etudiant

Honestly, if you have kids and expect a potential 10' storm surge, you should get out. Life is too precious to be stubborn.

Exactly! People know this and consequently prefer to risk their lives by riding out the storm, just to avoid losing all their possessions to criminals and vandals.

Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have. Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step. Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return.

There was a very good illustration map of the Sarasota area in a post yesterday, which allowed one to see the streets progressively inundated as the surge went from nothing to 10 feet. I know zip about Florida, so no idea whether your friend's location is covered. In any case, maps and good models exist. Good luck!!

Surely the most likely is under 10". We have all the makings of a non event winter, what would produce a near normal result?

Imho, there is little to be learned from the further evolution of Ernesto. Rather we need to understand how come high Atlantic SSTs are not translating into more and better hurricanes. Right now, the various forecasts appear to show little skill at best. Does anyone have a possibly better approach? Asking, pretty please!

Has Rhode Island been considered or even the CT coast past New Haven? These areas are a little less accessible from the big cities, but still quite wonderful.

Pretty sure Peregrine strikes kill the victim, but beyond that, they usually start with the head, which kills quickly. However, other raptors are less considerate, so it is not unknown.

Not sure that follows. I see no reason why people back then would hike their numbers. Maybe the current models have weaknesses instead.

Was Beryl considered to be 'fast moving'? Afaik, the storm was only going about 10 mph when it hit the coast.

It should be called the Irish shot. in honor of its creator.

Iirc, we had a similar situation a little over a year ago, possibly April, which had a cool spell that raised the odds on a below normal month. That did not happen because the last part of the month was warm enough to keep the AN trend intact.

Excellently illuminating comment. Thank you!

Seems to me that JB uses analogs extensively, sometimes that works super, Sandy being the prime example, sometimes (perhaps more often than not) it does not. So he is one of the sources that amateurs like me try to keep up with, recognizing his biases. I'd guess that for his paying members, just one outlier call that eventuates will pay for a century's worth of subscriptions. So Perhaps consider him as the counterpoint opinion, often astray, but still useful.

Guess nobody told people in India that their fertility was under threat. That said, the catastrophic slump in birth rates is pervasive across the industrialized world, with South Korea and Taiwan in the van, but Europe, North America, Japan and China all well below sustainable fertility levels. Maybe the fault is of the media,which push unreasonable life style expectations, or maybe its aliens. In any case, it is not a fossil fuel problem, the Ultra Orthodox and the Amish in the US both seem to have maintained historic fertility rates while surrounded by the near childless..

My limited experience would suggest choosing Buffalo or Rochester over Syracuse. I always found the worst weather when driving from Toronto to New York was centered around Syracuse. There was a cartoon character, Joe Btfsplk, who always had a black cloud over him. I concluded he was a Syracuse resident.

I can only admire the faith of eclipse lovers who give credence to cloud forecasts a week out. As is, there is still a weather pattern to digest this week. Once that is past, the models may have some credibility. Until then, not so much, at least imho.

Buffalo NY seems like the best place to see the eclipse, it's in the center of the totality path and one can vacation in Niagara Falls afterwards. Plus there is a decent airport, so access is easy. Rochester NY is equally good, but there is less to see there for after the eclipse.

Sobering. Iirc, the Hekla/Katla eruptions were very rich in fluorine, which made them especially lethal for both livestock as well as people. Oraefajokull is very much an unappreciated hazard, an explosive VEI 5 event would halt North Atlantic air traffic entirely.

Keflavik airport is at the end of the peninsula. If it gets isolated by these eruptions, it would be crippling for Iceland, tourism is a huge part of the economy. Are there any contingency plans that have been prepared or are they confident that these eruptions will remain contained?

In defense of the activists, the issue with wind turbines is that they very effectively kill larger raptors, who are oblivious to turbine blades while soaring. Those birds are few and slower breeders than the little passerines that get killed smashing into buildings. Separately, turbines also do a number on bats, which are almost equally important ecologically as birds, but happily not vulnerable to buildings.

The Fermi paradox is quite separate from the life emergence question. Life on earth seems to have started at least 2 billion years ago, possibly as soon as the oceans cooled to less than bathtub temperature. Even if it then took a couple of billion years for life to evolve enough to get vertebrates such as fishes, reptiles and birds, that still left a half billion years of life getting periodically hit by stuff such as the Permian extinction, much more devastating than the more modest Chicxulub event. So life on earth was puttering along for ages with no indication whatever of any industrial intelligence emerging until now, and even here the drive was for stasis, as the Chinese and Roman empires showed. The cultural revolution that led to our current industrial society reflects the combination of the European religious upheavals and the brutal fighting that it produced so that industrial muscle and understanding became a critical national asset. Imho, that combination was essential to drive our world to where it is today, reaching out to the other planets and listening for other aliens with intelligence. On that basis, the past 500 years of human development should be seen as a one in a million event in the past 500 million years of complex life on earth. There are, at a guess, maybe a thousand planets with earth like characteristics within a thousand light years of earth, so we have maybe one chance in a thousand that their time of having an intelligent industrial civilization overlaps with ours. Fermi's paradox really isn't one, it seems.

These numbers are from 40+ years ago. Is there nothing more current?? Pheasants have very high reproductive capacity, as do wild turkeys. I know the latter are doing very well, so surprised that pheasants are in trouble.

Don't be upset, the weenies are just a reminder to feed your pointer some as a reward. Very fine dog, do you show him?

Does this not kill the hope of longer term (say more than 4-5 days) forecasting? Certainly the models have grown a lot bigger, but they still don't verify very well in the medium or longer term.