MountainGeek

Wouldn't be the first time that HP and blocking are overdone at this range and end up easing off as we get closer in time.

Yup although the NAM looks like it hangs on a few more hrs than the GFS. My understanding is that the known GFS cold bias mostly affects the med and long range, so maybe the NAM will be better at sniffing out the cold......hug the model that gives you what you want!

Could be just noise, but looks like we lose the 850s a smidge earlier on the 18z GFS.

Wouldn't we be better off strip-mining between Pittsburgh/Cumberland/Chambersburg and putting in another great lake? Keep the CAD when needed, plus we get legit lake-effect going on with those cold dry NW winds that we do so well around here. Agree that it's going to come down to the column and how long we can hang on.....do you think timing may help out as well? If we could get an early onset with a good juicy slug going before the sun hits that can't be a bad thing.

Check the accumulated positive snow depth change.....much less impressive. Verbatim most of the "snow" would be sleet or FZR....but IMO any form of frozen slop/mix is more interesting than just plain rain. Gotta hope we can keep "trending" colder as we get closer....

There's always extrapolation of the 3K NAM.....

Better than our chance of hitting the Dec 22 "storm".....I like it that we're getting something reasonably possible within the 72 hr window, and trends seem to be going the right way for once. It's pretty much a lock that it's going to get washed away regardless, so expectations can't be all that high.

You're always welcome up here on the mountain.

Maybe we can back into a light/modest event in under 72 hrs.....wouldn't be the first time. IIRC the "best" event of last winter for DC proper didn't look all that great right up until game time. Let's take a ride on the Baby Bump Thump Train!

Not good enough for @Ji...you trying to convince him to jump early?

Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence.

Personally I hope all of the cars will be making contact with the ground.... I think we are both in a good spot to hopefully get an inch or so at minimum, models looking decent to achieve that bar.

Didn't we have a similar situation in 13-14 where people would fret over a crappy pattern in the LR and just around the corner, but the bad looks frequently fell apart once we got closer in time? Last year was the inverse, where the good looks stayed 10-15 days out most of the winter. Not saying this year will play out the same, just interesting.....

Not to mention that it seems equally likely that the strat can actually HURT us instead of helping - if I'm understanding him correctly, @Isotherm tags last year's much-anticipated SSW event as significantly contributing to the MJO hanging out in warm phases. https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/3 Along that vein, I actually think this winter was too UNSTABLE in a number of ways. The MJO simply did not cease: constant propagation from amplified phase to phase, obviating any stable PNA or cold pattern from becoming locked in, compared to winters in which we stabilize in the colder MJO Nino phases. The negative 50mb QBO and thereafter the massive SSW only aided further to augment the incessant MJO signal.

Ummm...weather will do what weather wants to do? Given the GFS cold bias I'd like to see a couple other models get on board pretty soon.....otherwise cold rain is the better bet.

I'm going with "winter showing its hand" as to the the base state and storm track....this is just a pre-season warmup for the main show!

Why?

Yeah I really would like to know whether Nov is merely a "head fake" before we torch through half our prime climo in Dec/Jan, or a glimpse into perhaps the base state setting up for winter. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks......

IMO seeing coastals pop up is a good thing regardless since it means there's a chance this winter pattern might feature at least some favorable periods. All for a nasty -EPO and -NAO as long as it's not overdone to the point where we're getting suppression. I'll be thrilled to see our SE friends cash in on Miller A's that start in AL as long as they eventually get around to mauling us. But I'll take a pass on smoking cold cirrus while watching Atlanta get hammered by a southern slider.

Wow -- incredible amount of information and very informative with lots of detail and explanation as to what's going on. I found this section re NAO prediction fascinating -- and quite an interesting history lesson re the contributions of @UniversesBelowNormal: Utilizing North Atlantic SSTs During Summer as an NAO Predictor for Cold Season Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck", now known as "UniversesBelowNormal", devised a formula over a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. This methodology is strongly endorsed as one of the more accurate predictors available for the mean state of the winter NAO. In fact, had Eastern Mass Weather considered it last season, the outlook would have been much more successful. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that is so often referenced. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was the 7th warmest). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2018-19: +NAO signal/+NAO winter....Verified 2017-18: Strong -NAO signal/+NAO Winter....Failure to Verify 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Verified 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Verified 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Verified 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Null 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Verified 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Verified 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Verified 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Verified 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified In fact, the predictor has now verified 10 times, failed 3 times and predicted a neutral ENSO once. The value of this predictor as a forecasting tool has proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in in the opinion of this writer. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box in warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is indicative of a moderately robust -NAO, at -.55 to -.60, as per the north atlantic SSTS between May and September:

Also I like seeing as much early cold as we can over the GL region.....the quicker we can get the lakes cooled down and partially frozen, the less moderating effect they have on the cold shots coming down from Canada. Since so many of our events have at least a portion of the subforum flirting with the freezing line, every degree matters.

Yeah I never count March out -- it can be a lot of fun sometimes if things line up just right. In a couple of the "bad" years, our best storm of the season was mid or late-March. It will be interesting to see if there's any similarity to 2009 this time around, one obvious difference is the Oct cold in 2009 seemed much more widespread and this year it was cold west/warm east.

November is the new January!

Thanks -- don't forget to mix in general atmospheric chaos/butterfly effect, a VERY short recorded data timespan (relative to all of past history).....trying to predict longer term and seasonal weather has lot of parallels to picking numbers or trying to "game" a slot machine. Quite a few of the folks who participate in this forum enjoy hitting the casino as well...I don't think that's a coincidence. And the nice thing about weather is when it pulls the rug out from under you, you only suffer a hit to your pride and not your pocketbook.

Depends on the lag duration....on the positive side: solar was very low last year as well so if there's, say, a 1 year lag, we're getting any benefits now and next winter might get even more "help" in that area. If there's not a lag, then we're getting any benefits as we go in real time. All good, right? But remember it's never only one factor -- the ultimate winter outcome is a combination of dozens of known factors (and maybe even more that we still don't fully understand yet). And of course the possible links between low solar, HL blocking, colder winters, etc are still being explored, so no guarantees.