JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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There has been a noticeable shift SW on the last 3 runs of the ICON for sure.
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It's dynamics plus the extent of the cold air. I just noticed the 50-55 kt 925 MB winds at hour 99 on the backside. Sheesh. (Although the GFS is usually too wet this far out)
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Temp of 4 degrees, moderate snow and 30 MPH winds seems fun. 1004 MB surface low to 989 MB in 6 hours and still dropping rapidly.
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Yeah, the cold is a sure thing. The amount of snow and how far south it gets is more uncertain. The one thing that has been happening is the Euro has been caving to the GFS more and more this year. Also stuff has been ending up farther west over time. Time will tell.
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I'll never forget that time that we were under a WSW and the system came out farther NW than predicted. Wichita looked at the satellite and immediately dropped all their warnings since all the models were wrong and it was tracking farther NW. Springfield stood their ground and were completely wrong as temps stayed too warm for snow.
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Kuchera ends up being a couple more inches because some of the snow falls in the teens and single digits.
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More 00z GFS ensemble members hopping onboard with some kind of snow with the system next week but there's still room for failure.
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Better agreement with the 12z GFS/Canadian as well. Snowfall amounts still not set in stone though.
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Still a large amount of ensemble spread on the 18z GFS for the 12/22 system so don't be surprised if next run is drastically different.
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The south/western shift on the models with the 12/22 system continues with the 18z GFS. Nice!
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12z Euro gonna have a different look for the storm on the 22nd. Interesting. Hope the models reel this one in.
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Ensembles will give you a broader picture when it comes to long range outlooks. They're best used to see a general pattern and to check if the deterministic (control) is an outlier. I remember a few years back we were looking at a snow event and following the ensembles and they all ended up being wrong. Had like a 90% chance we'd get snow drop to a 0% chance in like 2 model runs.
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GFS is still pretty robust with that system on 19th.
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Trend is still not great on the 00z GFS/GEM for snow before Christmas.
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I have concerns it ends up farther NE than what the OP Euro shows .
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Pass on the 12z runs. On to the 18z.
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And the Canadian was no fun at all.
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00z Euro with rain on the 19th and then waves of snow on the 21st-22nd with entrenched Arctic air and a SW flow aloft with the main system still coming together in the SW US at the end of the run.
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What a fun 00z GFS run tonight. Still has the snow on the 19th and then has a massive system on the 22nd/23rd and then maybe another system after that.
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It's so precarious. One small change in the flow/timing and we go from rain on the 19th on the 12z GFS to a snowstorm on the 19th on the 18z GFS.
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They are all having big run to run changes due to the pattern change. Ensembles still have that -EPO pattern going forward and that's going to bring the cold. Individual storms will show up as we get closer.
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Still looking good moving forward. Ensembles are a beaut. Knock on wood that nothing changes.
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You mean 2011?
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yeah, the -EPO this run is crazy. The ensembles have supported a look like that. Looks interesting for sure.
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Models are going to be interesting as the try to digest the strength/position of that block. With that being said, they are likely to be all over the place each run. Hopefully we'll get at least one storm tracking to our south giving us snow during the next couple of weeks. Tonight's 00z GFS run dumped 30" in Kansas and NW OK.
