Cobalt

One of the mets who doesn't post here all that often chimed in back in mid January and mentioned how most of the Canadian airspace was dominated by low pressure systems, which was in part causing a majority of Jan to perform a rug pull. Just checked the EPS and it's an incredible reversal, HP train all the way from the source. Seems like the GEFS isn't as cold and dry as it was showing 1-2 days ago either, looks pretty EPS-like. Fun times ahead!! Also the EPS brings back our constant barrage of 50/50 lows and spins them around from day 8 onwards

No please, it's already shifted Northeast from 12z just by the slightest thought of you returning to NoVA. Think of the weenies dude, gotta take one for the team.

Shut up Chuck

Aaand just like that the Euro has basically diluted the torch that next week's cutter would've provided and instead the temperatures for that 1-2 day period are just slightly above normal, more akin to a typical post-storm warmup. That seasonal trend has been absolutely bonkers since the blocking regime entered the picture.

It's still honestly mind blowing that we're at the very least guaranteed snow from this lead. Haven't had that in ages. Furthermore, I had to take a step back and realize that as long as this doesn't completely fizzle out (less than 4 or 5" I believe), then this will be a top 3 La Nina snowfall in my lifetime. Not sure if that's extremely good or a testament to how pathetic La Nina winters have been so far this century.

Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed.

Upped the 12" probabilities for most of the subforum too. And obviously given the low resolution this won't pick up on the usual areas that get death banded

Jan 12-14 2019. I remember the NAM nailing that the storm would be juicier than progged and spit out some 10-12" totals like 2 runs before onset when the overall forecast was 3-6" and 4-8". 10" totals at both IAD and DCA, and of course cold smoke to boot.

The last WAA success was the Bob Chill storm

Our last double digit snowfall (for at least DCA and IAD) was the Jan 12-14 2019 storm, which was also known as the Bob Chill storm so maybe he'll bring the good mojo back!

He's back!!!!! Missed you @Bob Chill

Probably the last time where these ensembles are useful, but certainly juicing up the mean..

How does that compare to 12z? Seems like a definite improvement this run, earlier transfer and even slight more negative tilt? Would explain why the backside snow was somewhat improved compared to last run.

Actually looking better at that panel than 12z if I'm not mistaken. Also seems to be a tad bit more neg tilted? Interesting panels to come up.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I found it here.

This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward.

March 2013 too

? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing

The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees

Sending positive vibes his way here too. He can have a persona on this board, but deep down he's just like all of us. Hope he gets some time to himself and doesn't feel pressured to be active here or on his FB. Also to correct myself I accidentally reacted with the wrong emoji to the message.. just saw and freaked out and corrected it, just in case anyone got the wrong impression and even if nobody saw it.

..That they live near Philadelphia? Or is this unrelated lol

Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think.

Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior.

Potentially not his first time on these forums

Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well