JoMo

Can't believe it's been 15 years since the Blizzard of 2011.

Ended up with around 5-6"

It's been really coming down. It's a very fine snow but it's pouring and stacking up quickly. EDIT: Looks like maybe 4-5" at 4:45 AM. An additional 3-4" is expected.

The clown maps are almost always going to be wrong. They are fun to look at but I can't recall the last time they've been right. I was more shocked at how wrong the 10:1 maps have been/continue to be. I was expecting 6" from the start but I'm not even sure that's going to happen now. This was always going to be a system with heavier bands of snow and an area of lighter snow outside of the bands, but the QPF was overdone outside of the expected bands.

Really bad modeling by pretty much all the models. They were definitely producing too much QPF. I still think there's a 25%-75% chance they verify though! Ah probability forecasting, can't be wrong!

That second band has a lot of work to do to reach the 6" mark for a lot of the Springfield CWA. I have doubts.

Weather is so strange sometimes. This is IMBY 2.3" of 10:1 on the 18z NAM with first system... On the 12z NAM it was 6.7" Somehow ended up with 9.3" of 10:1 on 18z NAM with both systems. On the 12z NAM it was 11". Not too bad despite "losing" 4.4" with the first system not hitting. 15.5 Kuchera on 18z NAM and 15.4 Kuchera on 12z NAM so gained 0.1 somehow.

I think 2nd system might save it. 18z NAM is ejecting it out farther west. 18z HRRR was pretty robust as well.

The low level dry air really eating the precip as it enters into MO later tonight. Also 18z NAM going farther south with the precip so far. I noticed Springfield changed the warning at about 10 AM to drop amounts to 6-13" when it was previously 8-13" earlier this morning.

I'm hoping this is the HRRR bias of concentrating on frontal interactions so it's kind of missing the lift farther north of the most intense interaction.

Depends on how cold the lower atmosphere profile is. Most models have the calculations built in, but it does sometimes overestimate.

I think the Canadian was the first one with the I-44 south look and has also had lesser amounts days ago.

Looks like the 00z Euro is going to end up farther south with the WAA precip so far. Overall bit more of a shift south but still good amounts.

I'm just along for the ride. It's just been fun having something to track. Models have their biases. In this type of situation though, you'll usually have steadier snow from persistent lift and then you'll have bands of snow with heavier amounts depending on where the various boundaries set up. For the WAA snows, if you look at the 850 MB and 700 MB temp advection maps you can see where the heavier snow sets up north of the strongest advection. It goes absolutely crazy on the NAM so that's probably why the higher amounts. The GFS/GDPS has this setup farther south and it isn't as strong. The vertical velocity will show the areas with persistent lift.

Only 23" of snow here and 25" in Springfield. NAM being the NAM.