snowmagnet

The 11th-12th has been a consistent threat for at least 5-7 days. It seems like it’s time

31.5 in western Fairfax with freezing rain in western Fairfax

I had the same questions this morning. Somebody’s app was showing 3-5” of snow tonight.

Phew. It’s been a stressful day on the page. This would have made everyone happy if we hadn’t been seeing all the crazy ensemble runs for at least 5 days. Total roller coaster ride.

Shouldn't we rely more on Ensembles this far out?

Ha ha. We love Folks... around here. Only from you. Looking forward to more pop's the new few weeks. Hope you don't need to sleep

Folks has 5 letters.

If I'm not mistaken, the RGEM clued into the warmer temps much earlier than the other models for our last system. The Euro and GFS were spitting out 4-6" and we were ignoring the RGEM with less snow and more rain in the immediate DMV. So maybe it will be right on the colder end this time.

Thanks. That is really helpful.

So is it going to be a wintry mix on Wednesday as well? I'm a bit confused on the timing. Is it rain to mix to ice to rain for Wednesday and Thursday?

Yeah- I'm a bit confused about all the pessimism around the 11-13th event. This has been showing up on and off for well over a week, and is getting more and more consistent. Several different ensembles have quite a signal for this range. I know we have been burned many times, and it's rare to have a 10 day signal. But we did in 2016 and Dec 2009, and others. It's not likely going to be a HECS, but it is definitely something worth tracking. Just because the pattern is good after the 20th doesn't mean we can't score a coup before then.

Wait... Who is hunting the HECS?

It's not always bad. We frequently have big warm ups a couple days before a big storm. I'm pretty sure we were around 70 a couple days before Blizzard of 2016.

Should have gotten an iPhone

Yes.. I just saw this yesterday on Facebook page : Severe Weather Europe A historic Storm Éowyn is nearing Ireland and will impact the coastal areas with life-threatening hurricane-force winds gusting 160-200 km/h. It is expected to arrive early Friday morning. ** Stay Alert ** Live tracking here: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/storm-eowyn-windstorm-ireland-bomb-cyclone-uk-north-atlantic-europe-mk/

Yesterday schools should have been closed. And yeah, these kids are used to coming to school in hoodies and crocs or sneakers. While most of our county has money, there are quite a large number of families that don't and also can't drive their kids to school when it's too cold to walk a mile. I volunteer with refugees and have been trying to get many of them warm clothes and coats, but many don't have any.

They clearly are not paying attention to teachers who have schools and classrooms that are 50 degrees or for walkers, or kids waiting at bus stops for 10 or more minutes. Many of the kids around here either do not own or don't have outerwear equipped for this kind of weather. And not all the parents are able to drive their walkers to school.

Wow. Where you live it would definitely make sense! There seems to be no rhyme or reason for school decisions sometimes.

I have a question for someone at NWS about the "Cold Advisory" that they issue. We all had a Cold Advisory that originally started Monday night which originally continued to Thursday at 10 or 11 am (which completely made sense). However, when I saw that they changed it to end yesterday, I couldn't understand why, I read the forecast discussion about it on Tuesday night to see what had changed, and they mentioned that they didn't think the temperatures met the criteria. However, most of the DMV entire area was forecast to be in the single digits (I'm in Fairfax county), and it was actually 6 degrees at my house at 5 am. It wasn't this cold on Tuesday when we did have a "cold advisory". I'm just confused about the criteria for the advisory if we didn't meet that today. I assume that is why several school systems went on time today despite it actually being forecast to be colder than Tuesday (and it was in reality as well).

Kind of like the 150 year snowfall in the South...

Thanks for that explanation since the stronger pacific jet has been bad for us the past several years.

It's only the 3rd week of January. Keep some optimism

I’m wondering if it’s time for a new thread… We need a restart for the end of the month into February.

There’s always the single digits to look forward to this week…

Just got home to Herndon from Fairfax City and the roads are completely covered with sleet. It’s 34.0 with a sleet/snow mix.