MountainGeek

32/24 -- nice cloud cover, awaiting meatballs

25/19 -- clouds starting to thicken up nicely.

Tasty -- and maybe leaving room for some 0.5 or 0.6 lollies before game time. Paused at 30/18 for the moment, wind kicked up to 8-10 mph for a bit.

30/18

33/17. Temp dropping quickly here as well.

35/17 after a high of 48

I think you're missing the caveat that PSU was talking about the -NAO being mandatory to counteract the -PNA and huge central PAC ridge if they remained locked in place. However, get the pig ridge out of the way and then there are other paths to success that don't mandate a -NAO.

Everyone want to keep rolling with obs in this thread or start another around game time? I'm liking my luck so far, first thread I've created and I started it with the dumbest title ever, which seems to be working out OK for now.

Watch central TN.

Every bit earlier that we can start will help cap the daytime temp rise and take better advantage of the overnight ground temps....and for the coastal plain a good solid thump (even if short-lived) is probably the best shot at getting more than snow TV.

The point was to try some reverse psychology on the snow gods....if you can't find it, maybe they can't either. Although I suppose I could change it to "Cleveland Park PUMMELED".....

Hey I'm trying to keep it positive here....and besides, NAM at range is never wrong!

A nice NAM'ing for @C.A.P.E......even the more realistic "positive snow depth" version tosses a bone....

Can you properly encode your post on this storm from the LR thread and re-post here? That should buy you some redemption points.....

I know, we're cursed. Maybe they are going to give it a little more time -- this was around 5AM. OTOH, maybe they are betting on a phased stronger storm cutting west.....

Paging @showmethesnow. The squirrel has been ambushed by the nut. I REPEAT, THE SQUIRREL HAS BEEN AMBUSHED BY THE NUT!

Done.

Let's do this! Things are trending the right way, and @showmethesnow hasn't spoken in cleartext about this one so we're safe at the moment. If you ignore the soundings, this looks great!

For those who are interested, some good background from the ECMWF. Also notable is the fact that winter forecasts tend to be more reliable due to longer wavelengths. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/153/meteorology/25-years-ensemble-forecasting-ecmwf Evolution of ensemble forecast quality Thanks to model upgrades, improvements in the data assimilation system, the use of more observations, and the ENS configuration changes discussed above, the ENS performance has increased substantially during the past 25 years. Figure 7 Time evolution, from 1 January 1995 to today, of the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) of ENS forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height over the northern hemisphere, for lead times of 24 hours, 72 hours, 120 hours, 168 hours and 240 hours. Forecasts are verified against operational analyses. The more or less regular pattern of peaks and troughs in each line stems from differences in predictability related to the seasons: winter weather tends to be more predictable than summer weather.

Can you imagine a world with guaranteed backyard Jebwalks every time the temp drops below 29F? You even get to choose whether you want falling snow during the Jebwalk or just want to admire all the snow that "fell" overnight in the ripping-fatties-all-night-long-personal-blizzard.

Weenies take heart! A White Christmas is NEVER out of reach: https://www.snowathome.com/ The SNOWatHOME™ web site is for anyone who is interested in home snow making for any reason. SNOWatHOME has been in business nearly 20 years! We have done extensive research on making man made snow and designing home snow machines that can produce a blizzard of snow just like the snow makers at ski resorts. • You live in a area that occasionally has freezing temperatures but rarely has natural snowfall. • Create your own snowboard and ski terrain park! • Guarantee a White Christmas, home decorating like never before! • Businesses, attract holiday customers and free media attention! • Scientific testing. • Backyard sliding and skiing hill, be the envy of the neighborhood! • School science project, win best of show! • Or just for fun, the list goes on. • Not cold enough to make snow? Try our Blizzard Wizard Special Effects snowmakers for year round indoor and outdoor fun! @Jebman you should be installing one of these to tide you over while you suffer the snow drought in TX.

PSU sez this is a lock!

Weenies DO NOT JUMP due to shutout period coming up, and don't let long-range NWP drive you to despair.... May I suggest an additional elective: Guru Mashups: How to cherry-pick expert commentary to support your desired outcome

Interesting enough changes at 120 for sure -- let's see if there's more support from other models. And who are we kidding, what else is there to track?

1.5” here and precip stopped for now, which is great for the kids to get a chance to play without getting soaked by rain. 3rd accumulating event in 3 weeks, a pretty good start IMO. Best event of the fall so far.....