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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. Paleocene
    boomin out over the great dismal swamp
  2. Paleocene
    NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.
  3. Paleocene
    Erm
  4. Paleocene
    Ha ha ... I get the NAM IS BAD MEME but I'm serious about it getting the gradient right in December. And met-taggers discussion that it did well versus the globals
  5. Paleocene
    Does anyone else remember the NAM doing pretty well with the big december storm, especially in regard to the R/S gradient line? Gonna be on that NAM this weekend for this setup.
  6. Paleocene
    Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours. 12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.
  7. Paleocene
    verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter
  8. Paleocene
  9. Paleocene
    Pray for thump--->dry slot verbatim on this one.
  10. Paleocene
    thumpage? before rain...
  11. Paleocene
  12. Paleocene
    it's runnin! i'm ready to post some inaccurate analysis
  13. Paleocene
    Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same.
  14. Paleocene
    Thought it was a rain shower that moistened the streets here in the UHI last evening but a quick morning walk revealed some graupel in the colder areas, especially on grass and mulch. That brings this thrilling season up to flurries twice in december, 1.5 inches of snow before heavy rain in the December storm, and graupel today. Better luck next week
  15. Paleocene
    minor changes from 00z to 12z at d10 lol
  16. Paleocene
    Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. still much to learn!
  17. Paleocene
    I have called things wrong before as a n00b but it looks like the euro is about to crank up a weenie run post d8 on 12z... will add maps shortly edit: lesson: do not comment on model runs until they over :-D
  18. Paleocene
    A lot of this happens after D7 (post 168 hour mark). We flirt with above freezing in the afternoon next wednesday, but verbatim surface maps show most/all of this as snow NW of 95
  19. Paleocene
    Panel 174 also shows snow over DC
  20. Paleocene
  21. Paleocene
    yeah *bit* of a difference with the interaction with the NS 500mb low...they stay separate on 18z 12z... gobbles up the NS shortly thereafter.
  22. Paleocene
    will it turn the corner? that weak LP north of hte lakes was not there on 12z GFS. primary is much further south this run too
  23. Paleocene
    It's about time to crack open a crispy boy and watch the GFS flip completely to rain for the D9 threat dump feet of snow over the metro corridor . Happy happy hour everyone. On a serious note, there is a sliiightly stronger high over the north central plains at D7 on the 18z GFS run. Compared to 12z. Fingers crossed for some digital ice.
  24. Paleocene
  25. Paleocene
    Euro (top) versus GFS (next post)
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