Cobalt

ICON and GFS look just a tad different at hr 120 lol. Surprised it stays mostly ice with a track like that, I guess it shows the strength of the CAD we're dealing with.

Ptype panels arent out yet on TT, but it looks like it's NW compared to 12z. Gets the immediate area into some precip at 84 but the run ends right there. Comparing hr 84 to 78 on 12z shows how the axis has shifted NW.

RGEM looks better for the 2nd wave FWIW. Seems like that's been the most notable thing from the 18z suite so far.

ICON follows this idea. Overall .2-.4" from wave 2 compared to maybe like .1-.2" for the general DC area from 12z, but less with the overrunning. Still favorable trends for sure. 0.6"+ QPF from DC southwards.

Seems like guidance is moving to this. Wave 1 has trended drier/weaker across the board with wave 2 looking like it has a bit more potential. I was actually thinking about you and how this setup seems awfully familiar to the Chill storm 2 years ago. Obviously not the same look at h500 but a similar progression with the storm starting off with cold smoke overrunning.

Acceptable

DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word

Hard to not like this signal as the pattern reloads. Plenty of moisture and cold on tap

This is a wild signal for cold on the ensembles this far out.. obviously even the individual members can pick up on snowpack induced cold, but considering the smooth mean and how the op/ensembles handle cold compared to the mesos.. bundle tf up during that time, dang.

Surprised nobody posted this. Looks pretty good to me

The RGEM stole them

850s look super iffy, but man that cold air is wedged good. As I said mentioning the GFS' mishandling of how our ridge shapes up, this has been what it's been shifting to for the past two runs. Just need that to continue...

The TPV is substantially different even out to just hr 90 compared to 6z GFS. More sheared/less consolidated through the Midwest. Doesn't give the chance for heights to increase as much after Friday which might set us up better for the weekend event. The GFS is not handing that feature well at all. Seems to be working out in our favor this time.

Ah, I was considering through 18z Friday, but I guess that's out of RGEM range at this point, and it's also not the main overrunning wave. My apologies.

6z EPS juiced up actually. Hard to tell total precip due to contamination from Tuesday, but it seemed like overall 0.7"-0.9" from Wed to Fri. Regardless, it seems like to be on the winning boundary for Wed/Thurs, we need the system to be just deamplified enough. Never easy here lol

The last time the Bucs won the Super Bowl decidedly happened to be during a pretty memorable winter for us In fact the only other NFC South team to win also was during a great wintry stretch, the Saints in Feb 2010. I remember having to drive to my grandparents' house to watch the game because we didn't have power.

More stout CAD signal during that time too. The GEFS has way more of a signal for precip during that time, but that’s probably because it has a few more members that follow their Op brother in trying to pump a ridge and having that storm ride that boundary. Seems like that’s been a bit of a bias with the Ops and ensembles this past week, so I’d imagine that the TPV taking its sweet time to descend into the US (and also having it be less consolidated along the western edge) has certainly helped potentially put us on the winning side of the boundary. Exciting times ahead. .

Interesting thing to note is that the Tuesday weak wave that is going North of us has slowed down somewhat on GFS guidance. Could this be why we're seeing lower heights in front of the overrunning event? That was a negative trend for the storm leading up to the 28th event, but maybe not in this scenario if it is leading to the storm being de-amplified

Heh, Euro brings back barney around day 8. Lows nearing 0 for most of the subforum. That's gotta be due to snowpack, but then again any substantial cold we've had as of late has been met by bare grounds, so a solid glacier keeping cold nearby would be a long-awaited sight.

Yellow orb has reared its ugly head. Snow still holding on, so that high QPF content is flexing its strength right now. Also on a less important note the sun-induced glare appeared at the worst possible time to mess up my Tetris game, but that's besides the point lol

I believe the snow depth factors in the melting a decent bit of the DC area will have from now until Wednesday. Kuchera doesn't cover the entire period on WxBell (mainly because it only has a 24 hour parameter and the total Kuchera accumulation factors in snow from 12z-18z today). It's still in line with 10:1 if not a tiny bit higher. Nice to have some cold in place for sure.

2.2" final here. More of a slush bomb than a paste bomb for sure. A couple of hours of SN/borderline SN+ failed to add much to accumulations since ~10:30am. I'd imagine the total would've been a bit higher if it had happened just a few hours earlier. Still a pretty decent storm for all things considered. Three 2" events so far and counting, pretty great winter so far!

You're becoming an adequate poster yourself All jokes aside, I appreciate the kind words, especially from a seasoned poster such as yourself. I've mentioned this before, but being scolded for my posts back in 17-18 really made me rethink my approach to this hobby. It helped that the winter in question was also one with numerous long/medium range busts, so with all of that bundled together, I've been doing my best to let the smarter posters share their info, and to pick up as much as I can from them. Another big aspect was learning to not get too into the digital snow aspect. Following that side alone makes this a depressing hobby. Your climo philosophy has certainly opened my eyes, and I appreciate you taking time out of this crazy year or two to pay a visit to us sick & twisted weather weenies. Posts like yours make this board worthwhile. Finally, to answer @NorthArlington101's question, I'm actually in the college application process right now. I'm likely not majoring in Meteorology, but it's up there with what I'm planning to do. I'd still certainly love to take courses covering those subjects, but time will tell if I want to make it the thing I predominately focus on in my college years.

Might be the best rates of the storm so far. Borderline SN+, this seems to be what it takes to combat marginal temps. 2.0” as of 10:30am but I could honestly see this band dropping another inch on top of what has fallen in the last 30 minutes. Oh, and officially 10” on the year!! .

0.3” in McLean as of 15 minutes ago, looks like snowballs falling out of the sky. All surfaces have caved. .