Cobalt

Seems like we're better off banking on the wave slowing rather than speeding up.. seems like models tend to slow down storms anywho. Wasn't that what happened with the Dec 16/17th storm, where the slowdown allowed the 50/50 low to ease to the east somewhat?

Eh, I wouldn't say exactly that. The probability tool is actually pretty useful here. With the 0z runs there was a fair bit more consensus with getting snowfall into our area, generally 30-50% of ensemble members in our general subforum area gave us 1" or more, compared to ~20-40% this run. Probably a big hitter or two skewing the mean here.

Fortunately (or unfortunately), we're not the only ones in snow anguish it seems. Out in Jackson Hole for the week and according to some avid skiers, aside from out near British Columbia, there isn't much snow at the big resorts in the Rockies. Park City is managing with a ~20" base depth and they got saved by 10 inches of snow two days ago. Doesn't seem to be much help there in the near future. Maybe we're just in the wrong hemisphere?

I've seen worse snow means?

I might be going out on a limb here, but it seems like to combat the increase in temps, we need our PAC look to be substantially better than it used to. That's what made our rather frequent events in 13/14 and 14/15 work out pretty well. I mentioned this in the banter thread, but that necessity has to undoubtedly hurt us in Ninas, since for any high end WWA or WSW events (as pointed out by PSU) they require the favorable Atlantic to be our main lifeline to pull off those events. Yet if the pacific needs to be perfect to prevent a warm/wet and cold/dry regime, we're essentially dancing between both the PAC and Atlantic teleconnections. Like I said, I'm probably going out on a limb, but that's the main way I can see how most of our Ninos in the past decade have been near or above climo, while we've punted numerous good patterns in recent Ninas.

Thermals holding on through 132 but it's close. A decent thump of snow, considerable improvement compared to 12z

That's the GEFS, unless you're comparing that to the EPS.

I've seen worse trends at 60hrs out?? Congrats SW Virginia though, reminds me of a certain storm a few years back... Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like we tend to have these stretches more frequently in Ninas? Even if the pattern is comparable, it just seems like with increasingly marginal temps, any sheared or weak wave of precip that we get just has no effect. Our Nino in 18-19 had a few nickel and dime events IMBY, and from mid Jan through early March I recorded 6 events ranging from .4" to 2.1" (This is of course not including the 4 inches MBY got from the Feb 20th storm). That pattern was certainly not what we'd call perfect during that time, but there was still a respectable amount of snow events. Perhaps it's recency bias, but it certainly does seem like the gap between Nina and Nino winters is growing with our temp gradient increasing over the years.

Would comply with the Jan 15-20 idea. The main takeaway from that Euro is the pure rapid-fire nature of shortwaves, just gonna need some luck and timing to make one work.

0z Euro is certainly more suppressed, not a cave to the GFS, but quite the shift.. although the interesting thing is that the storm gains latitude earlier than it's 0z counterpart, near the Louisiana coast rather than over Tallahassee. 18z EPS did the same IIRC, so perhaps that's our ticket to getting the storm up here?

0z Euro for the late week threat, FWIW. Here’s the 12z Euro at the same time. A bit wonky in precip, but a definite jump North with the lp .

Based on history, yes. Jan 30 2010 happened right as the blocking was established, no? Of course that gave us a great snowfall because it was a juiced STJ Nino system, but that bullseyed North Carolina and Southern Virginia anyways. Even in March of 2018 we were teased with the 12-13 system that gave SW VA some snow and redeveloped and crushed New England. Even there we had to wait another 10 days to get our storm which would’ve been a MECS/SECS if it had happened a month earlier. My point? Chill out a bit, we’ll get our pattern, and in prime snow climo I wouldn’t have it any other way. Judging by how you claim to like digital snow almost as much as snow on the ground, you still should prefer long range tracking like what is coming up exponentially better than a shutout pattern like last year. .

I honestly hate to feed the beast by responding to your weenie tirades, but as others have stated, isn’t anything before Jan 15th low probability anyways? As the GFS has demonstrated not wanting to show blue over us (even with sub 540 heights and bountiful precip), before the cold air is established when the PAC becomes more favorable, it seems like our axis of snowfall would be incredibly thin anyways. And besides, our prime climo for snowfall is Jan 15-Feb 15 anywho. Digital snow can be wonderful, but maybe the reason that the models correct and shift snow away from us in the med range in patterns like this is because.. history suggests that the pattern currently in place isn’t ripe for a substantial snowfall in our area, at least yet?? .

The Euro Control is somewhat farther NW than it's Op brother, but it highlights the marginal temps and what we're dealing with in regards to snow chances before the pattern asserts itself. Not much of accumulation, but interesting that it's a fair bit farther NW

I feel like I remember hearing somewhere that March 5 2013 was a Miller B. Is this thinking correct? I know areas near Richmond got a WSW level event and of course out near the Shenandoah area they got double digit snowfalls. Would the track being farther to the south suggest that it was more of a hybrid?

Pretty decent cluster for 7 days out. I'll be away on vacation until the 13th (go figure), but hopefully this storm can be willed into favoring a fair bit of the subforum. Not a terrible track, and it seems like some of the Ops/Ens want to deliver on that "gravy" as was mentioned earlier by PSU and others.

Glad to see that parts of the subforum can get NAM'ed, even in a shutout pattern

Don't worry, we scored on our first drive, and while we've stagnated since, I'm sure that the halftime pep talk will spring us right back into action for the second half.

0z Euro trying to do something with our Jan 3rd costal but 850s are... pretty toasty

Basically exactly 7 days in the future. That's honestly kind of uncanny

GFS still has that Jan 3 low that the Euro showed and lost but it's a good bit off the coast. Jan 4 2018 redux anyone?? edit: Ninja'd!

The ICON had a similar idea with a trailing wave following the cutter but it was all rain. Split the difference and you’ve got a storm! .

Awesome stuff!! Glad you guys are gonna get a white Christmas

Believe so, and apparently it was a bit more consistent with last week's event as well. FWIW it's a good bit less cutteriffic in the LR but then again the GFS seems to have been pretty spot on with the Dec 28 and new years cutters so idk.

Hah, I’m leaving on the 3rd over here. Seems like these sort of storms like to move out a day or so In timing, so perhaps you’ll get your wish ! .