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RDRY

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Everything posted by RDRY

  1. RDRY
    You don't see Chaplin peeking behind the house?
  2. RDRY
    You know it's a powerhouse high when a storm gets this close to the south shore of LI and the convective precip is still frozen.
  3. RDRY
    Seriously dry air here in western Mass. This is probably going to come in like a wall.
  4. RDRY
    Yay. The ski resorts here must be giddy. With no big warm-up in the forecast, they should be up and running.
  5. RDRY
    Oops. Yell away!
  6. RDRY
    Confirmed tornado heading for Tampa airport. Yikes!
  7. RDRY
    Hard to see this not being the season's best event -- gets almost everyone.
  8. RDRY
    The high-res'es like to jump around the low signature. Precip field looks similar to 18z, though definitely a smidge south which could really help the city.
  9. RDRY
    NYC resident hiding in the Berks. Looks like a win-win for this one.
  10. RDRY
    Euro might be the closest?
  11. RDRY
    I'm in the Berks for this one.
  12. RDRY
    GFS way south, NAM way north and everything in between -- New York City is always sitting pretty.
  13. RDRY
    Northeast winter storm forecasting is just brutal. What a humbling profession.
  14. RDRY
    Banding at 60 not as robust for them.
  15. RDRY
    Lost maybe a few hours of that norlun feature from 18z, which is a must for higher totals in western MA.
  16. RDRY
    RGEM is an absurd weather model -- it had its 15 minutes of fame several winters back, and now resides in Snookyville. This low is not driving heavy precip halfway through Vermont and New Hampshire.
  17. RDRY
    I wonder if it would be preferable to have super-accurate forecast models (say, 5-day forecasts being as reliable as current 1-day forecasts). Definitely be a lot fewer posts here.
  18. RDRY
    Heh. Baby steps on the GFS. That's just how it rolls.
  19. RDRY
    Precip hangs on several hours longer on the 12k compared to 6z -- almost looks like a norlun trough.
  20. RDRY
    On 12/11/2020 at 11:19 PM, RDRY said: Upper levels just don't support this hitting north of pike. The 500 MB trough orientation is more east-west than north-south.
  21. RDRY
    The para is the upgraded GFS? Seems very erratic.
  22. RDRY
    Of the 4 main globals, I assume Euro verification is still #1. Which one is 2nd?
  23. RDRY
    Not surprised. GFS does this -- goes off on its own and holds for several runs. It's always possible it has the better read on this storm, but it's not likely. The ICON in its corner like Jack the Ripper as the cutman.
  24. RDRY
    Nitpicking the end of a 12k NAM run, but it's weird that the low doesn't deepen (996) between 78 and 84 hours.
  25. RDRY
    Classic GFS at this range. It goes rogue and holds its solution for several runs before joining the party.
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