DownpourDave

I am back. Touch and go for a hot minute, Fever peaked at 103 but avoided the hospital(mostly because ambulance prices are insane).

Be careful out there. Tested positive for FLU A. Hit me like a ton of bricks. According to CdC high prevalence in New England.

I was gonna say, can’t be normal to have the PDO flip like this in a Nina is it? Anyways that Nino like flow in the NPac looks to continue according to the models. Also regardless of the cause, the PDO flipping like this can’t be a bad thing.

Looking at the models and what is forecast in the Pacific, I would not be shocked to see this rise continue and for the PDO to outright flip to positive.

The word was “mint”

I was hoping we get there by Jan 1st so this is better than I expected. I know PSU said getting above that number puts the better analogs in play.

Lets get this at -1.00 by January 1st

You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).

Credit to @brooklynwx99 A visual representing the change in that chart. SSTA Change

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity. If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.

Driving to the airport at 3 am this morning….. at times driving was very hazardous less than 100 feet visibility in front of me at times… so yes it was very thick

Seems like such an outlier from just the 12z run. Initialization error? Seems odd

Do you consider post-season upgrades? Unlikely event Oscar gets upgraded to cat 3 months later

With a 70knot wind…. They missed the center

MPI for where Milton is, is around 890-900mb.

Source?

I’ll await for confirmation from NWS. They will send out a climate report soon.

Do you have a link to that?

It didn’t unless there is something I am missing.

It is only just hitting 100, possible but not likely. Guessing it maxes at 101

It probably already is, multiple different data points support cat 5. Awaiting for NHC confirmation

High rainfall rate, it could be an error but perhaps not “The SFMR performance is highly reliable at hurricane-force wind speeds, but accuracy is found to degrade at weaker wind speeds, particularly in heavy precipitation. Specifically, a significant overestimation of surface wind speeds is found in these conditions, suggesting inaccurate accounting for the impact of rain on the measured microwave brightness temperature.” https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atot/31/11/jtech-d-14-00028_1.xml

I heard Solomons or near there got a waterspout but yet to see and photos or videos of it. Kind of surprising considering there should be plenty of people down there.