etudiant

Well, you're probably reasonable well placed to avoid any storm surge, certainly better than I'd thought. I've no idea what the aftermath of a Florida hurricane is like, do people get together to pick up the pieces or is it 'Lord of Flies'? Certainly a learning experience for the kids.

Honestly, if you have kids and expect a potential 10' storm surge, you should get out. Life is too precious to be stubborn.

Exactly! People know this and consequently prefer to risk their lives by riding out the storm, just to avoid losing all their possessions to criminals and vandals.

Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have. Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step. Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return.

There was a very good illustration map of the Sarasota area in a post yesterday, which allowed one to see the streets progressively inundated as the surge went from nothing to 10 feet. I know zip about Florida, so no idea whether your friend's location is covered. In any case, maps and good models exist. Good luck!!

Surely the most likely is under 10". We have all the makings of a non event winter, what would produce a near normal result?

Imho, there is little to be learned from the further evolution of Ernesto. Rather we need to understand how come high Atlantic SSTs are not translating into more and better hurricanes. Right now, the various forecasts appear to show little skill at best. Does anyone have a possibly better approach? Asking, pretty please!

Has Rhode Island been considered or even the CT coast past New Haven? These areas are a little less accessible from the big cities, but still quite wonderful.

Pretty sure Peregrine strikes kill the victim, but beyond that, they usually start with the head, which kills quickly. However, other raptors are less considerate, so it is not unknown.

Not sure that follows. I see no reason why people back then would hike their numbers. Maybe the current models have weaknesses instead.

Was Beryl considered to be 'fast moving'? Afaik, the storm was only going about 10 mph when it hit the coast.

It should be called the Irish shot. in honor of its creator.

Iirc, we had a similar situation a little over a year ago, possibly April, which had a cool spell that raised the odds on a below normal month. That did not happen because the last part of the month was warm enough to keep the AN trend intact.

Excellently illuminating comment. Thank you!

Seems to me that JB uses analogs extensively, sometimes that works super, Sandy being the prime example, sometimes (perhaps more often than not) it does not. So he is one of the sources that amateurs like me try to keep up with, recognizing his biases. I'd guess that for his paying members, just one outlier call that eventuates will pay for a century's worth of subscriptions. So Perhaps consider him as the counterpoint opinion, often astray, but still useful.