Pretty realistic assessment from GYX this evening for our areas.
The storm system we have been watching for Tuesday took a
northward jog on the latest models runs, and show a significant
snowfall for southern areas. While a change of one run wouldn`t
normally justify a significant change in thinking for a
forecast, we were watching for this northward trend to appear on
this run. Although lacking any hard numbers to back it up,
recent memory serves as a reminder that these west to east
storms have trended northward beginning around the day 4
timeframe. The expectation is that the model and ensemble runs
would continue to trend a little farther north over the next few
runs. We`ll watch for this trend to continue, and adjust
accordingly if it does not, but POPs were brought up much higher
than NBM with this forecast for Tuesday in anticipation of a
continued trend. While still too early to discuss specific
amounts, there is certainly the potential for warning level
snowfall across at least southern areas for late Monday night
and Tuesday with this system. There is also a strong consensus
that this system will have a sharp northern edge, with snowfall
amounts quickly dropping off on the northern edge somewhere in
our CWA. Where this edge ends up will be a difficult forecast
challenge that we will work to resolve over the next few days.