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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. Paleocene
    That's a decent slug of sleet on the 3k NAM from roughly MD 200 / MD 32 south. IDGAF I'll take the glacier.
  2. Paleocene
    Thru 49 hours. Possibly some wraparound to come later after a dry period.
  3. Paleocene
    "As this surface low deepens and move east, impressive moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico within a corridor of intensifying isentropic ascent, especially within the 290-295K surfaces. Here, mixing ratios climb to 4-6 g/kg, reflective of the impressive moist driven by the warm advection, further evidenced by PW anomalies surging to above the 97th percentile according to NAEFS." we're pulling that good gulf juice into this baby. Visible on those nam charts ravens is pulling
  4. Paleocene
    First law of 12k NAM: if it's showing a lot of snow, believe in the power of being NAM'd Second law of 12k NAM: if it's showing not enough snow, it's dead wrong and a booty cheeks model
  5. Paleocene
    What's your definition of lowlands. How far from the fall line?
  6. Paleocene
    Puking thicc fatties with a stiff breeze in the 20910. Sick
  7. Paleocene
    Some preliminary mangled flakes coming down in Silver Spring now. Cloud cover got way thicker since 2pm, when the sun was breaking through in spots still. Squall line looks to be headed through fairfax soon.
  8. Paleocene
    This looks like a reasonable call at this stage. And it's nice to finally have a map where it's a solid stripe region wide, without gradations running SW-->NE, where the mountains/piedmont get snow, and we in the metro corridor/fall line and lowlands get mix. Reminds me of the January storms last winter.
  9. Paleocene
    Sun's out in Silver Spring
  10. Paleocene
    Inside the DC beltway and Southern Maryland getting 8+ inches? Would be super cool. But I'll believe that once we see runs of that for the next 48 hours straight lol.
  11. Paleocene
    Good God the willingness to cliff jump over the icon...
  12. Paleocene
    This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers. But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals?
  13. Paleocene
    Don't shorten the posts! Many of us are eager to learn more.
  14. Paleocene
    time to bring this back up to remind people to post here instead of the LR thread. GFS 18z run for monday was booty cheeks for i-70 corridor and north. i'll take my 2-3 inches that won't accumulate on hot urban corridor roads!
  15. Paleocene
    You mean it's not going to snow 24" in Augusta, GA?
  16. Paleocene
    That GFS run is also cold as heck next week after our snow. Snow should stick around.
  17. Paleocene
    NAMd
  18. Paleocene
    Goal: flakes that stick
  19. Paleocene
    Moving towards euro/UK
  20. Paleocene
    As we have seen with past storms The exact position of the stripe is never modeled accurately until 24 hours or less. Even that it's not always right, sometimes off by 50 plus miles. Euro looks great and I wouldn't sweat it DC and points north
  21. Paleocene
    What was the DC beltways largest accumulation since the 2016 blizzard? I'd die for a foot plus
  22. Paleocene
    That gfs run looked pretty good to me.
  23. Paleocene
    Nice. I live between two creek valleys on a hill, so I'll accumulate wind chill with no trouble
  24. Paleocene
    Can cold air accumulate?
  25. Paleocene
    Hot with sprinkles
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