JoMo

Even though it's far out for the NAM, it did have the 700 MB winds more back to a more southerly direction on the 18z compared to the 12z, lots of warm moist air from the south on the 700 MB temp advection map lifting up and over the cold temps. Also from the Springfield AFD. Useless. >8 inches: 15-80% (lowest near MO/AR border)

It's completely stupid and the public doesn't understand it. 10-60% chance of 6+" is completely useless as well because it goes from a slight chance to likely.

And a shift farther west with some of the heavier amounts as well. I'm just not certain how wide the bands will be since this is all based on frontogenic forcing.

18Z RDPS and ICON also giving snowfall on the backside of the system Sat night. The 18z ICON has shifted south a tad with the Tues system.

The 18z NAM is back to generating some snow Sat evening/night. Some 2-3" amount along the MO/AR border area in NW AR.

12z Euro was pretty similar to the 00z last night with snow amounts and location. It's snowing in the teens and single digits in some areas so the Kuchera amounts are probably closer to reality. Although I am concerned about the overall width of the main band. It all depends on how the 700 MB winds behave.

I'll take the 00z ICON for Sat night. Farther south than the 00z NAM.

Being in the bullseye 5 days out, what could go wrong? right? right?

Tues does look interesting. Those 45-50kt 700 MB SW winds on the Euro up and over a very cold airmass. Still a lot of ways this could fail though. EDIT: Also some of the early 18z models are coming in a bit more robust with the snow in some areas Saturday night.

29 and thunder snow. EDIT: And now it's a sleet mix.

Yeah, I haven't really liked the probabilistic based forecasting since they started it. I think it's unnecessarily complicated for most people to understand. So when they start throwing out the various percentages I tend to kind of tune it out.

That cutoff line is pretty crazy. Looks like some of the models are coming back south a bit. It's such a sharp situation where you get like 5" of snow and a mile away gets nothing but rain.

Tough forecast coming up but the winter weather threat is coming back soon.

Yeah, it's stopped here now but it was coming down at a moderate rate and left the roofs and grass covered again.

Bonus snow showers here tonight for some reason.

I just found out there's a website dedicated to saving the old songs and images and videos from TWC. They even list where some of the TWC personalities are now. Has all the jazz music they used long ago as well. If I ever get really bored or nostalgic, I'll have to listen to some of the clips and see if I can't identify a couple I remember really well but don't know the name of. Website is twcclassics.com

I watched the neighbors dog in its first snowfall zoomie around for a bit before he realized it was cold, and then he headed right back to the door.

I remember the days before weather models were online. A local TV station had a phone number you could call to get the weather forecast via recording from their weatherman. I used to call it about every 5-10 minutes when snow was expected to see if anything had changed or to just hear "The chance of snow is near 100%." Got excited every time. Eventually graduated to watching TWC, still remember some of those elevator/jazz music 'local on the 8's' sounds. Different world today with how easy it is to access the computer models though.

Looks like 5-6" in Joplin. I wasn't sure we'd make it there until the heavier bands started rolling through.

Always so serene on nights when it's snowing. Fresh blanket of snow covering everything and it looks like twilight outside.

In a decent band in Joplin right now. Coming down at a fairly good pace. Probably 2-3" or so, so far.

Winter storm warning extended northward to Joplin/Springfield as well. 4-6"

00z Euro moved NW as well but tighter with the gradient in NW Arkansas.

It feels very different, rooting for a NW trend instead of wanting no NW trend.

00z GFS shifted NW as well.