MountainGeek

Great writeup. This graphic supports your contention that it's really not the sun angle melting the snow while it is forming or ground temps preventing accumulation as much as increased warmth in the lower levels that reduces our snow chances in March. Note how much snow falls in March in areas at the same or even LOWER latitude than we are. The difference is elevation, which tends to offset the lower level warmth issues.

It's not gonna stick around for weeks in March no matter how much we get. I've seen 14" melt within 24 hrs in late March.

Agreed -- 0.5" here, everything covered except pavement. Getting dangerously close to beating the 6-8" we didn't get last weekend. 32/31.

What do you think are the main drivers of nina suckage in our area? I'm thinking: 1) Tend to be more NS dominant, which means it's a lot harder to get something to dig enough to get under us. Miller B's like to run just north of us or jump over us and clobber NE. And we don't tend to get Miller A's or juiced up overrunning from the south without decent STJ. 2) Lack of consistent STJ also means we have problems getting enough chances for decent precip timing up with cold shots. If NS does get us, it's more light clipper-type deals. Overall it seems that a solid consistent STJ keeping precip chances aimed in our general direction is a key player in helping us have enough opportunities to score decently in a given winter. The obvious exception is a super-nino, which tends to cause temp problems unless we can get lucky with transient cold/blocking and then we get our HECS (eg 2016).

Picking up -- legit moderate snow now.

But how heavy is it?

Now up to moderate snow with occasional missiles mixed in - all we need is 1" here to beat last weekend's epic bust.

I can confirm wxtrix report - legit light snow here, dime size flakes. 32/24

Absolutely ripping heavy fog here --- best rates of the day! I've never seen fog come down so hard.....

Yeah this one was really weird -- I can't remember the last time Charles Town did better than we did. Maybe the angle of the precip or the BR ended up as one of the main battleground areas with the warm nose bleeding through just enough west to ruin the event for us. Normally your reports are a pretty good benchmark for what's incoming our way during events since I'm on the ridge just about due east of you. This time I was thinking you might have had one too many beers when you were posting obs.... Kids are going to be devastated to wake up tomorrow to a pile of slop after being told 4-8".

Huge bust so far out here as well --- all we got was snow TV all morning, then sleet/rain for hours with occasional bursts of heavy snow.....nothing but an icy crust on the ground. I'm starting to think the 1"/hr rates from 3PM-8PM might not be happening after all..... That warm nose was brutal and deadly. Been a long time since we've had one bust this bad out here during the actual event -- LWX had us in WSW for 4-8", models showed 6-10" with none having less than 4".

dumping pretty good here, dime flakes, grass caved 33/31

Moderate steady snow, but flakes have been small so far. 33/27.

First flakes here -- light snow 34/26

35/26

Paging @EastCoast NPZ........I don't wanna know what kind/how many cute baby animals he sacrificed, but looks like he figured out how to get the bullseye right over his house. Under 10 days right?

31 with light sleet/occasional cat paws/heavy mist/fog/freezing rain/crusty ice/sloppy glacier Snowpack holding on surprisingly well, still an inch or so but we better flip to snow soon.

We can use a good March beatdown. Looks like GFS is thinking about giving us a little encore on March 9/10.

Admit it -- you took the snow map for Jan 2016 and photoshopped the header for March 5.

Still off-and-on light flakes here; full rippage has not yet commenced. Hoping we get a solid beatdown out here! Now that we have Chill back, to ensure a proper forum-wide overperformance, I hereby invoke the power of the: THE FEBRUARY “SUPER SNOW” MOON February’s full Moon peaks on Tuesday morning, February 19 but will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. It will also be a so-called “supermoon,” which means the Moon is at its closest point in its orbit to Earth. In fact, the February’s full Moon is the nearest, largest, and brightest full Moon of the year! Technically, it’s the second of three supermoons to occur in 2019 (January, February, March).

First flakes! Blue Ridge mtns between Hillsboro and Berryville. #notvirga

34/9 - Blue Ridge mtns between Hillsboro and Berryville

Thanks -- I had the right one but.....cache

LWX trimming totals north and west.... EDIT and ninja'd by Eskimo Joe

Looks like it will be a hot snow, always AO+ with big -SOI