Cobalt

NOAA's official website has June-July as 3rd warmest, only behind 1949 and 1934 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/mapping/36/tavg/202507/2/anomaly Important to note that it also shows that the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th warmest June-Julys for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2005.

How's this looking? From what I can tell Greensboro is at 74.1F as of August 27th. Looks like the final few days will pull the month incredibly close to Aug '92.

Is that not exactly you're doing by using just the years within the 1991-2020 average and nothing else? If not changing the standards, it's focusing only on the ones that push your notions. You're dropping 100 of the 136 years of records because they make this year's averages seem warmer by comparison. Would you look back on June 2025's +1.3 as a "cooler" month just because the 2001-2030 averages might place it as a -0.2, even if it ranks 20th warmest of 136 years?

Are you telling me that this wording Wasn't meant to push any sort of agenda that this Summer was not as warm as others claim? bluewave brought up that you're comparing against the warmest 30 year average, which is a completely valid criticism. From what I can tell June's "only +1.3" is 13th warmest out of 136 years. Words like "only" or "barely AN" are only applicable if we isolate the current 30 year average as the baseline for absolute warmth or cold. That is way more narrow of a scope than what bluewave did, comparing to the entire range of years. Comparing against 136 years is a way better benchmark than just 30.

Both 2-4°C of warming and cooling at the current pace of anthropogenic warming would be catastrophic. Non-transient changes like that do not happen at that sort of rate. Leaving out a time factor in the polls is in poor practice, because it creates a hypothetical environment of set warming or cooling with no time horizon. I think it's better to ask, if we were instead on pace for 2-4°C of cooling by the end of the century, and we knew we were the cause, would we try to pause that trend by mitigating our actions?

3F below normal compared to 1991-2020 averages, the warmest 30 year set. In 2024, 2023, and 2020, the nation blew past 3F above normal during the exact same stretch like nothing. Where were you posting the national temp anomaly maps then?

Light snow, 15F

We're sick and twisted individuals

It torched in December. Pretty sure if not for 2015, Dec 2021 would be the warmest at the 3 airports. That made a BN DJF average impossible, but January-April were pretty chilly as far as La Ninas go.

damn this thing must be a powerhouse if it's snowing all the way from 50mb

Feb 26-27 2004 says hi

My personal favorite - can you guess which winter this post followed? let me give a hint, it starts with an 09 and ends with a -10

Worth bringing up because this isn't all too far fetched at this point. Listed are all the 5"+ snowfalls at DCA during 21st century La Niñas. The last La Niña to feature 2+ snows above 5 inches was 95-96 (3 instances), so the slight chance of DCA not DCAing today would have this winter be the first in nearly 30 years to join that club.

Your file size is limited by other files you've uploaded. On desktop click on your name in the top right, then click "my attachments" (should work on mobile too). Delete the files taking up the most space but definitely save them to your device beforehand. A bunch of lost media over the years all because of an understandable file limit.

checks out.

La Ninas of years past have produced eerily similar fails. Folks might remember that one mid Feb 2021 threat (also February 12th I think?) that had two waves to it. Guidance converged on both waves producing a flush hit from 100+hrs out and I think even the Euro within hour 70 had a widespread 6-12". However, the same 1st wave weak second wave too strong thing happened. It is excessively difficult to put stock in these multi-wave solutions when there is so much give and take to how the guidance places emphasis on either phase of the thing.

Just gotta wait a few weeks my friend. Mid February onwards looks cold and snowy!

Should bring pause to whenever a qg_omega or snowman type person comes out of the gate predicting warmth. Are they making a knowledge-based call in accordance to guidance, analogs, etc, or are they betting on persistence giving them an easy win? It's not rocket science to bet on AN each year, they'll be right 8/10 times nowadays. It's the 2/10 where their true character and intentions come to light.

Wonder whatever happened to this guy

Seems like censorship to me.

always cool when the abbreviated name of a state can also explain what happened with the snowstorm

Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there.

Quick table that illustrates how rare warning level niña snows are in DC. Below is every instance in the 21st century. Anything 7"+ would be the biggest such snow in nearly two decades, and a total exceeding 9.3" would be the biggest since Jan '96.

that cutter pattern you predicted for the next 2 weeks could help with that

Quite a change in your tune from just a few days ago.. what happened?