Cobalt

PSU has mentioned the threat on the 26th for around 2-4 days, so yes it is getting closer in time. I only pointed out that the ensembles have quite the consensus this far out, especially when compared to the paltry signal that it had for the 22 non-threat just a few days ago. My point is, the threat has legs. What pair of legs it has is still tbd.

If there's any time to notice a day 10 signal.. that cluster is strikingly impressive. As PSU said, was 11 days to go yesterday, now 10. Just a few days for this look to not completely fall apart and we have a threat to track. Also the high pressure showing up on the ensembles is impressive too. Can't really ask for more this far out

Probably the only time any random 24 hour snow mean should be used outside of 10 days is to show how impressive a signal like this is.. like wow.

Although it is taking quite a while to eject out of the SW.. let's see if the confluence offsets that

I've heard some good things about Pivotalweather's paid subscription, but I haven't looked into it all too much. Turning 18 in June also yes, that was WeathermanB, but yeah I hope thoughts of him aren't brought to mind when I'm posting lol

It got the Dec 25 snow showers rather spot on, it's been sharp since it's upgrade in early December Pummeled!! Regardless that would be fun, we def need a pick-me-up, and scattered 1-3" amounts would certainly do the trick before we get into the main pattern

I agree. 12" on top of the 2.5" I've gotten so far this year would be around the most snow my area has seen in a La Nina in my lifetime (no 95-96 or 99-00 to throw in there of course), and we'd obviously have a chance to get some SECSY/HECSY action with the Modoki Mod Nino + low solar next year

@CAPE Thanks for the kind words. I know I'm not up to par with some of the expert posters here, but their collective knowledge has certainly helped with my understanding of meteorology these past few years. I checked back to when I first started posting in December 2017 and.. I honestly can't believe you guys managed to bare with me through all my weenieisms :p but I guess everyone has to start somewhere. Snow hardships certainly helped to quell my weenie ways that winter

I know that the accuracy tends to drop off significantly out there, and that's also why I prefaced my post with saying that outside of 3 weeks the weeklies really go out of their way to go towards typical ENSO patterns. Although with that being said, my takeaway from that week 4 h5 map was that it was surprisingly not doing what it did the past few runs at that range, and instead tried to get us back into a favorable progression despite it's biases. Not worth much this far out, but will certainly be super fascinating to follow in about a week or two. yeah basically what CAPE just said

Usually you'd expect the weeklies to do its best to revert back to a nina pattern and to pump the SE ridge, but even going a month out the blocking looks decently stout, SE ridge squashed too. Workable look especially when considering Weeklies bias 2 weeks out.

Snow squall warning time

I remember reading somewhere that in terms of tree growing ordinance, a yearly minimum low temp of 22 is similar to areas such as Houston and New Orleans. Anyone up for planting some palm trees?

In my short lifetime, Feb/March 2015 is also an epic period that completely slashed the narrative of that winter. 2 warning level events, a bunch of great WWA level events, and of course 3"+/hr rates for 30 minutes in that absurd Valentine's day snow squall. The first time 5th grade me had gotten back into following weather after being sad over March 6 2013 (surprisingly I have 0 recollection of 13/14, unfortunately), but yeah that was also an epic stretch.

Impressive precip signal for the PSU v2 storm, especially for 12 days out

Big cluster of lps that take it through the great lakes, still a cluster of weaker waves that take the lp near our latitude though, but it's certainly not the favored camp.

Perhaps 17-18 is more fitting, given how scorched North America was in February

Who are you and what did you do with Ji!???

I will say, the 0z EPS centered the snow mean basically identically to that 12z Euro run. Makes sense given that the window looks wayy more favorable for points North

Seems like the faster the storm ejects out of the SW, the less of a chance there is for the SE ridge to pump up heights ahead of the storm? At least that's what it seems like given that solution compared to the GFS cutting. Hoping blocking can pull through, but as that Eric Webb tweet I posted earlier, that seems to be fleeting a bit

If there's one thing we're good at, it's front end thumps

Since we're on the topic of snowless periods.. how does the early 14/15 winter pattern compare to what we're going through right now? Obviously the pattern we're in has for sure been serviceable, but I'm mainly contrasting that winter and this one because it seems like Feb '15 essentially flipped a switch after a super dormant period with not much domestic cold. I know that was a PAC based shift, but before that from late Nov to late January (outside of the fluke warning level clipper), it was basically a snowless pattern for 60 days, going all the way into what would be the peak climo of late January. What went into that big shift?

Posting this for reference to check in 5 days, but the GEFS keeps muting any cold within day 10. Makes sense right now given no EPO and a fight between the western trough and the -NAO, but here, given that we'll have the EPO to help bleed the cold in, if this look gets muted and warms us up DESPITE some PAC help.. then yeah we're probably screwed. Also a check to see if the progression keeps getting delayed..

Putting on my Weather Will cap but.. PSU v2 storm looks ripe on the snow mean.. as good of a signal as you can get this far out As for the 21/22 threat.. this isn't actually a disappointing mean. We're south of the center of the mean and the 850s are borderline, but we have blocking on our side at the very least. Glad we're dealing with a signal rather than a flicker so to speak.

The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking Primary goes into Wisconsin and there's still blue over our area, so probably lol