snowmagnet

Just now, Ji said:

the Jan 2019 storm comes into mind because it went from a 2-4 inch storm 36 hours before the event and kept increasting amounts every run up until gametime and even then...no model had us getting a foot lol

Was that the Bob Chill storm?  That's the last time we had anything good around here.  

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Precip is in the SW part of the forum late Saturday night and into DC after midnight.  yes, its always good to be measured around here but this isn’t a week out.  

Ninja’d by losetoa6

I thought it was starting Sunday evening through Monday (or Tuesday morning if we’re lucky). That was what I saw on the Euro. Regardless, it’s only about 5 days away! 

Remember when there was 12 hours in between the Euro runs?  I know the 0Z and 18 z are not as good, but it helps to have a little something in between.  

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. 

Yeah.   I recall that Fairfax had around 24" with the 1st round and about 12" a few days later.   Having close to 3 feet was definitely memorable, and I remember the flooding as well.  Couldn't even get anywhere around the beltway.

 Jan 2016 was the biggest snowfall I've seen from one storm.  I had 30" at my house.  

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting?

Am I wrong that our biggest storms are generally modeled this far out?  We never get a huge storm that pops up 96 hours before.  If this has happened, I haven't seen it.  I know we have had the rug pulled too many times to count, but... 

Just now, stormtracker said:

That's why I said, I wish this wasn't showing now.  There's nowhere else to go but down from here.   Gonna be a long week with the up and down, see sawing 

If I remember correctly, our biggest storms (Dec. 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2016), were pretty consistently modeled 5-7 days ahead of time.   We were only tracking  who was getting 18", 24", or 36"!

1 minute ago, H2O said:

That's hilarious.  I can relate!

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal?   I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments.  But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B.   I have never heard of a Heather A.  

7 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

How is it reportedly snowing in Bowie and a sleet-rain mix in Loudoun County?  Pretty sure that has never happened before.

 

I was wondering the same.  It doesn't make sense.  It's still sleeting in Fairfax - no snow yet.

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out.

Didn’t January 2016 agree a week out? 

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

For whatever meteorological reason, the GFS snow maps have been like a slow tire leak the last three runs ...

From 24” to 2.4” is more than a slow leak. 

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

that hole over my house is pretty funny. I think God is really punishing me. I might be the Jonah of this board

Sounds about right- Jonah’s Wintry Mix. Confess. Did you buy a snowblower and curse us? 

Just now, LP08 said:

This...would be something

Is that snow hole over Ji’s house?  

I caught Jay’s FB post late last night after the epic GFS run, so I knew there would be a lot to read through this morning. We always need perfect ingredients to get a nice coastal storm around here, which is what the Euro showed on Wed/Thursday and what the GFS has now shown for a couple of runs.  I  do agree with someone else who says that the Euro often shows a storm in the long-term, loses it in the medium range and then brings it back.  I also recall a few winters recently that the Euro has not done great, which some have attributed to the strong Pacific. I’m hoping that the GFS is on to something because we all could use some purples, pinks, and greens around here. So I guess we all just hold our breath until 12z...

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

On the 12z Euro, it appears that H5 is a bit flatter out ahead of the system than it's 00z counterpart. Would be nice to score two solid advisory level events next week.

It would be better to score at least 1 warning level event next week.  

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years!  So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

I don't understand all the meteorological teleconnections, but I do know enough that the raging pac jet is a really bad thing.  I thought we were in good shape with a -NAO, -AO, etc, but when I saw the "pac puke" coming back this year, I knew we were in trouble.  I remember after 2016, it seemed that none of the long term models had any accuracy at predicting and I heard mets explaining that it was the extremely strong pacific jet wreaking havoc on long-term modeling.  I guess that is what is happening again and why we can't get any accuracy in the long-term.  Are there any teleconnections to predict when that might slow down or is that tied to whether the PNA is positive or negative?  I know we could use a +PNA with our blocking.  

If I remember correctly, last week there was a signal for something around the 20-22nd.  I would think that it is good that it is still there, or is back.  But we still have another week to wait.  

Do I still get 21" on the 27th?  

16 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Well @nj2va wanted upslope...he just got his fantasy HECS!  Would be epic.....

Bring that a little south, please!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger.  That storm is going to miss us.  Its going to screw us over.  And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens.  That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days.  Our legit threats are the period before that and after it.  

I'm ok with this... we are picking up our new puppy up your way in Hampstead the weekend of the 15th and I have been stressing over not being able to get there in case of snow.  It can snow the 12th and after the 16th...

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes...which are the least likely of those options

But the one most likely to produce a major storm.  It's always threading the needle around here. 

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

its time to get out my annual reminder

 

We are too North for southern Sliders

We are too South for Miller B's

We are too east for clippers

We are too West for coastal scrapers

We are just right for Miller A's

Still 58 in Fairfax. I love seeing drastic temperature drops, but I’m not staying up for this one. 

It’s raining much earlier than I had expected based on what I read yesterday. I can only imagine that doesn’t bode well to get a changeover to snow.  I guess the best we can hope for is snow showers on Friday.  

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think it was a Saturday night. Walked outside from a party to find 2 inches on the ground and snow winding down. Totally unexpected and was like wtf.

I was trying to remember when this storm was. I went into a Caps game in Landover in a warm rainstorm.  When we came out, everyone was freezing and we couldn’t find our car on the parking lot. That was a really memorable day.