SnowLover22

You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).

Credit to @brooklynwx99 A visual representing the change in that chart. SSTA Change

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity. If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.

Driving to the airport at 3 am this morning….. at times driving was very hazardous less than 100 feet visibility in front of me at times… so yes it was very thick

Seems like such an outlier from just the 12z run. Initialization error? Seems odd

Do you consider post-season upgrades? Unlikely event Oscar gets upgraded to cat 3 months later

With a 70knot wind…. They missed the center

MPI for where Milton is, is around 890-900mb.

Source?

I’ll await for confirmation from NWS. They will send out a climate report soon.

Do you have a link to that?

It didn’t unless there is something I am missing.

It is only just hitting 100, possible but not likely. Guessing it maxes at 101

It probably already is, multiple different data points support cat 5. Awaiting for NHC confirmation

High rainfall rate, it could be an error but perhaps not “The SFMR performance is highly reliable at hurricane-force wind speeds, but accuracy is found to degrade at weaker wind speeds, particularly in heavy precipitation. Specifically, a significant overestimation of surface wind speeds is found in these conditions, suggesting inaccurate accounting for the impact of rain on the measured microwave brightness temperature.” https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atot/31/11/jtech-d-14-00028_1.xml