted Lantern Fly, Emerald Ash Borer and Asian Long Horned Beetle just in the past few years.
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Trouble is that the spiders are actually pretty small and really hard to hit. An AK-47 is entirely the wrong tool, a shotgun with a minimal charge and using dust shot would be better, but the cleanup would be wicked. I say just learn to live with them, they will suppress the other creepy crawlies that usually are the norm south of the Mason Dixon line.
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That's just squeaking by imho, but I guess it passes muster.... On the East side, near 72nd St, I don't think it came close to 0.25".
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Exaggerated storm reports
etudiant replied to Classbravo's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future. That said, I do agree that the forecasters as well as the reporters understandably focus on the extreme events, but those rarely coincide with the location of the reporters on the ground. Maybe drones could improve the coverage and thus reduce the discrepancy, but I'm not optimistic. For instance, hurricane reporting is totally distorted by the absurd focus on peak winds, which we cannot even agree to define in a consistent way between the Atlantic and the Asia/Pacific storms. A more useful report would emphasize the size of the storm, the amount of precipitation and the extent of the surge expected. Thankfully those data are provided by the NHC, but they do not get the media focus they deserve.
