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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. Paleocene
    First law of 12k NAM: if it's showing a lot of snow, believe in the power of being NAM'd Second law of 12k NAM: if it's showing not enough snow, it's dead wrong and a booty cheeks model
  2. Paleocene
    What's your definition of lowlands. How far from the fall line?
  3. Paleocene
    Puking thicc fatties with a stiff breeze in the 20910. Sick
  4. Paleocene
    Some preliminary mangled flakes coming down in Silver Spring now. Cloud cover got way thicker since 2pm, when the sun was breaking through in spots still. Squall line looks to be headed through fairfax soon.
  5. Paleocene
    This looks like a reasonable call at this stage. And it's nice to finally have a map where it's a solid stripe region wide, without gradations running SW-->NE, where the mountains/piedmont get snow, and we in the metro corridor/fall line and lowlands get mix. Reminds me of the January storms last winter.
  6. Paleocene
    Sun's out in Silver Spring
  7. Paleocene
    Inside the DC beltway and Southern Maryland getting 8+ inches? Would be super cool. But I'll believe that once we see runs of that for the next 48 hours straight lol.
  8. Paleocene
    Good God the willingness to cliff jump over the icon...
  9. Paleocene
    This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers. But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals?
  10. Paleocene
    Don't shorten the posts! Many of us are eager to learn more.
  11. Paleocene
    time to bring this back up to remind people to post here instead of the LR thread. GFS 18z run for monday was booty cheeks for i-70 corridor and north. i'll take my 2-3 inches that won't accumulate on hot urban corridor roads!
  12. Paleocene
    You mean it's not going to snow 24" in Augusta, GA?
  13. Paleocene
    That GFS run is also cold as heck next week after our snow. Snow should stick around.
  14. Paleocene
    NAMd
  15. Paleocene
    Goal: flakes that stick
  16. Paleocene
    Moving towards euro/UK
  17. Paleocene
    As we have seen with past storms The exact position of the stripe is never modeled accurately until 24 hours or less. Even that it's not always right, sometimes off by 50 plus miles. Euro looks great and I wouldn't sweat it DC and points north
  18. Paleocene
    What was the DC beltways largest accumulation since the 2016 blizzard? I'd die for a foot plus
  19. Paleocene
    That gfs run looked pretty good to me.
  20. Paleocene
    Nice. I live between two creek valleys on a hill, so I'll accumulate wind chill with no trouble
  21. Paleocene
    Can cold air accumulate?
  22. Paleocene
    Hot with sprinkles
  23. Paleocene
    Yeah, it melted during the dry slot. I remember looking at the forum and people frolicking in continuing snowfall to the north while we mixed and melted. I was in tkpk at the time.
  24. Paleocene
    Yeah, 2014 was a big disappointment inside the DC beltway.
  25. Paleocene
    With a DC/moco/pgc jackpot of probability. Book it.
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