Paleocene
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Everything posted by Paleocene
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Yes, lets hope those puppies are gone at 00z or 06z. We're reeling this sucker in. No fish storm
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18z EPS left, 12z right. MSLP members. Tuck baby tuck! Still a cluster of far southeast outliers
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euro 18z left, 12z right. 500/vort valid sat 18z. looks much better on the left, which is why we saw the surface improvemnt
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someone extrapolate the NAM
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GOOFUS is running. Here's the operational MSLP of the last 6 runs... hopping all over the place with really wide spread. I'm not out until probably 00z tonight if everything is consistently offshore through 12z/18z.
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ICON is OTS
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Made this gif of the EPS mslp 06, 12, 18z. valid sunday 06z. good bounce back at 18z today. you can see the spread was a bit greater at 06z with some way inland outliers that have been cleaned up.
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Man, this thing bombs out on the 18z euro (just like the 12z CMC today). 969mb 100 miles east off norfolk
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18z euro running, our friends across the pond will save us
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Lol claiming that this thing is cooked is ridiculous. It could very well go the way we want it, miss just offshore, or miss further offshore. The trend this season has been for N and W shifts. We saw last week that NS interactions are very hard to pin down more than 72 hours in advance. We gotta be patient before we toss this or claim victory
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Myrtle Beach jackpots are super common so I'm sure the GFS is correct
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euro didn't show a 30" blizzard at 12z, this is the worst modeling disaster in the history of the world
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12z CMC: Man that low gets deeper... 976mb 100 miles off OCMD (06z sunday) Then 963mb (jesus h) when it's moved towards benchmark then 955mb (!!!!) when it's just south of Nantucket. Goodbye southern new england lol textbook KU uppercut punch?
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Is this good? I think this is good.
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GFS is fine, just late. Honestly the 500mb charts re: ridge and position of the vorts don't look that different to me but I'm a newb.
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On to the next JV model, the GFS
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ICON is a Delmarva special. Good start to 12z.
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Very similar to Euro
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ICON More diggy, but less deep, positively tilted trough over ohio river valley at 114 hours. tilts toward neutral by 120 (12z sat) just like 06z euro
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ICON looks like it is about to swing an uppercut. I'm only out to 102 hours
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King ICON is running... 12z suite begins peeps
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subtract an hour from your euro times and yes, that's about right.
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I think this threat is close enough that it merits a thread to preserve true long run (day 6+) discussion for this thread. However, I'd love to see consistency thru 18z today...
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No doubt, and no disrespect to them. Don't envy their jobs today, this is nearly a worst case scenario for road cleanup. I don't expect my street to get touched until later today or maybe even tomorrow. I'm glad we have supplies and my wife and I can work at home with the kids off school.
