SnowLover22

There is no strong inversion on this sounding near DC as per the 00z NAM as seen below. This should allow for there to be a greater chance of the strong winds at 850mb to be able to mix down. The squall line as predicted by the NAM should further help to mix down the winds from the LLJ.

The second image below shows the predicted  850mb winds

Lastly, there is PVA present so I am by no means in expert but that could be a source to lift up the air parcels absent CAPE which is maybe why the NAM is forecasting a squall line?

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite.

I'm sure if Ji lived in Watertown, NY he would still find some reason to complain. 

Could easily go away next run but the euro shows potential around New Years as have other models to varying degrees. 

3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

That arrow should be more ENE but you get the idea. 

System stays weaker this run because the jet-streak upstream is weaker and there is not as much curvature. 

6z

12z

3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Day 10 gfs is actually a pretty good setup. It holding is another matter though.

That arrow should be more ENE but you get the idea. 

Day 10 gfs is actually a pretty good setup. It holding is another matter though.

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Prior to the flip to sleet, I measured 6" of fluff here in Warminster. I cleared the measuring board and woke to an additional 2.75" of fresh snow/sleet on the board Does that count as a grand total of 8.75" then? Just trying to be accurate. 

I can tell you that as a trained spotter it also matters how often you clean the board. I believe it should be every 6 hours you clean it once but yeah clearing it before the sleet was a good idea. That should count yes. 

Starting to sleet again it seems in bursts

Still mostly snow but sleet line has passed Wilmington. I am 5 miles north of there. It is only a matter of time. 

3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Pics from 3:30 pm, still coming down nicely, got some fatties in there now. Still 29F.

How much you got?. I measured around 5 inches just now. An impressive 1.5 inches within the past 45 min.

1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

Yeah, I've been watching it...hoping it takes it's sweet time. HRRR shows it taking till 6 pm, NAMS till about 4 pm. Meanwhile I'm enjoying the heck out of it! Peeps up north are gonna get blasted...

 

 

My benchmark is 5 inches of snow. And then hopefully an inch of sleet on top of that to  preserve our snow cover.  I am hoping the incredible heavy rates slow down the sleet line. 

@KamuSnow I think we change to sleet soon. Only 10-15 miles to our south.... ugh

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

I've been having some good rates but I think this "pink" is the heavy stuff what the MA forum is talking about...

25F

 

 

I am currently in the pink. It is epic man!

this hobby sucks. Sleepless nights  for no reason. The stress isn't worth it

So should I take a drive up I-476 N tomorrow just so I do not miss this lol. It is so tempting.

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It sure does, sleet like Russian tank

 

 

the cool thing is 3 inches of sleet will last a really long time, I would argue it would last longer than 1 foot of snow. All that compact ice will not go away easily. Go big or go home right. If we are going to get sleet might as well get as much sleet as possible. Still would be cool.

40 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

To brighten the mood check day 7 gfs. Not bad with that energy coming down from the northwest. I can’t even fathom tracking another event right now though lol

never again will I start tracking until inside of 72 hours..... hell who am I kidding I always fall for it

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

DT's last call is gonna be 3 lol

 

does sleet accumulation count for winter season snow total lol

I think philly gets 3 inches..... of

sleet.

8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It’s total unsupported crap. CMC is well north 00z

agreed if gfs is right major coup.....

it truly is amusing seeing the NE forum melting down over the gfs. 

Added Bonus gfs screws over NYC and New England. Best news all day.

87, DC absolutely destroyed!

the push from the high pressure is considerably stronger guys. This should be good.