Cobalt

That seems like basically what we've had this January so far lol. And at the very least there's some cold on the continent when compared to this month. Like CAPE said, it can certainly bleed east back and forth as long as our NAO wants to play ball and hinder any SE ridge.

18z Para is a good hit for some of our area it seems.. What are the para's verification scores looking like?? :p

At the very least with the trough out west we have cold somewhere on our continent. Even with blues over us this past month cold air has been MIA.

EPS looks the best it has within 10 days. Can’t check what individual members show at the moment .

It certainly doesn't fringe you for 6z. It's still insistent on taking the initial first wave through as a somewhat sheared mess and then trailing up a more coherent system right behind it. Might be apparent on the GEFS too. Speaking of GEFS, it certainly has a fair bit less low pressures that cut for 6z compared to 0z. Hope that the trends there keep up.

Thanks for the clarification. I gave into their doom and gloom once I saw the GEFS trend towards bring the EPO positive wayyy sooner, but it also makes sense given that now we actually have some cold on our side of the Northern Hemisphere. Should give us a few shots even if the PAC goes to crap in early Feb

Punting with 4 minutes left in the fourth with just 1 timeout? Ballsy. Not looking good for them.

It seems like the Para had a super wacky evolution actually. It drives a low through the great lakes around the 25th (earlier than the GFS does), and right behind it a wave impacts Central Virginia on the 26th. I guess the whole point with that is that the evolution of the storm isnt even close to set in storm yet.

Compared to 18z yesterday, the GFS is showing more frozen precip when the primary lp is up in Minnesota, rather than showing mostly rain when the low pressure was in southern Virginia during that 18z Saturday run.

Pretty great precip signature, now within 8 1/2 days lp clusters Some pretty great hits in there, the best snow mean since the fluke 12z run yesterday.

Sped up progression a decent bit too. Also lol at lp taking a trip from south Illinois to north Illinois

Our biggest battle has been actually getting storms within day 7 without them turning into a shredded mess on the models.. not worried about a day 9 model showing a rainer

Great QPF mean for sure

Doesn't matter given that it's 9 + days out, but that axis of snow looks strikingly similar to the Jan 26 2011 PSU storm. Also the storm that got me into meteorology at the ripe age of 7 :p

I think the big takeaway from this range has been that there's pretty good agreement that we're getting a decent qpf system near or at our latitude. Haven't had something like that for nearly over a month now

Also in regards to true cold seeming so far out.. true cold is already on range within day 7. Baby steps...

EPS actually took a bit of a step back from 12z wrt the threat on the 26th, but it makes sense given that the 12z mean was incredibly anomalous, but it points out the amount of chances we're probably gonna get, and is already showing a signal for a threat around the 30th Banana high showing up nicely too Considering those are both means centered around day 14, it shows the kind of pattern we're in. Even if we miss out on the 26th threat, as others have said this seems like the type of pattern where if we get a threat into the medium range, we'll be tracking the storm after the storm as well.

Euro is actually pretty interesting for the Thursday event.. trending colder and has blue over a fair bit of the subforum at hr 135, albeit light.

PSU has mentioned the threat on the 26th for around 2-4 days, so yes it is getting closer in time. I only pointed out that the ensembles have quite the consensus this far out, especially when compared to the paltry signal that it had for the 22 non-threat just a few days ago. My point is, the threat has legs. What pair of legs it has is still tbd.

If there's any time to notice a day 10 signal.. that cluster is strikingly impressive. As PSU said, was 11 days to go yesterday, now 10. Just a few days for this look to not completely fall apart and we have a threat to track. Also the high pressure showing up on the ensembles is impressive too. Can't really ask for more this far out

Probably the only time any random 24 hour snow mean should be used outside of 10 days is to show how impressive a signal like this is.. like wow.

Although it is taking quite a while to eject out of the SW.. let's see if the confluence offsets that

I've heard some good things about Pivotalweather's paid subscription, but I haven't looked into it all too much. Turning 18 in June also yes, that was WeathermanB, but yeah I hope thoughts of him aren't brought to mind when I'm posting lol

It got the Dec 25 snow showers rather spot on, it's been sharp since it's upgrade in early December Pummeled!! Regardless that would be fun, we def need a pick-me-up, and scattered 1-3" amounts would certainly do the trick before we get into the main pattern