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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Our last double digit snowfall (for at least DCA and IAD) was the Jan 12-14 2019 storm, which was also known as the Bob Chill storm so maybe he'll bring the good mojo back!
  2. Cobalt
    He's back!!!!! Missed you @Bob Chill
  3. Cobalt
    Probably the last time where these ensembles are useful, but certainly juicing up the mean..
  4. Cobalt
    How does that compare to 12z? Seems like a definite improvement this run, earlier transfer and even slight more negative tilt? Would explain why the backside snow was somewhat improved compared to last run.
  5. Cobalt
    Actually looking better at that panel than 12z if I'm not mistaken. Also seems to be a tad bit more neg tilted? Interesting panels to come up.
  6. Cobalt
    https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I found it here.
  7. Cobalt
    This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward.
  8. Cobalt
    March 2013 too
  9. Cobalt
    ? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing
  10. Cobalt
    The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees
  11. Cobalt
    Sending positive vibes his way here too. He can have a persona on this board, but deep down he's just like all of us. Hope he gets some time to himself and doesn't feel pressured to be active here or on his FB. Also to correct myself I accidentally reacted with the wrong emoji to the message.. just saw and freaked out and corrected it, just in case anyone got the wrong impression and even if nobody saw it.
  12. Cobalt
    ..That they live near Philadelphia? Or is this unrelated lol
  13. Cobalt
    Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think.
  14. Cobalt
    Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior.
  15. Cobalt
    Potentially not his first time on these forums
  16. Cobalt
    Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well
  17. Cobalt
    I think a lot of it depends on the ULL passing through and it's strength and intensity. PSU has mentioned the nuts ratios from a similar Miller B in Feb 9-10 2010, but I think that was cold smoke too with temps in the teens up there.
  18. Cobalt
    The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too.
  19. Cobalt
    It honestly sucks that we'll probably not get a chance to see the 12z Canadian surface maps because it looked strikingly similar, probably would've painted a similar picture wrt snowfall totals. Once the mesos get in range things will get real.
  20. Cobalt
    Its warm out in the sun today. Not sure how that boasts for our snow chances on Sunday.
  21. Cobalt
    Looks super nice. Slight cut back in mean for areas SW of DC but that's because the initial front end thump from the WAA is slightly weaker it seems. Although because of that the costal looks super nice and that aspect of the storm is south (which seems to be a big plus).
  22. Cobalt
    Canadian precip and snow panels completely frozen at hr 24, what does it not want us to see? lol
  23. Cobalt
    Surface panels out on pivotal and suggest yes. Complete pummeling.
  24. Cobalt
    It starts running at ~12:10-12:20 on WxBell I believe, so it'll be a little bit.
  25. Cobalt
    That looks like the long range RGEM? Dont remember the Canadian having 1hr panels like that
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