Paleocene

18z icon looks like it'll take the ol' northerly route up to michigan if it went past 120 hours. love that <3

Meh. For 48 hour QPF at D7+ I would expect some pretty major dispersion. If it looked like this inside D5, I would agree with you.

Which results in some major differences lol. Euro 12z precip Euro AI 12z precip (it's faster so slightly earlier panel)

Euro AI and Euro are... different. at 500mb.

With the primary jumping from Indianapolis to Wilmington

Thump to rain on the GFS.

I don't like this super bowl or this moral priestly version of ravensrule

My twelve year old son is now a man thanks to bad Bunny

Agreed. Darnold is playing it safe, and he has no reason not to. That was my biggest wildcard for this game.. which darnold is gonna show up.

Lol people who bet the under on total score are probably feeling pretty good. It was 44.5 before the game

Lol sorry and no harm meant to DE. His incessant mentions of the place drove me a bit nuts. I have friends and relatives there, and since I moved to the DC area as an adult, it's one of my favorite escapes to get out to the shore (and to Milton for DFH). The grey wizard is now on my ignore list.

What's Delaware? Is that a county on Maryland's Eastern shore?

Yes, and the EPS has really just clued in on this solution over the last few runs. More changes expected lol

Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake.

Low positions on the EPS aren't bad. You can see how the operational euro was well NW of this mean. Temps marginal, better for NW, like the rest of the 12z of all models. Well, I've been reeled in by the trends of the last 4 runs; time to pay attention for the next day or two

Indeed. Newest addition to the weenie handbook. Chapter IX, "Surface Temps on Global Models," new entry in part A.3, line 25: "global AI models are approximately 5-10 degrees too warm in DJFM"

Also the 12z UKMET looks half decent to my eyes. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens. However, closed off 500mb low, over central MS/AL, neutral (going neg soon maybe) on the last panels on pivotal. Some CAD in place but not super cold in the mid-atlantic. One thing I'm trying to learn about. How does one predict what will happen to the cold air in place based on 500mb charts?

Didn't see anyone discuss the 12z AIGFS, sorry if I missed that. It still drives the precip up the ohio river valley, but you can see the trend SE with precip over the last 4 runs. Temps are way warm; no idea how that model handles temps.

Agreed wholeheartedly. I don't want to look at snow maps, surface maps, or snow means for threats D6+ out. A long range pattern analysis thread is helpful for figuring out whether or not I need to pay attention. Speaking for myself I feel like I've learned a lot about how to read/track threats that are more real, i.e. inside 72 hours. I feel like I "get" thermals at different layers, low positions, wind direction, even the 500mb charts to understand phasing, ULLs, etc. But the big picture pattern/teleconnections are still a partial mystery to me. So having one place here to read about that really helps.

My neighbor has a couple beautiful river birch trees that hang over my driveway. They drop sticks like it's their job during windstorms. The annual stick crop is plentiful

Gusts are blowing the powder that fell last night around in snow clouds and whirlwinds in my backyard. Cool how we now have the climate of Saskatchewan

I've got a solid tenth on my deck rails.

Enough to stick to leaves/trees/car topper etc here in the close in northern DC burbs. Pretty! Still sn

super light snow/flurries in silver spring.

Dry Air in Silver Spring