Cobalt

2.25”, over an inch in this past hour. Mix line is 3 miles from me unfortunately :/ .

1.5" as of 15 minutes ago, still suuuper good rates and fat snowflakes. More than 2 inches of snow would completely surpass expectations. Feeling really 11/15/18 out there.

0.7" here!! Glad to be on the board. Regardless of changeover, no better time to have snow than before Christmas.

Excited for the western folks of this forum to cash in big time!! I don't know why people see other people getting big totals as some sort of reason to get angry, for me it's all the more motivation to move out of this urban beltway hellhole when I'm old enough

Some people are on Tapatalk which doesn't show that information IIRC

Didn't they fare rather well in the March 2017 storm? This storm feels like it has an uncanny resemblance to that one. In fact our airmass is probably way worse, but of course that's a March storm rather than mid December.

40 degrees here in McLean at 451' ASL

To those saying next! Seems.. workable? Temps still super marginal on the means but there's a cluster of lows, just a matter of time until we can parse through the details. PNA spike during this time too, so I'm curious as to how this looks in a few days.

3k NAM doesn't change anyone west of I-95 over to rain it seems, but it has some horrendous amounts of freezing rain and ice compared to last run.

Can't tell if I'm seeing things but yeah the initial WAA looks way beefier Through 0z (when DC and immediate NW changes over) vs 18z at that exact time Obviously grasping at straws, and it doesn't matter if that extra snow is washed away from a low that tracks up the bay, but I thought this was somewhat interesting to see so I thought I'd share.

the Euro was wayyy better with the rates of the WAA there. That's where I-95 and immediate points West get most of the snow there. Wondering if that'll be a prominent trend but that snowfall is more believable than the snow it was giving us on wraparound

DT's forecast, more useful than the clown maps snowchaser is posting

For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them?

The high pressure seemed to be more expansive on this run. Surface looked super bad but it'll be interesting to see how these backend snows trend

Hi yes reason number 47 as to why the 3knam might not be in it's wheelhouse range yet Although it does depict the DC snowhole quite well :p

Measuring on my roof to get .5 inches of extra elevation based snow >

Do I dare post the clown map? I guess I'll do it anyways. Note that the Euro for whatever reason gives immediate west areas of I-95 like .5-1" of snow for today for some reason, as well as 2-3" where it jackpots places for Wednesday. Kuchera ratios to be taken lightly obviously, but mainly using Kuchera in replacement for 10:1 due to the marginal DC temps.

Yup same here, I'm rooting for our western peeps to cash in big. They got a few nothingburgers during 16-17 and 17-18. A whole bunch of southern sliders in there that completely screwed them over.

Don't think anyone could've said it better than this. For the past few days, even when the GFS and even the Euro were showing decent outputs, we were still walking between raindrops. No 100% consensus, still NW solutions, and plenty of time for the typical NW jog. It's also just a product of the time of year, we're still a month and change away from prime snow climo. Just gotta pack up and move on, hopefully this pattern delivers for the people who have been snow droughted the most (just looking forward, the EPS has a bundle of lows centered around Indiana on Christmas day )

We do snow chasing rain good once every half decade here it seems. In recent memory 1/26/2011 and 3/5/2015 are prime examples. Although those share basically no similarities, 1/26 was ULL swinging in and 3/5 was an Arctic airmass. So yeah, we're screwed lol

Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support.

Yeah but that's not exactly of importance here. That works for Arctic airmasses with a guaranteed front end thump (President's Day 2016, Feb 21 2015 for example). Those were cold temp days with dews in the single digits for most before precip. Here we have an iffy airmass (albeit pretty good for December standards), and precip is running alongside temps. By the time precip is on our doorstep, we're already close to changeover regardless of CAD or not. If we had a mid-winter airmass with precip going directly under us then yeah I'd side with the CAD argument, but that doesn't matter here it seems

I think that's the best way to describe it. Whoever stays frozen is gonna bank on those rates piling on the snow. I'll roll the dice with the potential mixing, really excited to see the mesos get a hold of how that mixing will set up

Snowhole bingo card incoming???

2M temps and 850s seem basically identical, if not just super tiny changes. I'd imagine that's just noise, or maybe due to rates? Idk, but I guess it's a step back but not a Euro type step back. I'll take that track any day and hope the mesos get a good grip on the thermal setup.