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DownpourDave

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by DownpourDave

  1. DownpourDave
    TSPL, wow
  2. DownpourDave
    Not that it matters at all at this point but the PDO is now positive albeit barely
  3. DownpourDave
  4. DownpourDave
  5. DownpourDave
    I am back. Touch and go for a hot minute, Fever peaked at 103 but avoided the hospital(mostly because ambulance prices are insane).
  6. DownpourDave
    Be careful out there. Tested positive for FLU A. Hit me like a ton of bricks. According to CdC high prevalence in New England.
  7. DownpourDave
    I was gonna say, can’t be normal to have the PDO flip like this in a Nina is it? Anyways that Nino like flow in the NPac looks to continue according to the models. Also regardless of the cause, the PDO flipping like this can’t be a bad thing.
  8. DownpourDave
    Looking at the models and what is forecast in the Pacific, I would not be shocked to see this rise continue and for the PDO to outright flip to positive.
  9. DownpourDave
    The word was “mint”
  10. DownpourDave
    I was hoping we get there by Jan 1st so this is better than I expected. I know PSU said getting above that number puts the better analogs in play.
  11. DownpourDave
    Lets get this at -1.00 by January 1st
  12. DownpourDave
    You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).
  13. DownpourDave
    Credit to @brooklynwx99 A visual representing the change in that chart. SSTA Change
  14. DownpourDave
    PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity. If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.
  15. DownpourDave
    Driving to the airport at 3 am this morning….. at times driving was very hazardous less than 100 feet visibility in front of me at times… so yes it was very thick
  16. DownpourDave
    Seems like such an outlier from just the 12z run. Initialization error? Seems odd
  17. DownpourDave
    Do you consider post-season upgrades? Unlikely event Oscar gets upgraded to cat 3 months later
  18. DownpourDave
    With a 70knot wind…. They missed the center
  19. DownpourDave
    MPI for where Milton is, is around 890-900mb.
  20. DownpourDave
    Source?
  21. DownpourDave
    I’ll await for confirmation from NWS. They will send out a climate report soon.
  22. DownpourDave
    Do you have a link to that?
  23. DownpourDave
    It didn’t unless there is something I am missing.
  24. DownpourDave
    It is only just hitting 100, possible but not likely. Guessing it maxes at 101
  25. DownpourDave
    It probably already is, multiple different data points support cat 5. Awaiting for NHC confirmation
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