snowmagnet

Just below Blue Ball, PA sits Intercourse. Gotta love the towns in Amish country.

Eric Webb says that actual snow is over-performing down south- verifying closer to HRRR. Good news for us, maybe…

Before I found this forum in 2015, I used to follow him and watch all his videos. They were really informative for amateur snow lovers like me. However, he was pretty obnoxious at that point and he had a hard time admitting when he was wrong. It’s weather. No one gets this right all the time. However, I think he’s really gone off the deep end over the past few years and his forecasts are pretty far off. Even for the past couple of storms that seemed fairly easygoing get in range.

Works for me. 30 miles would give me the orange.

I thought I was in the MLK thread and my heart skipped a beat! I thought the GFS was coming back to save us tomorrow! Oh well. Just a week away! Nothing can change.

I’ll hug this until Monday.

I want to clarify something. I know that the snow looks to be changing to more sleet and warm up to rain west of DC, but the ground will still be considerably cold for this. How significant will the sleet and freezing rain be in the I-95 corridor?

He hasn't done well at all this year. Way under, and way over for the last 2 storms, but he used to do really well with his maps. Back in 2013-2015, he was often forecasting way higher than anyone else and was pretty accurate most of the time. Here's to hoping he might have a magical DT model and get this one right!

That’s always my hope with these storms. It’s happened before!

Anything on the Euro for next week?

Lock it! This may get us through the weekend.

The storm hasn’t happened yet. We can’t determine which was right until the end.

Can we move that pink about 60 miles east?

Is the GFS showing a changeover to sleet/rain and back to snow with deformation?

Looks similar to the Euro maps you posted earlier… at least for mby.

What is approximate start time on Euro for south and western DC burbs?

Isn’t this pretty close to the Euro ensemble mean from earlier today?

OMG. This is hilarious! Thanks!

Where is Jebman? We need some positivity around here. I could be in denial, but I don’t think anything is set in stone yet. Look what happened on Jan 3rd - from nothing to 6-12 inches with 48 hours notice. I don’t expect to have all snow, but we could end up with snow to sleet and back to a thump of snow. It definitely wouldn’t be the 1st time the models couldn’t figure out a coastal. I’m in Western Fairfax, so we are still in the game for a decent amount at this point, but I hope for some shifts eastward in the next 24.

Just skip over everything until the last page. Last night wasn’t good (at least for east if 81), but hopefully the rest of the day will continue the 6z trend and stop the ledge jumping.

For a mean, this seems pretty darn acceptable.

I was in Fairfax/Fair Oaks. The 1st storm that week gave us about 2 feet. The 2nd storm (I’m guessing that was the 12th) was about 10”-12”.

I thought it was a little low but realized it’s the Ensemble. Not bad at all.

Is there a key to this one?

On Saturday, the GFS was giving me 39.9” of snow by Jan 23rd. So the MLK plus the 22nd-23rd Storm should do the trick.