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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    I know everyone is rooting against the ice storm, but as psu mentioned, a stronger wave on sat would not allow the Sunday wave enough space to amp up.
  2. chris21
    I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing.
  3. chris21
    Normally a day and a half out, I could look at that euro projection and be rather confident that it will at least be close to verification. Honestly though, lately, I might as well be looking at the 51 hour RAP.
  4. chris21
    You could do this nearly everyday for the past ten years if you are using DCA as an example. DCA is the warmest reading in the entire area at least 9/10 times. The city is usually 2-5 degrees colder (at least my weather station in mt pleasant is).
  5. chris21
    Lol, for next week? The 00z run I’m seeing has temps in the teens and low 20s. What’s your bar for cold?
  6. chris21
    It will still accumulate on everything (particularly at night) if the temp is 31 or below even with heavy rates, it just won’t be as efficient at accumulating.
  7. chris21
    It spits out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain which would actually still be impactful with a temp in the upper 20s. The GFS is the driest solution by a long shot at this point.
  8. chris21
    I bet this will be the one time we overperform. We certainly did with the ice two weeks ago.
  9. chris21
    Wow, the NAM is a lot more enthused about the ice prospects after a really dry run at 12z.
  10. chris21
    UK gets an inch to an inch and a half to dc.
  11. chris21
    Hey man... the HRRR has dc in some light snow tonight for the first time as of the latest run. I’m starting to care a bit more after this latest debacle.
  12. chris21
    CMC really beefed up qpf for Saturday. Kind of surprised to see that to be honest.
  13. chris21
    This could also be why March has become more of a winter month in dc lately.
  14. chris21
    It will snow again in DC!!
  15. chris21
    We had a nice ice storm that accumulated on the roads here in nw dc less than two weeks ago.
  16. chris21
    35/31 rain snow mix in NW.
  17. chris21
    Yeah... the trends def are not good but we have a major issue with calling a storm before it even starts. The last three day snowfall was an excellent example... everyone was whining and bitching for days but we still managed 5.5 beautiful inches in nw and I enjoyed it thoroughly. Some of our members would should check out Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations.
  18. chris21
    We have busted high many a time. Most recently Jan 2019 was a nice positive bust.
  19. chris21
    The snow map is def wonky. I’m seeing temps on the para of about 32-33 in the northern half of the district at least. Hoping that that might be at least good for 1-2 inches of snow/sleet.
  20. chris21
    It’s frustrating... but hopefully we can catch a break this time... it’s very close and I’ll pretty much take sleet or snow at this point.
  21. chris21
    The NAM nest shows a general 3-7 inches from just south of DC to the PA line.
  22. chris21
    If DC gets the 1.4 inches of qpf the NAM spots out in frozen form over the next 84 hours... whether that be snow or sleet or freezing rain... I’ll be pretty satisfied.
  23. chris21
    The NAM shows the temp dropping below freezing early tomorrow morning. But yeah... that’s almost always a concern in the city unfortunately, even more so downtown.
  24. chris21
    Thats kind of picking the worst panel... and doesn't really give a good overview of the general pattern evolution.
  25. chris21
    It was actually pretty decent... even from Uber long range.
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