JoMo

00z RDPS with a shift NW as well.

Trough is more neutrally tilted on the 00z NAM with the 500 MB winds backing more to the south. Interesting NAM run, but, it is the NAM.

2-4" seems about right for a general snowfall for areas not in the Winter Storm Warning. Areas that sit under any banding will probably be on the higher side of that. Also, probably an area of 1-3" where that dry pocket ends up.

00z Euro is going the wrong way with an even more positively tilted trough.

NW Arkansas is going to get some beefier totals on the 00z GFS but man, that cutoff is sharp to the north.

Surface low location is pretty locked in. It'll move around a bit but no big changes this close probably. The bigger issues are how far north the snow is able to progress north which depends on the orientation of the system to the southwest and how the digging northern energy phases with it, and how quickly additional northern stream energy cuts off the progress of the moisture streaming north. In the perfect scenario the digging energy causes a part of the trough to tilt negative which slings the precip back farther north and west, which may happen for a brief period if all goes well. Getting the trough to be more neutral would be good as well but it probably won't last long as the additional northern energy will shift the winds behind it back to the north which shuts off the precip, and can be seen pretty dramatically on the 12z Euro snow maps.

00z Euro is also improving the look of the 9th/10th system.

00z GFS and 00z GEM didn't look too bad tonight. Nice to see the GFS ensembles come into better agreement as well.

Yeah, I saw the Chiefs are stuck in KC (supposed to be flying to Denver), as the airport has closed due to icing.

NW trend has started. Should be in good shape once it gets here, haha

Complex phasing situation over the southwest.

00z Euro did shift south a bit. Hopefully that continues but we'll see.

The 00z GFS sure is interesting for the Sunday storm. No Northern Plains system to screw things up, a more positive tilt to start which keeps it colder, a weaker system that matures at the right time for our area.

With the 12z Euro showing central Texas getting more snow than many of us.

Yeah, it definitely looks cold. 18z even had it reloading. We'll have to see how it all lines out with precip chances.

That's a very cold look on the 18z GFS. All sorts of high latitude blocking.

Check out the 00z Euro. Now that's cold. That's a crazy look.

The models are aligning with more of a -EPO look as we head into the first week of Jan. Merry Christmas!

New thread:

Been a pretty warm fall so far this year, let's see what happens this winter. It would be nice to see snow again.

Guessing we had probably 4" or so before it melted. Big flake size, it was very pretty, and then a few hours later it was almost all gone.

It's a freakin' snow globe out there. Big flakes, cached to the trees and it's coming down at an impressive rate.

Snow coming down at a good rate here now. It's accumulating due to the rate.

Eh.. for me it's the marginal temps and narrowness of the band of heavier snowfall and where that narrow band ends up.

00z GFS was south as well