snowmagnet

I’m in Fairfax City and temps are 36, dropped 1 degree. Still light rain with some flakes mixing in.

I prefer when they start conservative and increase totals. When they are too bullish, we end up not verifying (like the last storm).

The prospect of 0-6” makes everyone a little tense in here. It’s all good!

RGEM sucks. I have fallen for an over -performing RGEM too many times, only to be seriously disappointed.

Is the Euro AI on board for next week?

Can we just sacrifice this storm for something bigger later in the week?

How do the ensembles look for next week?

I’ve been waiting for the Euro to bring back the promised blizzard for next week. Hopefully we can hold it.

That’s the issue. It’s not going to be much, but schools cancel at a snowflake on Saturdays. At least in Fairfax Co.

2010 was similar. We had the great storm in December, but then it got very cold and dry for the rest of the month. Finally got one of the best weeks in winter history around here.

A crippling storm on Inauguration Day would work.

Boxing Day Storm

After the morning accumulations of around 6.5". it snowed all day but only increased about a half an inch from the pixie dust. Until now. I went outside with the dogs for a few minutes and we have bigger flakes again. Probably picked up about 2" in the past 2 hours.

Fairfax and PW co too

I haven't really seen a complete lull as we've had pixie dust snow since around 10 am. We had some larger flakes mixed in, but I think we've only picked up about 1/2 inch since 10 am. (Herndon area)

Anyone out towards Harrisonburg or Staunton? My husband is hoping to go to western NC tomorrow to visit his mother but doesn’t know whether to go 95 or 81.

I just went outside and measured again and it’s 5”, but now mixing with sleet. Need some heavier rates to overcome this out here in Fairfax. I cleaned off my board to measure again later.

I noticed that the WSW changed to up to 16” possible in some areas. Definitely looks to be the biggest snowstorm since 2019! I measured 4” an hour ago in western Fairfax Co. near Herndon.

Millville seemed right on target 3 days ago with his forecast of 8-12” for much of the area. All the models agree with the DMV being in the bullseye.

Yes please!

You are absolutely right. I learned this back in 2014 and 2015 when I really started to track the various models.

We often get overperformers from Coastals

Today is my 32nd wedding anniversary and reading the overnight pbp's is getting me off to a good start. I've been giving him updates on the snow the past couple of days, but he has to go over to Ji's FB page and tell's me it's probably going to snow. LOL. 32 years... Thank you all for the brilliant analysis of the overnight runs. I'm 5 hours ahead here in London at the moment so I have had to catch up this morning. The 0z run of the Euro seems like a good storm for the majority of this forum. Even those on the coast will get in on the action. I'm feeling pretty confident after so many consistent runs of the Euro. We fly back on Saturday, so I look forward to an extra long winter break next week.

We have over 100 pages of January medium/long-term outlook. I wonder if it's time for a thread... I'm 5 hours ahead in London on holiday, so in my calculation, this storm is only about 4 days away. Time for a storm thread.

I'm at Dulles waiting for my flight to France. I return on the Jan 4th, so I would appreciate an epic storm on the 5th or the 8th. Just throwing that out there..