DownpourDave

I personally think 8-12 is a good guess along with a wintery mix with maybe a flip back to snow at the end. If it verified a little colder aloft, those higher totals that the models are spitting are very well might verify.

RGEM shows a Waterville Valley Jackpot. I might decide to ski Cannon on Sunday.

Lourdes did not leave, she was promoted to Provost. If you want I can say “someone from x class year” says hello if you’re not comfortable giving your name but are comfortable sharing what class year you were. Do you know Scott Reynolds who works at the CWSU in Nashua, NH? He teaches at Plymouth. I mention him because he’s one of my favorite professors there, him along with Dr. Sam Miller.

Can anyone guess when the precip started?

Anything specific I should say so that they know who the “hello” is from? I am guessing you were before Prof. Eric Kelsey’s time.

Pasty 1-2 inches here near Plymouth. Can confirm 93 is not great.

Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. This is probably a more realistic map.

Respectfully, you are wrong. CAD has a tendency of being under estimated by the models.

Surprised no one mentioned that the whites look to do well this weekend. CAD setup suggested by many of the models. You might even get some snow dendrite this weekend. At the very least the ski resorts like Waterville Valley and Cannon will replenish some of what they lost. Thermal profiles suggests the snow will be of the heavy wet variety so definitely will not be skiing on powder on Monday.

@NorthArlington101 pm please not sure if you got a notification for it

Also, The historic 09-10 winter, 2016 one storm wonder, and the winters you mentioned all had neutral to positive PDO at times. That is one of the main differences between 09-10 and now (the PDO). We do not actually know if that historic winter would have worked with a strongly negative PDO. @psuhoffman

in the grand scheme of things, 2016 was not that long ago. Have we warmed that much since 2016/reached a tipping point? Maybe the Tonga eruption was a factor in having us go past the tipping point?

maybe this is a dumb question, was the max storage increased to 50 mb recently?

Could it be that the SSW was a reflection type so it ruined the blocking pattern? Pulled directly from the paper Cite: Kodera et al, 2015 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023359 What are your thoughts? Just thought I would try and search for an answer looking at past research. Edit: There is obviously a lot to this paper but what I got was that not all SSWs necessarily lead to a blocking pattern (-NAO/-AO)

I might decide to do my thesis on it. Any suggestions for a title? Half kidding but I really might.

Have any of the mets here done Pathways? Going to go for it with several Student Trainee Positions opening up in Meteorology(https://www.usajobs.gov/Search/Results?j=1399). I know they accept undergraduates as well but I am hopeful I have a shot as a graduate student.

Copied from a post I made on a different site: Okay I identified these two areas as important. The shortwave over BC, and the TPV. You want the TPV further east and that shortwave a little more amplified and orientated more North to South. In terms of the shortwave over BC the 12z euro is an improvement over the 6z gfs but not as good as the 12z gfs. The reason why the 12z euro looks bad is because of the less favorable TPV position. I will be paying close attention to the position of the TPV over the next few runs as well as seeing how much that vort coming in from the Pacific is able to amplify and have a more favorable orientation

@psuhoffman I see almost nothing wrong with this map. PNA in a perfect spot, semblance of a 50/50, almost as good as a “look” can get. Even has that trough over Alaska which you typically see before a big snowstorm for the EC.

With a -3 or -4 sigma NAO don’t you need a -PNA anyways, like a +PNA wouldn’t work, again long range and analyzing teles are not my strong suite.

Obviously it’s past the deadline but I might post a late entry just for fun later today.

You know…. sometimes I forget you don’t have a degree in this stuff, you really know your shit. My degreed PhD Research Advisor could learn a thing or two about long range forecasting(teleconnections in particular) and frankly, so can I. I am much better at short range forecasting, looking at different weather maps(upper level charts, surface analysis maps), and forecast what will happen in 1-3 days. Love using bufkit and MOS which are obviously much better for short range forecasting.

Have you actually done your own research/collect data to back that up? That there is a small correlation?

You’re right that you can, my point is it is harder. The answer is a bit complicated. Part of the answer is in the physical process of rain and snow formation and how fast they fall. Rain forms through liquid droplets coalescing in the atmosphere creating larger and heavier droplets that can fall quicker under the force of gravity Snowflakes form when water vapor turns directly into ice crystals. Snowflakes form at a slower rate than rain droplets and obviously the structure is different with air pockets within the snow flake causing them to be lighter than rain drops. Thus, Rain can physically fall at a faster rate than snow and rain forms at a faster rate. This explains it better. https://geo.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Geography_(Physical)/The_Physical_Environment_(Ritter)/07%3A_Atmospheric_Moisture/7.04%3A_Clouds_and_Precipitation/7.4.03%3A_Precipitation_Process Bergeron Process vs Warm-Rain Process Now assuming that one is dealing with the Bergeron Process for areas that get rain and areas that get snow, rain will still fall at a faster rate due to structure differences between a snow flake vs rain drop.

No need to imagine, the way thermodynamics work, it wouldn’t be that QPF if it were snow. It is why you can get 3 inches of rain per hour but not 30 inches of snow per hour. It doesn’t work like that.