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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    The 00z UKMET went with the euro progression... mostly snow and sleet for the thursday storm.
  2. chris21
    Sleet/Zr just started in Mt. Pleasant, DC. 30/22. Unfortunately more zr than sleet. Radar actually looks rather robust, euro may have been on to something but we shall see.
  3. chris21
    I’ll try... not great but wayyy better than last year. At least Utah isn’t the closest location to find snow to snowboard on.
  4. chris21
    If nothing else... after somewhat insane run to run changes prior to our last few events... the euro has been remarkably consistent the past four runs with this event depicting between .38 and .44 qpf as freezing rain.
  5. chris21
    Hmm. It’s 29 in NW DC.
  6. chris21
    RGEM looks identical if not a bit wetter than the 00z NAM.
  7. chris21
    Car topper in mt. Pleasant! 30/22.
  8. chris21
    18z euro continues to depict a nasty ice storm with no sleet and .38 inch of freezing rain in dc, essentially the same solution as 12z.
  9. chris21
    Kind of all over the place... the para is a fair amount wetter at 18z. Gfs is a little drier but includes more sleet now. RGEM is a nasty ice storm with over .3, icon is .4 and euro is .4. 3k was a lot wetter at 18z than 12z and the NAM was pretty much the same.
  10. chris21
    That 99’ storm was really brutal in Bethesda. Power out for a week and extensive tree damage even though the temp warmed up to 50 the next day. Not sure anyone has been forecasting that (3/4 inch of ice)... but an RGEM/euro combo would be a warning level Ice storm in the district with temps in the 20s.
  11. chris21
    It gets about .2 qpf up to dc.
  12. chris21
    I think even .03 of freezing rain in these temps in dc would be more impactful than any event we’ve had. I could be wrong... just my experience with ice events with cold temps.
  13. chris21
    I think this will actually be the most impactful event in dc so far this winter. Not saying much...
  14. chris21
    Lol! I’d say the NAM pretty much held serve. Roughly .2 of qpf at 12z with maybe .16 at 18z. The 3k is a lot wetter though... it had no precip within 50 miles of dc in the 12z run. Goalposts prob narrowing but each model now shows between .15 and .4 of sleet/freezing rain falling with temps between 26 and 29.
  15. chris21
    RGEM would be over .2 qpf... a bit of sleet to freezing rain with temps around 26-29 in DC, while the icon went back to the idea of a half inch of ice with temps in the mid 20s at 12z.
  16. chris21
    I know everyone is rooting against the ice storm, but as psu mentioned, a stronger wave on sat would not allow the Sunday wave enough space to amp up.
  17. chris21
    I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing.
  18. chris21
    Normally a day and a half out, I could look at that euro projection and be rather confident that it will at least be close to verification. Honestly though, lately, I might as well be looking at the 51 hour RAP.
  19. chris21
    You could do this nearly everyday for the past ten years if you are using DCA as an example. DCA is the warmest reading in the entire area at least 9/10 times. The city is usually 2-5 degrees colder (at least my weather station in mt pleasant is).
  20. chris21
    Lol, for next week? The 00z run I’m seeing has temps in the teens and low 20s. What’s your bar for cold?
  21. chris21
    It will still accumulate on everything (particularly at night) if the temp is 31 or below even with heavy rates, it just won’t be as efficient at accumulating.
  22. chris21
    It spits out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain which would actually still be impactful with a temp in the upper 20s. The GFS is the driest solution by a long shot at this point.
  23. chris21
    I bet this will be the one time we overperform. We certainly did with the ice two weeks ago.
  24. chris21
    Wow, the NAM is a lot more enthused about the ice prospects after a really dry run at 12z.
  25. chris21
    UK gets an inch to an inch and a half to dc.
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