JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Yeah the Euro shows promise every now and then for that system around the 10th-11th, but still a long way away and everything has to come together just right.
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Enjoying watching the snow on Kansas State game.
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Models are looking interesting after Thanksgiving for at least some cold.
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I did research on this area many years ago, Tulsa is a bit farther SW but in the same general area. I found this paper helpful at the time. https://mospace.umsystem.edu/xmlui/handle/10355/2462
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New thread for this year:
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El Nino winter coming up. I've seen mentions of 2009/2010 (Good winter), 2002/2003 (Great winter) and 2015/2016 (Poor winter) around the internet. Hopefully the El Nino will give us more moisture and hopefully it will be in the form of snow.
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Powerful storm system around March 3rd showing up on all the major models. We'll have to see what happens with that.
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Thunder sleet and freezing rain is pretty wild. I remember it doing that here a few years ago with a temp of like 12 degrees out.
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Freezing drizzle making roads pretty bad out there.
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The Euro with the ice?
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Yep, everything has to come together just right for this area and there was just enough cold air around. The really cold stuff might be here by next Mon or so and we'll see what happens.
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Probably like 1/2-3/4" of melty slush.
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So the GGEM/Euro did the best while the NAM was just awful like usual, right?
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And it's finally snowing here.
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Dry slot should pass to your south it looks like. Area to the N and W of the dry slot usually gets heavy snow.
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Mesoscale Discussion for area of heavy snow: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/2301250009.acus11.html
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Yeah, AR/MO still look good for the most part KS/N OK will have to rely on getting what they can from the backside of the system.
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Looks like you'll still get snow, but farther south storm track and precip rates that were unable to cause a changeover with the first part of the system.
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Springfield:
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4-6" with up to 8". 06z NAM models still held farther north.
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Small shift south on the 06z HRRR as well.
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Yeah, I'm hugging the 03z RAP currently.
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Always. Only hug the models you want to be correct. First rule of model watching.
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Yeah there's a nice -EPO that sets up in a few days, should bring the Arctic back south.
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00z GFS moved a bit back south.
