chris21
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Everything posted by chris21
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Absolutely dumping in Canaan per the white grass webcams. From a brief analysis of the data on Canaan snow, the 23 inch snowpack there appears to have a remarkable liquid equivalent (over 8 inches of qpf has fallen as snow with little melting for the past two months).
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Legit light-mid snow in nw dc. 32/24. Sticking on all exposed surfaces.
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Same. Shad should be running in three-four weeks even if it’s cold.
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I’ll say this... I have a snowboarding trip to Canaan on March 4-7th.... not too worried about it being wintery. Look at the 12z models. Being a resident of dc for 30 years... spring doesn’t come cheap.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
chris21 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall). -
Light snow (rimed flakes) coming down at a decent clip in adams Morgan/mt. Pleasant. 29.
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In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight.
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That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast totals.
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They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.
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If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way.
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Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there
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GFS and Para hold serve with 3-6 inches for the cities before sleet and then freezing rain. Still printing out over an inch of frozen qpf with temps in the 20s.
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Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? My former alma mater St. Mary’s? Absolutely
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I’ll take the 12z in DC... over 1 inch qpf of snow/sleet by 18z.
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I see temps between 25-28 for the duration of the storm in dc-Balt on the 06z NAM
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NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet.
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Still looks real cold at the surface... do you mean upstairs?
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06z Euro is still a high impact winter storm with very cold temps. Just more sleet and some freezing rain in dc rather than snow. This time it won’t be rain...
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00z Euro was better for snow over the dc-Balt area.
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Lol! Absolutely true in the dc region. Luckily we are essentially within 36 hours and every hour that ticks by without a sudden shift makes that less likely.
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You could always say that and be right 90 percent of the time. However, doubt the models have the placement of the Thursday night precip locked down 48 hours in advance when they just started showing wraparound precip for the first time 12 hours ago.
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Looks really different from the dec storm... what are the similarities?
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That’s just the nws discussion from lwx. Pretty sure they will lift watches with the afternoon package given the 12z runs.
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If the temps are in the 20s it certainly will. On March 9th, 1999, the streets of dc were covered in over 7 inches of snow from a daytime event in mid March. How would you explain that?
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How about the three day storm less than three weeks ago?
