Cobalt

More stout CAD signal during that time too. The GEFS has way more of a signal for precip during that time, but that’s probably because it has a few more members that follow their Op brother in trying to pump a ridge and having that storm ride that boundary. Seems like that’s been a bit of a bias with the Ops and ensembles this past week, so I’d imagine that the TPV taking its sweet time to descend into the US (and also having it be less consolidated along the western edge) has certainly helped potentially put us on the winning side of the boundary. Exciting times ahead. .

Interesting thing to note is that the Tuesday weak wave that is going North of us has slowed down somewhat on GFS guidance. Could this be why we're seeing lower heights in front of the overrunning event? That was a negative trend for the storm leading up to the 28th event, but maybe not in this scenario if it is leading to the storm being de-amplified

Heh, Euro brings back barney around day 8. Lows nearing 0 for most of the subforum. That's gotta be due to snowpack, but then again any substantial cold we've had as of late has been met by bare grounds, so a solid glacier keeping cold nearby would be a long-awaited sight.

Yellow orb has reared its ugly head. Snow still holding on, so that high QPF content is flexing its strength right now. Also on a less important note the sun-induced glare appeared at the worst possible time to mess up my Tetris game, but that's besides the point lol

I believe the snow depth factors in the melting a decent bit of the DC area will have from now until Wednesday. Kuchera doesn't cover the entire period on WxBell (mainly because it only has a 24 hour parameter and the total Kuchera accumulation factors in snow from 12z-18z today). It's still in line with 10:1 if not a tiny bit higher. Nice to have some cold in place for sure.

2.2" final here. More of a slush bomb than a paste bomb for sure. A couple of hours of SN/borderline SN+ failed to add much to accumulations since ~10:30am. I'd imagine the total would've been a bit higher if it had happened just a few hours earlier. Still a pretty decent storm for all things considered. Three 2" events so far and counting, pretty great winter so far!

You're becoming an adequate poster yourself All jokes aside, I appreciate the kind words, especially from a seasoned poster such as yourself. I've mentioned this before, but being scolded for my posts back in 17-18 really made me rethink my approach to this hobby. It helped that the winter in question was also one with numerous long/medium range busts, so with all of that bundled together, I've been doing my best to let the smarter posters share their info, and to pick up as much as I can from them. Another big aspect was learning to not get too into the digital snow aspect. Following that side alone makes this a depressing hobby. Your climo philosophy has certainly opened my eyes, and I appreciate you taking time out of this crazy year or two to pay a visit to us sick & twisted weather weenies. Posts like yours make this board worthwhile. Finally, to answer @NorthArlington101's question, I'm actually in the college application process right now. I'm likely not majoring in Meteorology, but it's up there with what I'm planning to do. I'd still certainly love to take courses covering those subjects, but time will tell if I want to make it the thing I predominately focus on in my college years.

Might be the best rates of the storm so far. Borderline SN+, this seems to be what it takes to combat marginal temps. 2.0” as of 10:30am but I could honestly see this band dropping another inch on top of what has fallen in the last 30 minutes. Oh, and officially 10” on the year!! .

0.3” in McLean as of 15 minutes ago, looks like snowballs falling out of the sky. All surfaces have caved. .

Yeah, it was awful. Not enough rain for rain enthusiasts such as me and you, so maybe next storm will be our chance to get that sweet downpour.

Right on schedule!

Pulling this from the day 3-7 thread but yeah the EPS looks super promising for that timeframe. I guess it depends on where the boundary sets up but with cold out in front it looks pretty favorable for at least a frozen event somewhere in our area. I'll take this precip mean from that lead and let all the events we have lined up distract until that timeframe, but it's hard not to like the signal for that. Snow mean looks pretty too, but obviously not worth posting this far out lol

Yeah, there's a decent difference compared to the 0z Euro wrt how the PV lobe presses down on the Central/Western US. It's a fair bit more east compared to 0z, and it's also more elongated (which I'm not sure if that had any effects with the ridge or surface depiction for us, but some of the more slightly strung out solutions for that had less of a ridge pump up so I'd imagine it's a positive). Good trends that were pointed out by the 6z EPS too. Would love to see that continue, but the ensembles haven't handled the PV aspect well.. at all.

Judging by the temp/snowfall means during this period, this might not be a bad thing depending on how much Arctic air from the PV lobe filters into our area beforehand. Seems like a fair bit of solutions try to get a storm to bully through some cold air that's already made it's way into the East at around D10-12. Clear CAD signal on the 0z EPS because of that too. Might be what it takes to avoid cold/dry.

DT's first guess map should make a fair bit of people happy.

Hah great idea until a weenie on tilt goes out of their way to make 4 different accounts just to lock someone out

At the very least it seems like we're going to get a decent feed of moisture coming through our area next week, snow, ice, or otherwise. Fun times ahead!

Thanks @MillvilleWx and @HighStakes I appreciate it a lot. A lot of it is due to excellent posters such as yourselves. I've learned a lot in just the past year alone, and it feels like the field of knowledge in meteorology is virtually endless (which is a good thing, of course!) Anywho, the EPS looks like it moved to what the OP was suggesting, but as I felt it would be, it's not as extreme, and looks similar to the GEFS in how the PV lobe is consolidated and also how it's located. Seems like that location strikes the perfect balance because that's an absolute firehose of precipitation trailing up with the overrunning. The PV is also right on it's heels, so anything that falls would stay around. In fact the mean trended colder for that period around 180hrs onwards, so probably some absolutely frigid members in there following the overrunning event.

The GEFS looks a lot better in that regard, in fact it improved compared to 6z. Hoping Euro jumped to one extreme and that the EPS isn't directly in that camp, but even with it's attempts to pump up a massive ridge the output was still pretty wild. Last time we were in a overrunning scenario like this I recall a lot of concern of energy being dumped into the western US but we ended up with suppression depression, doesn't seem like this will go that way though.

Canadian looks to be a pretty substantial hit FWIW

GEFS is in that camp it seems. For the past 2-3 runs it's wanted to hold onto the PV being a fair bit west and pumping up the ridge to the east. Even then it's not as extreme as the op, and quite frankly a blend between the GEFS and the EPS would look pretty sweet wrt the overrunning event. GEFS is on the wet/warmer end (still some nice hits in there), EPS is on the colder and drier side.

Remember that there's 2 NAMs and follow Bob Chill's rule about the best model to follow in times like these but yeah that relaxation to the SE can stop for sure lol. I'll hug the 3k/Ukie/EPS combo for now ig

Day 3-7, February 7 threat, Day 7+. Lot of sevens, I don't blame him.

Uh.. for a day 7 signal.. woof