Cobalt

So we've got.. The GFS, the AI GFS, and the Rufus?

It's been shimmying NW for the past 24 hours. A GFS cave would be completely expected but its AI variant completely whiffing would be less than encouraging for the future of that model.

The AI GFS nudging a good bit West is, at the very least somewhat encouraging? It and its physics-based counterpart aren't exactly lockstep, and the AI's shift wasnt minute like it tends to be.

Sequel to folks????

Very encouraging to see the AI variation have this sort of change.

The AI GFS is an improvement from 6z. Could tell pretty early on with substantially higher heights out in front. Still running but looks like 0.7"+ for DC and points SE. Doubled from previous run.

Apples and bowling balls compared to the GFS but the ICON is slightly improved from its (disastrous) 6z iteration. Probably just translates to more IVT love.

It will always have Jan 3rd 2022. And last year's Feb storm. And Snowquester I think? Gee, what a run the gfs has been on this past decade and a half.

The lower heights out front are negated by the stronger h5 low and a nice shift of the ridge out West. Encouraging to see that backing into Idaho over the last few runs.

We are a cursed bunch. This time last year the script was flipped, and the Euro was the snowy solution right before its brutal cave. Maybe psu's simulation idea is correct.

That's more of a thermals/snow depiction issue than a synoptics one. It was honestly pretty solid wrt to precip extent.

Why are you still here tracking if we never get any notable events in late February? Why not just cross that out of the calendar each year and take a 1-2 week break?

I thought rain was the likely outcome like you said a while back? Snow to the east of us is like, the opposite of rain.

Wow, climo says snow is the unlikely outcome for the Mid Atlantic? This is a truly shocking and bold call to stick with, I've been here thinking that snow is a sure bet around here.

Definitely feel like we're in the same camp out here, too warm for the initial batch of precip and too far West for the lp jump off the coast. It's okay, we'll cash in with a March 2013 redux in a few short weeks.

Damn so in following that logic, it's okay to drive while drunk because my blood is only composed of 0.09% alcohol?

Gigantic + anomalies over Western North America/Greenland all for a paltry cool anomaly the size of Texas right over us. Woof.

what an odd thing to say.

Snowman weenied this message and hates the idea of this event so much that he had to also click into the thread itself to send a weenie there. You know, to show how much he hates that thread and how he wants nothing to do with it.

This figure is obviously going to moderate quite a bit during the next week, but up to this point DCA has seen its coldest winter since 1996, and BWI its coldest since 1984.

That's the $150,000 question.

So kind of them to play a football game at the Bad Bunny concert

Even worse than last year's? lmao get a grip

Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo as a snow town. The Mid Atlantic in winter is like watching a magnificent fish glide through water. Heck we even managed a snow and sleet storm at 16 degrees when the northern and southern streams phased over Kansas. I-95 is the opposite of cooked. Mountains have even more of a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the Snow Bros Anonymous meeting. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. This is the benefit of being in the MA, when its super cold it's congrats Bob Chill. When its marginal, it's congrats Georgetown. Any other circumstance and I've just got to take my 151k Denny's salary and rent a cabin out in West Virginia.