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etudiant

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Everything posted by etudiant

  1. etudiant
    Cherry trees are blossoming in Central Park around the Great Lawn, probably fooled by the near spring weather Fear that is not good for them. .
  2. etudiant
    WU now projects 0.77 ' for their day, with another 0.32 " forecast for tomorrow. Thus far no sign of the 'heavy rain' that was anticipated.
  3. etudiant
    The system appears to be bypassing NYC. Rain forecasts have fallen from 2.12" four hours ago to 1.05 " as of now. and may decline further,.Radar suggests much higher rain totals west of the city.
  4. etudiant
    Perhaps balancing record cold in China and Russia?? https://www.reuters.com/world/china/freezing-temperatures-snow-ice-blanket-china-shutting-highways-2023-12-15/ https://phys.org/news/2023-12-china-cold-snap-persists.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/06/siberia-russia-extreme-cold-asia/
  5. etudiant
    In fairness, existing 10 day forecasts show so little skill that AI voodoo may well be superior, even if the methodology is murky.
  6. etudiant
    Surprising unanimity in the models that we are at an inflection point. Are they really that good?
  7. etudiant
    Thank you, a somewhat disquieting insight. It suggests we should get set for 'interesting' weather. The Chinese had a saying about 'interesting times', iirc.
  8. etudiant
    Makes sense, but what limits this? Is there an offsetting mechanism or could we be headed towards a much higher atmospheric moisture level?
  9. etudiant
    That's cruel.
  10. etudiant
    For a major hurricane striking the continental US, Idalia was as gracious as could possibly be. It seems pure hype to retire the name.
  11. etudiant
    I'd be surprised if it was even noticed by the passengers.The aircraft flies at 400 kts and at 40,000 ft, so well above the low level turbulence and will probably gain bonus speed thanks to the hurricane winds,
  12. etudiant
    Speculating that they did not want to extend their flight. JFK to AKL is 18 hours non stop, it is one of the longest routes in the world.
  13. etudiant
    So why was it not prominently chosen in the various hurricane forecasts? Certainly both the Nino conditions as well as the unusually warm Atlantic were discussed at great length.
  14. etudiant
    Forecast reliability declines very rapidly going out beyond a couple of days. No one has a high skill forecast for even a working week, afaik. That is what makes the effort so worthwhile, it's a really hard problem.
  15. etudiant
    Only comment that I've seen is that there had been no maintenance of these dams since Qaddafi was overthrown in 2011, due to the ongoing civil war. Nothing about their construction or function though. Iirc, Qaddafi's signature project was the 'great man made river', to divert water from the Atlas mountains to the population centers, around Tripoli and elsewhere, so he must have been actively building reservoirs. I've no idea whether these dams were part of that effort.
  16. etudiant
    Patience....
  17. etudiant
    Is there a good explanation for this critical course change or is it projected based on historical precedent?
  18. etudiant
    Only some moderate gusts here in Manhattan, not even a sprinkle thus far. Seems the action was further north, we just swelter some more.
  19. etudiant
    NYC had the Lantern Fly food tree planted everywhere. The 'Tree of Heaven' is a good choice for urban trees, resists pollution and abuse better than most native species. So the Lantern Fly arrived to a well set table, only ray of light is that our birds are getting a taste for them.
  20. etudiant
    Thank you for posting this. It puts down a marker with solid detail in the forecast. I only wish your example was generally emulated.
  21. etudiant
    Nothing thus far here in Manhattan's UES, even though the forecast amount gradually rose during the day from.25" to .65", before being slashed to 0.05" now. Evidently these very localized intense storms remain very difficult to predict.
  22. etudiant
    Given that SSTs in the Atlantic are unusually high, is it possible that the hurricane season will be extended, so that October becomes the 2023 September?
  23. etudiant
    Not an installer, but could you rent a cherry picker to mount your gear at a reasonable cost? Separately, the location looks pretty exposed, great for getting clean measurements, but also potentially a lightning rod. I'd strongly second uofmiami's recommendation to have it blessed by an electrician, just for peace of mind.
  24. etudiant
    Only if one of the rain bands comes through. Thus far, rainfall rates here have been very subdued, well under the 1"/hr rate.
  25. etudiant
    Rain here on the Manhattan UES has stopped for the moment. Doubt we got even a tenth of that here.
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