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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
  2. Cobalt
    RGEM made a pretty substantial shift as well
  3. Cobalt
    Hey friends, I've been in a coma since January 23rd, 2021, and just woke up. I'm curious, did the storm depicted on the GFS work out? It seemed like a really huge bomb! I don't think it had much consensus, but the model seemed insistent on developing a storm that bombed out over the mouth of the Potomac.
  4. Cobalt
    What a time to be living in the ocean
  5. Cobalt
    One of the first cases of me understanding model bias was when I was told that the NAVGEM had an apparent "suppression" bias. This was back in 2017, but in every single instance where an image of the model has been posted, the storm is depicted more AMPED than other guidance. Is this me misremembering, or is this not a continuous occurrence?
  6. Cobalt
    Still waiting for his "1996" pattern from this time one year ago to come to fruition.
  7. Cobalt
    I like seeing that initial D5 system trending towards scooting out of here faster, it allows confluence to build ahead of that intriguing system..
  8. Cobalt
    Obviously it's entering LR territory, but 0z GFS drops a 1045hp into the Great Plains through hr 180.. some serious cold entering the central tier of the country after that D8 storm system. Seeds of change?
  9. Cobalt
    The Euro weeklies are.. not exactly the most enticing. Somewhat serviceable for the first week of January I suppose, but coupled with the incredibly persistent -PNA, it looks like the waning neg NAO results in the SE ridge really flexing its muscles after that point. Looks like a less favorable Atlantic has been the trend for the past few days in the LR.
  10. Cobalt
    Nice to see that pretty stout 50/50 signal too..
  11. Cobalt
    Pretty decent agreement among the Canadian, GFS, and Euro ensembles for the timeframe into very early Jan. Much like with the fabled D10-15 blocking pattern presented on the models in early Jan of last year, it seems like we'll have to wait a while for those effects to show up in the medium range, only this time we're looking at that pattern shift 2 weeks earlier.
  12. Cobalt
  13. Cobalt
    RGEM holds steady
  14. Cobalt
    For a time.. that'd be cool, and we'd be chilling. Eventually though, we'd have to face the cold hard facts.
  15. Cobalt
    I recall you saying that you hadn't gone a winter without a warning level snowfall since 01-02 and that you were overdue..
  16. Cobalt
    Reaper watch > winter storm watch
  17. Cobalt
    18z agrees
  18. Cobalt
    If anyone had BWI for 11/4, they would've.. guest correctly
  19. Cobalt
    The Braves winning the World Series for the first time since October 1995 gives us a clear top analog for this upcoming winter #itshappening
  20. Cobalt
    It's all fun and games until DT comes in and gets in an all-out brawl with Ji
  21. Cobalt
    The mesos have been pretty bearish about sub-freezing cold at the surface tonight, but suggest tomorrow night might have a better chance
  22. Cobalt
    Yeah, I'm not too familiar, how would moderation/verification go for those calls? It would be a shame if someone joined pretending to be someone else, only to end up being deliberately disruptful.
  23. Cobalt
    This is entirely true, Zoom does seem like the best option.
  24. Cobalt
    Discord is always an option, as it has built in video calls, but it might be a bit tougher to set up/facilitate.
  25. Cobalt
    the ICON is insistent that we get some cold rain from the #snoreaster
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