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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Or history might suggest that the GFS isnt done with the south shift and shifts a few hundred miles, setting it up perfectly for you guys *ahem December 2018*
  2. Cobalt
    I guess a step back from 12z, but still a good signal I was actually thinking about your rule about where we want a storm for it to adjust north last minute. Seems like even the suppressed GFS is in a decent spot for us. Shades of those few Euro runs for Jan 2016 where it completely jackpotted Richmond.
  3. Cobalt
    Reminds me of something...
  4. Cobalt
    Seems like it succeeded?? Moderate snow back into DC at 114.
  5. Cobalt
    Consider the 850s during the heaviest part of the storm. The 850s get even colder after the low pulls offshore a bit (still snowing though). This certainly wouldnt be 10:1, especially for the elevated areas and places where their average ratios are already 12:1 or more.
  6. Cobalt
    Remember that this includes snow from the Monday system. Here's what seems to be a better map. Also that doesnt include the fact that it's a fluff bomb for points NW
  7. Cobalt
    Jan 2000 is one of the top analogs based on the GEFS for days 8-14. Also Feb 1994.
  8. Cobalt
    Just like the GFS, the Euro takes a fair portion of our area back to snow. 1 more shift south like that and I'd imagine some parts of our subforum (you know who you are) would be shoveling this
  9. Cobalt
    March 5 2015 as well. 40s and rain changing to heavy snow. I think IAD recorded ~9 inches of snow in that.
  10. Cobalt
    GEFS has continuously been getting juicier for the 28th threat. I'd imagine some good hits fit into that mean. One thing of note was the higher heights leading into the storm compared to 6z. This 6z's wettest panel FWIW
  11. Cobalt
    Hope this is good. Captures most of the system, although I couldn't compress the GIF enough to fit the end of the storm.
  12. Cobalt
    Something to watch out for on the Euro/EPS. The GEFS/GFS are insistent on making snow fly on the backend, meanwhile the Euro does the exact opposite. Wonder which caves to which.
  13. Cobalt
    GEFS 850s compared to 6z during the storm. Certainly colder Here's the snow mean to go with it
  14. Cobalt
    Wow.. that system hitting a brick wall with the 50/50 low is a thing of beauty. Intensifies to a 978mb low pressure a fair bit offshore, but I'd imagine the precip would be more expansive than what is depicted. Great run for an op at this range though
  15. Cobalt
    And then a 996 off of Hatteras but the main slug of snow is in Pennsylvania :p. Although the main takeaway is that it has the storm. Interesting evolution too.
  16. Cobalt
    TT is running late for the GFS and I can't figure out a lot of the WxBell panels, but here's the GFS surface depiction at hr 165
  17. Cobalt
    It's interesting that while the Euro insists that DC's best chance of blue is the front end thump, meanwhile the GFS insists on crashing 850s on the backend and turning to snow then. Is it too weenie to ask for both of those scenarios to combine? :p
  18. Cobalt
    ICON suddenly trended warmer at 6z, but is back to a somewhat colder solution. It's a strung out mess however, yet it still manages a med range WWA snowfall for many
  19. Cobalt
    Euro whiffs on our 28th wave but has an interesting intensifying low pressure on the 31st at hour 240. Wonder if that's why the EPS has two distinct waves during that 4 day period.
  20. Cobalt
    WB 0z GEFS says see you next week...
  21. Cobalt
    18z EPS seems like it made another jog nw.. probably not gonna make many friends here
  22. Cobalt
    360 hours out, plenty of time for an east trend??
  23. Cobalt
    The GFS/GEFS never had it put together in the first place
  24. Cobalt
    So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution
  25. Cobalt
    The snow mean was pretty similar, but I still agree on what you said with the change in the individual members from the EPS. For our region the chances of 1" of snow went up, but the chances of 6" of snow on the EPS went down. I'd imagine this suggests that our ticket to success is the front end thump with way less members holding onto thermals
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