Cobalt

Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support.

Yeah but that's not exactly of importance here. That works for Arctic airmasses with a guaranteed front end thump (President's Day 2016, Feb 21 2015 for example). Those were cold temp days with dews in the single digits for most before precip. Here we have an iffy airmass (albeit pretty good for December standards), and precip is running alongside temps. By the time precip is on our doorstep, we're already close to changeover regardless of CAD or not. If we had a mid-winter airmass with precip going directly under us then yeah I'd side with the CAD argument, but that doesn't matter here it seems

I think that's the best way to describe it. Whoever stays frozen is gonna bank on those rates piling on the snow. I'll roll the dice with the potential mixing, really excited to see the mesos get a hold of how that mixing will set up

Snowhole bingo card incoming???

2M temps and 850s seem basically identical, if not just super tiny changes. I'd imagine that's just noise, or maybe due to rates? Idk, but I guess it's a step back but not a Euro type step back. I'll take that track any day and hope the mesos get a good grip on the thermal setup.

bleh

Kuchera, for reference.

Here's a trend of the lps too, nice.

Was gonna say this before the 0z suite came out but forgot to, but thanks PSU and others for the incredible analysis about the storm itself, as well as analysis on med/long range patterns. You guys are what make this worthwhile, and it's amazing to learn from some of the best. Cheers!

Cutting with a 1033 high directly over top of us would be very 2020

I was the ripe old age of 0.5 at the time but 03-04 was frontloaded, no? Pretty sure there was a few good snows in December but not much else for the Mid Atlantic, from what I've seen.

True, but we entered NAM range thinking it would be a 2-4/3-5" event. All of the big trends were short range. What I meant was a storm that we could track all the way from med range knowing we have a good shot at WSW criteria for a decent chunk of the subforum. Kind of a niche way to describe it, but just thought it was interesting

fyp Speaking of which, is this the last time we've actually been tracking a potential WSW event in the medium range since March 20-21 2018? The Jan storm wouldn't count since all positive trends were basically short range. Even March 20-21 didn't verify, so maybe the last one since Jan 2016??

The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference?

Yup, seems like a good bit of ice solutions, but we're still in a somewhat decent spot

Taken with obvious med/long range grain of salt, but the trends on both the GEFS and the GFS have been really nice to say the least.

Kuchera, for reference.

Here they are. A couple that jackpot SE of DC, surprisingly, which inspires some confidence

in CAD we trust?

Interesting to see that CAD signature show up on multiple models

I mean, 57 runs until we see this verify, but yeah not the best scenario to be heading into. Hope DT's ideas of nina's lessening impact come to fruition in late Jan/Feb to circumvent this.

Ukie didn't seem to hold back all too much, interesting to see if the Euro is similar

Apologies, only if the models would support a storm for them that is. Not trying to backseat forecast in a subforum that doesn't belong to us ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Anywho, getting off topic, but the ICON seems to be getting Saturday's storm out of the way a bit earlier. Wonder how that'll translate to Tuesday's event given the extra spacing.

We gotta get the Southeastern forum to make threads about southern sliders so we can swoop in and will them our way I guess