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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Can we do this trend in reverse at the same range? Just one time, please? It is quite honestly incredible that the Euro and GFS might both end up showing incredible similar forecas busts one year to the day from each other. Euro shows blizzard at 84 hours = no snow, cave to GFS. GFS shows blizzard at 84 hours = no snow, cave to the Euro. Computer guidance is the great storyteller of our time, setting up heroes, villains, and a lingering sense of impending doom. Gotta love it.
  2. Cobalt
    Dont forget the AI GFS and the Rufus.
  3. Cobalt
    unfortunately..
  4. Cobalt
    Jan 3rd 2022 as mentioned a little while back. That is the gold standard for reverse busts in the modern era, going from dusting Norfolk -> 8-12" DC proper at the 36-42 hour range. Nothing has come close since.
  5. Cobalt
    translates to 0.3" QPF (Pre-IVT) in DC compared to 0" at 12z. I suppose that doesn't mean nothing, but yeah as you said the weak sauce precip translates to a weak sauce column.
  6. Cobalt
    More amped than 0z at the very least? But yeah, closer to a Bermuda Brawler than the GFS solution
  7. Cobalt
    So we've got.. The GFS, the AI GFS, and the Rufus?
  8. Cobalt
    It's been shimmying NW for the past 24 hours. A GFS cave would be completely expected but its AI variant completely whiffing would be less than encouraging for the future of that model.
  9. Cobalt
    The AI GFS nudging a good bit West is, at the very least somewhat encouraging? It and its physics-based counterpart aren't exactly lockstep, and the AI's shift wasnt minute like it tends to be.
  10. Cobalt
  11. Cobalt
    Sequel to folks????
  12. Cobalt
    Very encouraging to see the AI variation have this sort of change.
  13. Cobalt
    The AI GFS is an improvement from 6z. Could tell pretty early on with substantially higher heights out in front. Still running but looks like 0.7"+ for DC and points SE. Doubled from previous run.
  14. Cobalt
    Apples and bowling balls compared to the GFS but the ICON is slightly improved from its (disastrous) 6z iteration. Probably just translates to more IVT love.
  15. Cobalt
    It will always have Jan 3rd 2022. And last year's Feb storm. And Snowquester I think? Gee, what a run the gfs has been on this past decade and a half.
  16. Cobalt
    The lower heights out front are negated by the stronger h5 low and a nice shift of the ridge out West. Encouraging to see that backing into Idaho over the last few runs.
  17. Cobalt
    We are a cursed bunch. This time last year the script was flipped, and the Euro was the snowy solution right before its brutal cave. Maybe psu's simulation idea is correct.
  18. Cobalt
    That's more of a thermals/snow depiction issue than a synoptics one. It was honestly pretty solid wrt to precip extent.
  19. Cobalt
    Why are you still here tracking if we never get any notable events in late February? Why not just cross that out of the calendar each year and take a 1-2 week break?
  20. Cobalt
    I thought rain was the likely outcome like you said a while back? Snow to the east of us is like, the opposite of rain.
  21. Cobalt
    Wow, climo says snow is the unlikely outcome for the Mid Atlantic? This is a truly shocking and bold call to stick with, I've been here thinking that snow is a sure bet around here.
  22. Cobalt
    Definitely feel like we're in the same camp out here, too warm for the initial batch of precip and too far West for the lp jump off the coast. It's okay, we'll cash in with a March 2013 redux in a few short weeks.
  23. Cobalt
    Damn so in following that logic, it's okay to drive while drunk because my blood is only composed of 0.09% alcohol?
  24. Cobalt
    Gigantic + anomalies over Western North America/Greenland all for a paltry cool anomaly the size of Texas right over us. Woof.
  25. Cobalt
    what an odd thing to say.
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