MountainGeek

I heard @Ji is helping make a few minor changes -- 0z runs will have digital blue, purple, and pink from Pascagoula to Boston.

I'd hate to see a snowstorm interrupt your deep sun angle discussions.

GFS will shift north - by Friday we'll be worried about it tracking over Pittsburgh.

Reposting from LR thread: LWX at least on board for a chance.

Well LWX not entirely dismissing the threat:

I can't say I hate us being towards the northern edge with this setup around 100 hrs out........just need to get the storm strong enough to suck cold air down from the stratosphere and we should be rockin'!

it really isn't that hard to make a distinction between the "WHAT" (our current warmer base state and its impacts on sensible weather) and the "WHY" attribution posts (AGW, green men on the moon, underwater surface-level volcanoes, cow farts, etc). "WHAT" is unavoidable and is clearly a necessary part of the disco, whereas the "WHY" belongs in the other threads. I think some people are being deliberately obtuse in their refusal to recognize the distinction -- so unless a mod wants to start moving all the "WHY" posts to the proper threads it will unfortunately probably continue.

Consulting weenie handbook to keep the positive vibes going on the thread...... 1) The big ones are sniffed out early 2) Jan 2016 was modeled as a rainstorm about this far out

Is it a bad sign that we have 2 pages of discussion on what to NAME the new long range disaster thread? Although I guess a thread can't go off the rails if it was never on the rails in the first place....

Some sleet here. Hopefully can score a dusting tonight to take the season total to 1.75”

55/42, pressure rising. Let's do this!

Decent chance for first flakes for many -- I suppose we have to start somewhere.

You must not have heard what happened to the last guy who tried?

Truly epic! Words fail me.....

What's storm mode? Falling iguana warning?

Are you offering a Stormtracker PBP to get us back on track?

You must be new here?

1961-1969: Both decades had 63 storms within the search criteria - 750 miles of ATL (arbitrary, but picked to try to filter storms that didn't significantly impact GOM or W ATL ). The 1960s seem to have a higher number of high-intensity storms in GOM, whereas 1950s have more in the W ATL/eastern seaboard. Of course, this could all be backwards and hurricane intensity is just another effect of other pattern drivers rather than cause.....

Wondering if ACE might obscure the distinctions of hurricane track/location. 12 CAT5's grazing Bermuda wouldn't have the same impact they would in the GOM. 1951-1959:

@psuhoffman - have you ever looked into potential correlation between ACE (especially in GOM and eastern seaboard), # of CONUS landfalling hurricanes, and the following winters? Obviously there's a ton of factors all mixed in that create a given winter "state", but just curious if we have a very mild hurricane season, how much heat energy does NOT get dissipated in the summer/fall and then rolls into GOM/Western ATL SSTs, tending to feed SER and WAR. Overall ACE could be misleading as well, since I'd think a GOM hurricane would have a lot more effect than something hitting Bermuda and hooking back east.

TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result. Hence the super-nino pattern in California.

Hang on a few more minutes -- it's ripping SN+ here.

NAM sez "RGEM hold my beer".....