On 12/11/2020 at 11:19 PM, RDRY said:
Upper levels just don't support this hitting north of pike. The 500 MB trough orientation is more east-west than north-south.
Not surprised. GFS does this -- goes off on its own and holds for several runs. It's always possible it has the better read on this storm, but it's not likely. The ICON in its corner like Jack the Ripper as the cutman.
Low is forced east -- even a tic east-southeast -- from southern New Jersey, suppressing the heaviest banding south of western Mass. That high means business.